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The Way Toward Growth: A Time-series Factor Decomposition of Socioeconomic Impulses and Urbanization Trends in a Pre-crisis European Region

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Abstract

The present study investigates long-term urbanization and suburbanization trends in a divided region of Mediterranean Europe (Attica, Greece). A time series (1965–2008) dynamic factor analysis of 14 indicators that reflect different aspects of metropolitan growth, allowed estimating the impact of economic expansion and social change on the local development path characteristic of the study area. To quantify the spatio-temporal propagation of socioeconomic impulses to local development, Attica was partitioned in two spatial domains, the ‘Greater Athens’ area (hereafter the ‘core’ district) and the rest of the metropolitan region (hereafter the ‘ring’ district). By integrating Multi-way Factor Analysis with Continuous Wavelength Transform and rapidity-of-change metrics grounded on complex thinking, the exploratory approach proposed here has delineated latent mechanisms of urban expansion, indicating substantial divergences in the development path of the two districts. While the ‘core’ district experienced population increase and settlement densification, the ‘ring’ district underwent a suburbanization process resulting in a moderate—and relatively slow—concentration of economic activities and social functions. Reflecting a non-linear propagation of growth impulses from urban to rural areas, the economic interplay between ‘core’ and ‘ring’ areas delineates a complex development path accelerating spatial polarization in central and peripheral locations. Our results definitely highlight the importance of ‘system thinking’ in regional studies, applied economics, and social research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Economia, Università degli studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Corso Gran Priorato di Malta, 81043, Capua, Italy

    Massimiliano Giacalone

  2. Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Research Centre for Forestry and Wood (FL), Contrada Li Rocchi Vermicelli, 87036, Rende, Italy

    Rosario Turco

  3. Dipartimento di Economia, Ingegneria, Società e Impresa (DEIM), University of Tuscia, Via del Paradiso 47, 01100, Viterbo, Italy

    Enrico Maria Mosconi

  4. Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale A. Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy

    Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo

  5. Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance (MEMOTEF), Sapienza University of Rome, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9, 00161, Rome, Italy

    Luca Salvati

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  1. Massimiliano Giacalone
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  2. Rosario Turco
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MG and LS wrote the manuscript; LSA revised the manuscript; RT collected and analyzed the data; EMM provided technical assistance, the bibliographic analysis and continuous research support.

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Correspondence to Massimiliano Giacalone or Luca Salvati.

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Giacalone, M., Turco, R., Mosconi, E.M. et al. The Way Toward Growth: A Time-series Factor Decomposition of Socioeconomic Impulses and Urbanization Trends in a Pre-crisis European Region. Soc Indic Res (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03124-7

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