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Dynamic awareness and zero probability beliefs

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Abstract

In this note, it is shown that in a Bayesian model with unawareness of impossible (probability zero), or vanishingly improbable, events, awareness can only change after such an improbable event has actually been observed.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

    John Quiggin

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  1. John Quiggin
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Correspondence to John Quiggin.

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Quiggin, J. Dynamic awareness and zero probability beliefs. Theory Decis 83, 309–313 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-016-9580-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-016-9580-x

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