Solar Physics

, 270:385 | Cite as

Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum?

Article

Abstract

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798 – 2010. The analysis shows that spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition toward an active Sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to that of cycles 12, 14, and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as much as 20±8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo theories.

Keywords

Cycle 24 Dalton minimum Prediction Spotless days 

References

  1. Charbonneau, P.: 2005, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 2, 2. ADSGoogle Scholar
  2. Hathaway, D.H.: 2010, In: Cranmer, S.R., Hoeksema, J.T., Kohl, J.L. (eds.) SOHO-23: Understanding a Peculiar Solar Minimum, ASP Conf. Ser. 428, 307. Google Scholar
  3. Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M., Reichmann, E.J.: 1993, Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 25, 1216. ADSGoogle Scholar
  4. Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H.: 1995, Solar Phys. 160, 393. ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H.: 1998a, Solar Phys. 179, 189. ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H.: 1998b, Solar Phys. 181, 491. ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. James, C.R.: 2007, Sky Telesc. 114, 24. ADSGoogle Scholar
  8. Usoskin, I.G.: 2008, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 5, 3. ADSGoogle Scholar
  9. Waldmeier M.: 1961, The Sunspot-Activity in the Years 1610 – 1960. Schulthess, Zurich. Google Scholar
  10. Wilson, R.M.: 1995, Solar Phys. 158, 197. ADSCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Wilson R.M., Hathaway D.H.: 2005, NASA Technical Report NASA/TP-2005-213608. Google Scholar
  12. Wilson R.M., Hathaway D.H.: 2006, NASA Technical Report NASA/TP-2006-214601. Google Scholar
  13. Wilson R.M., Hathaway D.H.: 2007, NASA Technical Report NASA/TP-2007-215134. Google Scholar
  14. Wilson R.M., Hathaway D.H.: 2009, NASA Technical Report NASA/TP-2009-216061. Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Aarhus UniversityAarhusDenmark

Personalised recommendations