Abstract
We test the reliability of helioseismic far-side active-region predictions, made using Dopplergrams from both the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), by comparison with far-side observation of solar activity from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO). Both GONG and HMI produce seismic Carrington maps that show strong magnetic-field regions, labeling predictions of far-side active regions that have a probability ≥ 70 %. By visual comparison of these prediction maps with STEREO extreme ultraviolet (EUV) Carrington maps, we determine whether or not solar activity, as evidenced as brightness in EUV, is observed at the predicted locations. We analyzed nine months of data from 2011 and 2012. For both GONG and HMI, we find that for approximately 90 % of the active-region predictions, activity/brightness is observed in EUV at the predicted location. We also investigated the success of GONG and HMI at predicting large active regions before they appear at the east limb as viewed from Earth. Of the 27 identified large east-limb active regions in the nine months of data analyzed, GONG predicted 15 (55 %) at least once within the week prior to Earth-side appearance and HMI predicted 13 (48 %). Based on the STEREO far-side EUV observations, we suggest that 9 of the 27 active regions were probably too weak to be predicted while on the far side. Overall, we conclude that HMI and GONG have similar reliability using the current data-processing procedures.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank P. Scherrer and A. Kosovichev for informative discussions on the use of helioseismology to make far-side active-region predictions. We would like to thank W.T. Thompson for his invaluable help with processing the EUV data. We also thank E. De Jong, M. Velli and A. Vourlidas for useful discussions of this research. Finally, we would like to thank the reviewer for valuable comments. The work of PCL, JRH and XL was conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology under a contract from NASA. The work of IGH was supported by the NASA Living with a Star Targeted Research and Technology Program. The work of CL was supported by NASA Contract NNH10CD50C. The STEREO/SECCHI data used here are produced by an international consortium of the Naval Research Laboratory (USA), Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Lab (USA), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (USA) Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK), University of Birmingham (UK), Max-Planck-Institut fur Sonnensystemforschung (Germany), Centre Spatiale de Liege (Belgium), Institut d’Optique Theorique et Applique (France), Institut d’Astrophysique Spatiale (France). This work utilizes data obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Program. GONG is managed by the National Solar Observatory, which is operated by AURA, Inc. under a cooperative agreement with the NSF. The GONG data were acquired by instruments operated by the Big Bear Solar Observatory, High Altitude Observatory, Learmonth Solar Observatory, Udaipur Solar Observatory, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, and Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory. The HMI data were provided by NASA through the Joint Science Operations Center for the SDO project at Stanford University.
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I. González Hernández is deceased.
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Liewer, P.C., González Hernández, I., Hall, J.R. et al. Testing the Reliability of Predictions of Far-Side Active Regions from Helioseismology Using STEREO Far-Side Observations of Solar Activity. Sol Phys 289, 3617–3640 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0542-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0542-6