Possible Estimation of the Solar Cycle Characteristic Parameters by the 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux
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Two independent methods for estimating basic parameters of the solar cycle are presented. The first of them, the ascending-descending triangle method, is based on a previous work by Tritakis (Astrophys. Space Sci. 82, 463, 1982), which described how the fundamental parameters of a certain solar cycle could be predicted from the shape of the previous one. The relation between the two cycles before and after a specific 11-year solar cycle is tighter than between the two cycles belonging to the same 22-year solar cycle (even-odd cycle). The second is the MinimaxX method, which uses a significant relation in the international sunspot number between the maximum value of a solar cycle and its value 2.5 or 3 years (depending on the enumeration of the even or odd cycle) before the preceding minimum. The tests applied to Cycles 12 to 24 indicate that both methods can estimate the peak of the 11-year solar radio flux at a high confidence level. The data used in this study are the 10.7 cm solar radio flux since 1947, which have been extrapolated back to 1848 from the strong correlation between the monthly international sunspot numbers and the adjusted values of the 10.7 cm radio flux.
KeywordsSolar cycles Solar radio flux Space weather
The authors express thanks to the providers of the solar data we used in this work. The monthly adjusted radio flux mean values from the Solar Data Services of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC): http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/solar-data/solar-features/solar-radio/noontime-flux/penticton/penticton_adjusted/listings .
None the authors has received funding for this work. The corresponding author (H. Mavromichalaki) is professor of the University of Athens, one of the co-authors (G. Lampropoulos) is student at the University of Athens, and the other (V. Tritakis) is research collaborator in the Research Center for Astronomy of the Academy of Athens. There are no conflicts of interest among the authors.
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