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Theory and Decision

, Volume 61, Issue 4, pp 319–328 | Cite as

Uncommon Priors Require Origin Disputes

  • Robin Hanson
Article

Abstract

In standard belief models, priors are always common knowledge. This prevents such models from representing agents’ probabilistic beliefs about the origins of their priors. By embedding standard models in a larger standard model, however, pre-priors can describe such beliefs. When an agent’s prior and pre-prior are mutually consistent, he must believe that his prior would only have been different in situations where relevant event chances were different, but that variations in other agents’ priors are otherwise completely unrelated to which events are how likely. Due to this, Bayesians who agree enough about the origins of their priors must have the same priors.

Keywords

origin common prior disagree Bayesian 

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References

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Copyright information

© Springer 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.George Mason UniversityFairfaxU.S.A.

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