Can the Solar Cycle Amplitude Be Predicted Using the Preceding Solar Cycle Length?
- 68 Downloads
In this work, the evolution of the relationship between Solar Cycle Length of solar cycle n (SCL n ) and Solar Cycle Amplitude of the solar cycle n+1 (SCA n+1) is studied by using the R Z and R G sunspot numbers. We conclude that this relationship is only strongly significant in a statistical sense during the first half of the historical record of R Z sunspot number whereas it is considerably less significant for the R G sunspot number. In this sense we assert that these simple lagged relationships should be avoided as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.
KeywordsSolar Activity Solar Cycle Solar Phys Sunspot Number Group Sunspot
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Obridko, V.N., Oraevsky, V.N., Allen, J.H.: 1994. In: Baker, D.N., Papitashvilli, V.O. (eds.) Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program: The Initial Results from STEP Facilities and Theory Campaigns, COSPAR Colloq. 5, Pergamon Press, Oxford. Google Scholar
- Svalgaard, L., Cliver, E.W., Kamide, Y.: 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32. Google Scholar
- Wilson, R.M., Hathaway, D.H., Reichmann, E.J.: 1996, On the importance of cycle minimum in sunspot cycle prediction, NASA Technical Paper NASA-TP-3648. Google Scholar