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Effective-Well Method for Matching and Predicting Oil Production

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Abstract

Decline curve analysis (DCA) is a traditional method for production prediction, which is still being used because it works in many cases and it is relatively simple to apply. However, DCA methods can neither match nor predict the fluctuating oil production during the early period when applied to entire reservoirs. The change in oil production may be because of variation in production conditions or the number of injection/production wells. In this study, we focused on the latter problem, change in the number of production wells. Obviously, there would be a significant oil production boost during a specific time period if more oil wells are drilled. The traditional DCA approach cannot match the increase in oil production due to the increase in the number of oil production wells. We have developed a method to match the oil production of entire reservoirs for the life span by considering the change in the number of production wells. The main idea of this approach came from the concept of effective wells. We applied this approach in several sandstone oil reservoirs with different permeabilities. The proposed effective-well model could match the oil production data in different reservoirs, even during the early period of production when the oil production rate change with time because of the variation in the number of producers. Comparison with the existing models (exponential, hyperbolic model, and harmonic models) was made and the results showed the proposed approach had the best fit to the production history in the cases studied.

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Abbreviations

D 0 :

Initial decline rate

n :

Decline index

Q :

Oil production rate

Q 0 :

Initial oil production rate

Q c :

Computed oil production rate of entire reservoir

Q EFF :

Oil production rate of effective well

R 2 :

Determinant of coefficient

SSR:

Sum of squared residuals

t :

Production time

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. China University of Geosciences, Beijing/Stanford University, 29 Xueyuan Road, Beijing, 100083, China

    Kewen Li

  2. Peking University, Beijing, China

    Yanyan Guan

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  1. Kewen Li
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  2. Yanyan Guan
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Correspondence to Kewen Li.

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Li, K., Guan, Y. Effective-Well Method for Matching and Predicting Oil Production. Transp Porous Med 91, 377–389 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11242-011-9850-6

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