Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 24
Article
First Online:
- 96 Downloads
- 13 Citations
Abstract
Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23. Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy).
Keywords
Sun: sunspot number Sun: prediction technique, geomagnetic activity index aaPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
- Dabas, R.S., Sharma, K., Das, R.M., Pillai, K.G.M., Chopra, P., Sethi, N.K.: 2008, Solar Phys. 250, 171. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- de Meyer, F.: 2003, Solar Phys. 217, 349. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Duhau, S.: 2003, Solar Phys. 213, 203. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Hathaway, D.H., Wilson, R.M.: 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18101. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Jain, R.: 1997, Solar Phys. 176, 431. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Joselyn, J.A., Anderson, J.B., Coffey, H., Harvey, K., Hathaway, D., Heckman, G., Hildner, E., Mende, W., Schatten, K., Thompson, R., Thomson, A.W.R., White, O.R.: 1997, EoS Trans. AGU 78, 205. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Kane, R.P.: 1978, Nature 274, 139. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Kane, R.P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 189, 217. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Kane, R.P.: 2007, Solar Phys. 243, 205. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Li, K.-J., Gao, P.-X., Su, T.-W.: 2005, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 5, 539. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Ma, L.H., Vaquero, J.M.: 2009, New Astron. 14, 307. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Nordemann, D.J.R., Rigozo, N.R., de Faria, H.H.: 2005, Adv. Space Res. 35, 891. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Ohl, A.I.: 1966, Soln. Dann. 12, 84. Google Scholar
- Ohl, A.I.: 1971, Geomagn. Aeron. 11, 549. ADSGoogle Scholar
- Schatten, K.: 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21106. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Sello, S.: 2003, Astron. Astrophys. 410, 691. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Svalgaard, L., Cliver, E.W., Le Sager, P.: 2004, Adv. Space Res. 34. doi: 10.1016/j.asr.2003.01.029.
- Svalgaard, L., Cliver, E.W., Kamide, Y.: 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L01104. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Thompson, R.J.: 1993, Solar Phys. 148, 383. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Waldmeier, M.: 1935, Astron. Mitt. Zurich 14(133), 105. Google Scholar
- Wang, J.L., Gong, J.C., Liu, S.Q., Le, G.M., Sun, J.L.: 2002, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 2, 557. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Wilson, R.M.: 1990, Solar Phys. 125, 143. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
- Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H.: 2006, NASA/TP-2006-214711, available at http://trs.nis.nasa.gov/archive/00000741/.
- Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H.: 2008a, NASA/TP-2008-215249, 20 pp., February 2008, http://trs.nis.nasa.gov/archive/00000773/.
- Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H.: 2008b, NASA/TP-2008-215413, 90 pp., June 2008, http://trs.nis.nasa.gov/archive/00000782/.
- Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H.: 2009, NASA/TP-2009-215687, February 2009, http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers.shtml.
- Xu, T., Wu, J., Zhen, S., Li, Q.: 2008, Chin. J. Astron. Astrophys. 8, 337. CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
Copyright information
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009