Skip to main content
Log in

Creative destruction of computing systems: analysis and modeling

  • Published:
The Journal of Supercomputing Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The paper analyzes the problem of rational replacement of computing systems. Such systems, especially high-performance computers, are expensive, but quickly become obsolete. A system analysis of the replacement problem is provided and the relevant modeling problems are identified and studied. The obtained results give certain rules for calculating the optimal lifetime of computing systems, which are based on the given rates of technological change in the related computer industry. Two simulation examples estimate the optimal lifetime of PCs and high-performance computers in the current US economy. The results are in good agreement with other recommendations and existing business practice.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Akl SG (2004) Superlinear performance in real-time parallel computation. Journal of Supercomputing 29:89–111

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Boucekkine R, de la Croix D (2003) Information technologies, embodiment and growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 87:2007–2034

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  3. Business Tune-up: When is it time to replace existing hardware?. IBM e-Newsletter, 30 March 2004, http://www-1.ibm.com/businesscenter/smb/usen/contenttemplate/gcl_xmlid/16904

  4. Bylka S, Sethi SP, Sorger G (1992) Minimal forecast horizons in equipment replacement models with multiple technologies and general switching costs. Naval Research Logistics 39:487–507

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  5. Chand S, McClurg T, Ward J (2000) A model for parallel machine replacement with capacity expansion. European Journal of Operations Research 121:519–531

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  6. Cheevaprawatdomrong T, Smith RL (2003) A paradox in equipment replacement under technological improvement. Operations Research Letters 31:77–82

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Cooley T, Greenwood J, Yorukoglu M (1997) The replacement problem. Journal of Monetary Economics 40:457–499

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Economides N (2000) Real options and the costs of the local telecommunications network. In J. Alleman and E. Noam (Eds.), The New Investment Theory of Real Options and its Implications for Cost Models in Telecommunications, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 13–38.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Economides N, Skrzypacz A (2003) Standards Coalitions Formation and Market Structure in Network Industries, Working Paper no. EC-03–08, Stern School of Business, N.Y.U.

  10. Graham S, Snir M (2005) The NRC report on the future of supercomputing. CTWatch Quarterly, Volume 1, Number 2, http://www.ctwatch.org/quarterly/articles/2005/02/nrc-report/.

  11. Greenwood J, Herkowitz Z, Krusell P (1997) Long-run implications of investment-specific technological change. American Economic Review 87:342–362

    Google Scholar 

  12. Horan K (2004) Where are the jobs? BusinessWeek, March 22, pp. 36–37

  13. Hritonenko N (2004) Optimization analysis of a nonlinear integral model with applications to economics. Nonlinear Studies 11:59–70

    Google Scholar 

  14. Hritonenko N, Yatsenko Yu (2003) Applied Mathematical Modeling Of Engineering Problems. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Massachusetts

    Google Scholar 

  15. Hritonenko N, Yatsenko Yu (1996) Integral-functional equations for optimal renovation problems. Optimization 36:249–261

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  16. Hritonenko N, Yatsenko Yu (1999) Mathematical Modeling in Economics, Ecology and the Environment. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  17. Hritonenko N, Yatsenko Yu (1996) Modeling and Optimization of the Lifetime of Technologies. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  18. Hritonenko N, Yatsenko Yu (2004) Structure of optimal trajectories in a nonlinear dynamic model with endogenous delay. Journal of Applied Mathematics 5:433–445

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  19. Love CE, Guo R (1996) Utilizing Weibull failure rates in repair limit analysis for equipment replacement/preventive maintenance decisions. Journal of Operations Research Society 47:1366–1376

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  20. McClurg T, Chand S (2002) A parallel machine replacement model. Naval Research Logistics 49:275–287

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  21. Nasiri R, Moeini A, Abdollahzadeh A (2004) A new approach toward procurement of software models via distributed business models. Journal of Supercomputing 29:287–302

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  22. Oliner S, Sichel D (2002) Information technology and productivity: Where are we now and where are we going?. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 3:15–44

    Google Scholar 

  23. Oliner S, Sichel D (2000) The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: Is information technology the story? Journal of Economic Perspectives 14:3–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Sethi SP, Chand S (1979) Planning horizon procedures in machine replacement models. Management Sciences 25:140–151

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  25. State Administrative & Accounting Manual (1999) Office of Financial Management, State of Washington, Seattle WA

  26. Strohmaier E, Dongarra J, Meuer H, Simon H (2005) Recent trends in the marketplace of high performance computing. CTWatch Quarterly, Volume 1, Number 2, http://www.ctwatch.org/quarterly/articles/2005/02/recent-trends/.

  27. van Hilten O (1991) The optimal lifetime of capital equipment. Journal of Economic Theory 55:449–454

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  28. Yatsenko Yu, Hritonenko N (2005) Optimization of the lifetime of capital equipment using integral models. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization 1:415–432

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  29. Wu J.-J., Yeh S.-H., Liu P (2004) Efficient multiple multicast on heterogeneous network of workstations. Journal of Supercomputing 29:59–88

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  30. Zhu M, Cai W, Lee B.-S (2005) A hybrid analysis of an optimization approach for cluster applications. Journal of Supercomputing 32:191–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Natali Hritonenko.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hritonenko, N., Yatsenko, Y. Creative destruction of computing systems: analysis and modeling. J Supercomput 38, 143–154 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11227-006-7763-x

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11227-006-7763-x

Keywords

Navigation