Abstract
We studied the predictability of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux by using stationary and non-stationary time-series analysis techniques of fractal theory to find the correlation exponent, the spectral exponent, the Hurst exponent, and the fluctuation exponent of the time series. The Hurst exponent was determined, from which the fractal dimension and consequently the predictability was evaluated. The results suggest that stationary methods of analysis yield inconsistent result, that is, amongst the four techniques used, the values of the exponents show great disparity. While two of the techniques, namely the auto-correlation function analysis and the spectral analysis, indicate long-term positive correlation, the other two methods, specifically the Hurst rescaled range-analysis and the fluctuation analysis, clearly exhibit the anti-correlated nature of the time series. The two non-stationary methods, that is, the discrete wavelet transform and the centered moving-average analysis, yielded values of the Hurst exponent that are indicative of positive correlation, of persistent behavior, and also showed that the time series is predictable to a certain extent.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of the National Geophysical Data Center in providing them with the solar radio-flux data. They wish to thank the referee for valuable and very useful suggestions. They would also like to thank Somnath Mukherjee, the Principal of Dinabanhdu Andrews College, for his support.
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Ghosh, O., Ghosh, T. & Chatterjee, T.N. Multi-technique Analysis of the Solar 10.7 cm Radio Flux Time-Series in Relation to Predictability. Sol Phys 289, 2297–2315 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-013-0444-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-013-0444-z