Advertisement

Systemic Practice and Action Research

, Volume 29, Issue 3, pp 277–296 | Cite as

Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia

  • Atsede D. Tegegne
  • Marianne PenkerEmail author
  • Maria Wurzinger
Original Paper

Abstract

Projections on future population trends provide important decision support, however are confronted with high uncertainty. In contexts of low data quality, missing and contradicting knowledge on drivers of change, such as in many developing countries, participatory scenarios can support the quality of assumptions needed for quantitative projections. We present a scenario approach designed for contexts of uncertain and missing demographic data and illiteracy, which was successfully tested in three study sites in North-West Ethiopia. The four qualitative scenarios for 2030 supported the inter-subjective definition of assumptions for the calculations, which were again validated by members of the rural communities. We argue that the participation process has resulted in more robust and context-specific projections. The collaborative work on the local drivers of demographic change between science and society provided a valuable space for social learning, so that local stakeholders could identify the need for and scope of local mitigation or adaptation measures to demographic transformation.

Keywords

Participatory scenarios Population projections Transformative change Uncertainty Community research Knowledge integration Social learning Ethiopia 2030 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This study was carried out as part of the TRANSACT project, funded by the Austrian Development Cooperation under the framework of APPEAR (Austrian Partnership Program in Higher Education and Research for Development). The authors gratefully acknowledge the scenario team members and all the participants in the workshops, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. We are also grateful for the anonymous reviews.

References

  1. Alcamo J (2001) Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Experts’ corner report Prospects and Scenarios No 5. European Environment Agency, CopenhagenGoogle Scholar
  2. Al-Samarrai S, Bennell P (2007) Where has all the education gone in sub-Saharan Africa? Employment and other outcomes among secondary school and university leavers. J Dev Stud 43(7):1270–1300CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Amer M, Daim TU, Jetter A (2013) A review of scenario planning. Futures 46:23–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Babalola S, Fatusi A (2009) Determinants of use of maternal health services in Nigeria—looking beyond individual and household factors. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 9(1):43CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Bammer G (2005) Integration and implementation sciences: building a new specialization. Ecol Soc 10(2):6Google Scholar
  6. Banuls VA, Salmeron JL (2007) A scenario-based assessment model-SBAM. Technol Forcasting Soc Change 74(6):750–762CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Biggs R, Bohensky E, Desanker PV, Fabricius C, Lynam T, Misselhorn AA, Musvoto C, Mutale M, Reyers B, Scholes RJ, Shikongo S, van Jaarsveld AS (2004) Nature supporting people: the Southern African millennium ecosystem assessment. A contribution to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, PretoriaGoogle Scholar
  8. Billari FC, Graziani R, Melilli E (2012) Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions. J R Stat Soc A 175(2):491–511CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Blue L, Espenshad TJ (2011) Population momentum across the demographic transition. Popul Dev Rev 37(4):721–747CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bohunovsky L, Jager J, Omann I (2011) Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment. Reg Environ Change 11(2):271–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Bongaarts J (2008) Fertility transitions in developing countries: progress or stagnation? Stud Fam Plan 39(2):105–110CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Bongaarts J (2009) Human population growth and the demographic transition. Philos Trans R Soc B 364(1532):2985–2990CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Bongaarts J, Casterline J (2012) Fertility transition: is Sub-Saharan Africa different? Popul Dev Rev 38(Supplement 1):153–168Google Scholar
  14. Braito M, Penker M, Goergl P, Gruber E, Wytrzens HK (2013) Scenario method for integrating knowledge on demographic development in peripheral regions of Austria to 2030. In: First global conference on research integration and implementation. Canberra, and online, Sept 8–11, 2013. In: Bammer G, Deane P, Wain A: http://www.i2sconference.org/
  15. Central Statistical Agency (CSA) (2008) Summery and statistical report of the 2007 population and housing census: population size by age and sex. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Population Census Commission, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  16. Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and ORC Macro (2012) Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2011, Addis Ababa and CalvertonGoogle Scholar
  17. Central Statistics Agency (CSA) (2011) The 2007 population and housing census of Ethiopia, analytical report on population dynamics. Office of Population and Housing Census Commission, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  18. Central Statistics Agency (CSA) (2013) Population projection for Ethiopia 2007–2037. The 2012 inter-censual population survey, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  19. Chaudhury M, Vervoort J, Kristjanson P, Ericksen P, Ainslie A (2013) Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa. Reg Environ Change 13:389–398CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Chi G (2009) Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels? Demography 46(2):405–427CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Cuaresma JC, Lutz W, Sanderson W (2013) Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? Demography 51:299–315CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Dovlo D (2007) Migration of nurses from Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of issues and challenges. Health Serv Res 42(3pt2):1373–1388CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Enengel B, Muhar A, Penker M, Freyer B, Drlik S, Ritter F (2012) Co-production of knowledge intransdisciplinary doctoral theses on landscape development—an analysis of actor roles and knowledge types in different research phases. Landsc Urban Plan 105(1–2):106–117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Enfors EI, Gordon LJ, Peterson GD, Bossio D (2008) Making investments in dryland development work: participatory scenario planning in the Makanya catchment, Tanzania. Ecol Soc 13(2):42Google Scholar
  25. Funtowicz SO, Ravetz JR (1993) Science for the post-normal age. Futures 25(7):739–755CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Futures Institute, Spectrum (2013). http://www.futuresinstitute.org/spectrum.aspx. Accessed Dec 17, 2013
  27. Garb Y, Pulver S, Vandeveer SD (2008) Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling. Environ Res Lett 3(4):045015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Garenne M, Joseph V (2002) The timing of the fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Dev 30(10):1835–1843CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Gebreselassie T (2011) The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2005: how unique is Ethiopia? In: Teller C, Hailemariam A (eds) The demographic transition and development in Africa, the unique case of Ethiopia. Springer, New York, pp 19–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Gibbsons M, Limoges C, Nowotny H, Schwartzman S, Scott P, Trow M (1994) The production of knowledge: the dynamics of science and research in contemporary societies. Sage, LondonGoogle Scholar
  31. Goldstein JR (2004) Simpler probabilistic population forecasts: making scenarios work. Int Stat Rev 72(1):93–106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Häberli R, Bill A, Grossenbacher-Mansuy W, Klein JT, Scholz RW, Welti M (2001) Synthesis. In: Klein JT, Grossenbacher-Mansuy W, Häberli R, Bill A, Scholz RW, Welti M (eds) Transdisciplinarity: joint problem solving among science, technology, and society. An effective way for managing complexity. Birkhäuser, Basel, pp 6–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Hilderink HBM (2004) Population and scenarios: worlds to win? National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/550012001.html
  34. Hirsch Hadorn G, Biber-Klemm S, Grossenbacher-Mansuy W, Hoffmann-Riem H, Joye D, Pohl C, Wiesmann U, Zemp E (2008) The emergence of transdisciplinarity as a form of research. In: Hoffmann-Riem H, Biber-Klemm S, Grossenbacher-Mansuy W, Joye D, Pohl C, Wiesmann U, Zemp E, Hirsch Hadorn G (eds) Handbook of transdisciplinary research. Springer, New York, pp 19–39CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Hummel D, Adamo S, de Sherbinin A, Murphy L, Aggarwal R, Zulu L, Liu J, Knight K (2013) Inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to population–environment research for sustainability aims: a review and appraisal. Popul Environ 34(4):481–509CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Jager J, Rothman D, Anastasi C, Kartha S, van Notten P (2008) Scenario development and analysis. A training Manual on intergrated environmental assessment and reporting, Training Module 6. International Institute for Sustainable Development, UNEP. http://www.unep.org/ieacp/_res/site/File/iea-training-manual/module-6.pdf
  37. Kc S, Lutz W (2014) Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives. Popul Environ 35(3):243–260CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Keilman N (2001) Demography: uncertain population forecasts. Nature 412:490–491CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Koblinsky M, Tain F, Gaym A, Karim A, Carnell M, Solomon T (2010) Responding to the maternal health care challenge: the Ethiopian Health Extension Program. Ethiop J Health Dev 24(1):105–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Kok K, Biggs R, Zurek M (2007) Methods for developing multiscale participatory scenarios: insights from Southern Africa and Europe. Ecol Soc 12(1):8Google Scholar
  41. Lindelow M, Serneels P (2006) The performance of health workers in Ethiopia: results from qualitative research. Soc Sci Med 62(9):2225–2235CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Lindgren M, Bandhold H (2003) Scenario planning: the link between future and strategy. Palgrave Macmillan, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  43. Lutz W, Goldstein JR (2004) Introduction: how to deal with uncertainty in population forecasting? Int Stat Rev 72(1):1–4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Lutz W, Kc S (2011) Global human capital: integrating education and population. Science 333(6042):587–592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Mathauer I, Imhoff I (2006) Health worker motivation in Africa: the role of non-financial incentives and human resource management tools. Hum Resour Health 4(1):24CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Mcdonald D, Bammer G, Deane P (2009) Research integration using dialogue methods. The Australian National University E Press, CanberraGoogle Scholar
  47. Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) (2009) Population affairs coordination core process. Population and development indicators, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  48. Ministry of Health (MOH) (2010) Report of the Performance of Health Sector Development Program IV, Addis AbabaGoogle Scholar
  49. Murphy-graham E (2008) Opening the black box: women’s empowerment and innovative secondary education in Honduras. Gend Educ 20(1):31–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Nowotny H, Scott P, Gibbsons M (2001) Re-thinking science, knowledge and the public in an age of uncertainity. Polity, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  51. O’Neill BC (2005) Population scenarios based on probabilistic projections: an application for the millennium ecosystem assessment. Popul Environ 26(3):229–254CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. O’Neill BC, Balk D, Brickman M, Ezra M (2001) A guide to global population projections. DemRes 4(8):203–288CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Peterson GD, Cumming GS, Carpenter SR (2003) Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv Biol 17(2):358–366CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Pohl C, Hirsch Hadorn G (2007) Principles for designing transdisciplinary research. Proposed by the Swiss Academies of Arts and Sciences, Oekom, MünchenGoogle Scholar
  55. Price NL, Hawkins K (2007) A conceptual framework for the social analysis of reproductive health. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh. J Health Popul Nutr 25(1):24–36Google Scholar
  56. Rinaudo JD, Maton L, Terrason I, Chazot S, Richard-ferroudji A, Caballero Y (2013) Combining scenario workshops with modeling to assess future irrigation water demands. Agric Water Manag 130:103–112CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Ruiz-Mallén I, Corbera E, Calvo-Boyero D, Reyes-García V (2015) Participatory scenarios to explore local adaptation to global change in biosphere reserves: experiences from Bolivia and Mexico. Environ Sci Policy 54:398–408CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Scholz RW, Tietje O (2002) Embedded case study methods: integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge. Sage, Thousand OaksGoogle Scholar
  59. Serneels P, Lindelow M, Montalvo JG, Barr A (2007) For public service or money: understanding geographical imbalances in the health workforce. Health Policy Plan 22(3):128–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Shapiro D (2012) Women’s education and fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. Vienna Yearb Popul Res 10:9–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Shapiro D, Tambashe BO (2002) Fertility transition in urban and rural Sub-Saharan Africa: preliminary evidence of a three-stage process. J Afr Policy Stud 8(2&3):103–127Google Scholar
  62. Smith SK, Tayman J, Swanson DA (2002) State and local population projections methodology and analysis. Kluwer Academic Publishers, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  63. Stauffacher M, Flueler T, Kuutli P, Scholz WR (2008) Analytic and dynamic approach to collaboration: a transdisciplinary case study on sustainable landscape development in a Swiss Prealpine Region. Syst Pract Action Res 21:409–422CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Stephenson R, Baschieri A, Clements S, Hennink M, Madise N (2006) Contextual influences on the use of health facilities for childbirth in Africa. Am J Public Health 96(1):84–93CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Stokols D (2006) Toward a science of transdisciplinary action research. Am J Community Psychol 38:63–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Swart RJ, Raskin P, Robinson J (2004) The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Glob Environ Change 14(2):137–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Teller C, Hailemariam A (2011) The complex nexus between population dynamics and development in Sub-Saharan Africa: a new conceptual framework of demographic response and human adaptation to societal and environmental hazards. In: Teller C, Hailemariam A (eds) The demographic transition and development in Africa, the unique case of Ethiopia. Springer, New York, pp 3–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Thadeus S, Maine D (1994) Too far to walk: maternal mortality in context. Soc Sci Med 38(8):1091–1110CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. UNESCO (2012) Youth and skills: putting education to work. United Nations Educational. Scientific and Cultural Organization, ParisGoogle Scholar
  70. United Nations (UN) (2013) World Population Prospects. The (2012) Revision, key findings and advance tables, department of economic and social affairs. Population Division, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  71. Van der Heijden K (2005) Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation, 2nd edn. Wiley, ChichesterGoogle Scholar
  72. Vester F (2001) Die Kunst vernetzt zu denken. Ideen und Werkzeuge fur einen neuen Umgang mit Komplexitaet, 7th edn. Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt, StuttgartGoogle Scholar
  73. Volkery A, Ribeiro T, Henrichs T, Hoogeveen Y (2008) Your vision or my model? Lessons from participatory land use scenario development on a European Scale. Syst Pract Action Res 21(6):459–477CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Weeks JR (2008) Population: an introduction to concepts and issues, 10th edn. Wadsworth, BelmontGoogle Scholar
  75. Wilson T (2012) Forecast accuracy and uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics state and territory population projections. Int J Popul Res 2012:1–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Woldemicael G (2010) Do women with higher autonomy seek more maternal and child health-care? Evidence from Ethiopia and Eritrea. Health Care Women Int 31:599–620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Wollenberg E, Edmunds D, Buck L (2000) Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landsc Urban Plan 47(1):65–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Zapata MA, Kaza N (2015) Radical uncertainty: scenario planning for futures. Environ Plan 42:754–770Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Economics and Social SciencesBOKU, University of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria
  2. 2.Centre for Development ResearchBOKU, University of Natural Resources and Life SciencesViennaAustria

Personalised recommendations