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Low-Frequency Type-II Radio Detections and Coronagraph Data Employed to Describe and Forecast the Propagation of 71 CMEs/Shocks

  • Radio Heliophysics: Science and Forecasting
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Abstract

Motivated by improving predictions of arrival times at Earth of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we have analyzed 71 Earth-directed events in different stages of their propagation. The study is primarily based on approximated locations of interplanetary (IP) shocks derived from Type-II radio emissions detected by the Wind/WAVES experiment during 1997 – 2007. Distance–time diagrams resulting from the combination of white-light corona, IP Type-II radio, and in-situ data lead to the formulation of descriptive profiles of each CME’s journey toward Earth. Furthermore, two different methods for tracking and predicting the location of CME-driven IP shocks are presented. The linear method, solely based on Wind/WAVES data, arises after key modifications to a pre-existing technique that linearly projects the drifting low-frequency Type-II emissions to 1 AU. This upgraded method improves forecasts of shock-arrival times by almost 50 %. The second predictive method is proposed on the basis of information derived from the descriptive profiles and relies on a single CME height–time point and on low-frequency Type-II radio emissions to obtain an approximate value of the shock arrival time at Earth. In addition, we discuss results on CME–radio emission associations, characteristics of IP propagation, and the relative success of the forecasting methods.

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Acknowledgements

H. Cremades and F.A. Iglesias acknowledge the funding of project CONVPICTPROM01 2007 of Universidad Tecnológica Nacional – Facultad Regional Mendoza. H. Cremades is a member of the Carrera del Investigador Científico (CONICET). O.C. St. Cyr, H. Xie, and N. Gopalswamy gratefully acknowledge support from NASA’s LWS TR&T program through grant 8-LWSTRT08-0029. The authors thank Ernesto Aguilar-Rodríguez and Craig Markwardt for their support on SolarSoft and IDL routines, Cathie Meetre for guidance on neural-network usage for automated density detection, Dibyendu Nandy for providing the full list of CME events corrected by the HNK method, and Ivo Dohmen for disinterested help, as well as the referee for helpful comments and suggestions.

The SOHO/LASCO data are produced by an international consortium of the NRL (USA), MPI für Sonnensystemforschung (Germany), Laboratoire d’Astronomie (France), and the University of Birmingham (UK). SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. The STEREO/SECCHI project is an international consortium of the NRL, LMSAL and NASA/GSFC (USA), RAL and Univ. Birmingham (UK), MPS (Germany), CSL (Belgium), IOTA and IAS (France). SDO/AIA and SDO/HMI data are courtesy of the NASA/SDO and the AIA and HMI Science Teams. This article uses data from the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog generated and maintained at the CDAW Data Center by NASA and the CUA in cooperation with NRL, from the CACTus CME catalog generated and maintained by the SIDC at the ROB, and the SEEDS project supported by the NASA/LWS and AISRP programs.

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Author notes

  1. F. A. Iglesias

    Present address: Max Planck Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Göttingen, Germany

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Facultad Regional Mendoza, Universidad Tecnológica Nacional, Mendoza, Argentina

    H. Cremades & F. A. Iglesias

  2. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    H. Cremades

  3. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    O. C. St. Cyr, H. Xie & N. Gopalswamy

  4. Department of Physics, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, USA

    H. Xie

  5. Annapolis, MD, USA

    M. L. Kaiser

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  1. H. Cremades
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  2. F. A. Iglesias
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  3. O. C. St. Cyr
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Correspondence to H. Cremades.

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Radio Heliophysics: Science and Forecasting

Guest Editors: Mario M. Bisi, Bernard V. Jackson, and J. Americo Gonzalez-Esparza

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Cremades, H., Iglesias, F.A., St. Cyr, O.C. et al. Low-Frequency Type-II Radio Detections and Coronagraph Data Employed to Describe and Forecast the Propagation of 71 CMEs/Shocks. Sol Phys 290, 2455–2478 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0776-y

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