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Expectations, Disappointment, and Rank-Dependent Probability Weighting

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We develop a model of Disappointment in which disappointment and elation arise from comparing the outcome received, not with an expected value as in previous models, but rather with the other individual outcomes of the lottery. This approach may better reflect the way individuals are liable to experience disappointment. The model obtained accounts for classic behavioral deviations from the normative theory, offers a richer structure than previous disappointment models, and leads to a Rank-Dependent Utility formulation in a transparent way. Thus, our disappointment model may provide a clear psychological rationale for the subjective transformation of probabilities.

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Correspondence to Philippe Delquié.

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Delquié, P., Cillo, A. Expectations, Disappointment, and Rank-Dependent Probability Weighting. Theor Decis 60, 193–206 (2006).

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