Abstract
The current study examines the predictive validity of the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI) and the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (FSI) in identifying the location and timing of revolutionary situations in 26 countries that have popular mobilization movements within the last two decades. The results of case comparative analyses provide some empirical support for both the WGI and FSI measures in predicting the timing of revolutionary situations (i.e., the year preceding the onset of mass protest was often one of the most “fragile” time period in a nation’s pre-revolutionary history). However, these aggregate measures have low predictive value in identifying the between-nation differences in their relative risks of having a revolutionary situation (i.e., revolutionary nations are not necessarily countries with the lowest scores on measures of misgovernance and fragility). Possible explanations for these findings and limitations of the current study are discussed in terms of their implications for future research.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Notes
Based on its original coding and calibration (Kaufmann et al. 2010), both the general composite index of governance and the specific subcomponents of it are expressed in standardized units that range from -2.50 to +2.50. Low scores on these measures represent less governance.
The negative relationship between these two composite indices is due to the valence of their respective scales. Specifically, values on the WGI are standardized from −2.50 to +2.50 (more positive values are interpreted as having higher quality of governance), whereas composite FSI values range from 0 to 120 (higher values are interpreted as indicative of having greater fragility).
It is important to note that the so-called Purple Revolution of 2005 in Iraq was a metaphor for the elections in Iraq that happened that year, but these elections did not result in any protests. In contrast, the events of 2011 in Iraq were part of the Arab Spring, when people went to the streets in mass protest; the country had all three elements of the revolutionary situations in 2011 as opposed to 2005.
These additional supplemental analyses are not shown here but are available from the authors on request.
References
African Economic Outlook (2011, June 6). African Economic Outlook 2011. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Retrieved from http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/african-economic-outlook-2011/egypt_aeo-2011-25-en.
Agha, H., & Malley, R. (2012, November 8). This is not a revolution. New York Review of Books.
Akder, D. G., & Özdemir, Z. (2015). Comparing international dimensions of revolutionary situations: The cases of Egypt 2011 and Turkey 2013. Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, 23(2–3), 181. doi:10.1080/0965156X.2015.1116791.
Al Arabiya News Channel (2011, January 21). Salary Hike Comes After a Day of Protest: Jordan Hikes Govt Salaries in Face of Discontent. Al Arabiya News Channel, Retrieved from http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/01/21/134409.html.
Al Shalabi, J. (2011, February). Jordan: Revolutionaries without a Revolution. Confluences Mediterranee, 77. Retrieved from https://www.cairn.info/revue-confluences-mediterranee-2011-2-page-91.htm.
Aljazeera (2011). Price protests erupt across Algeria. Aljazeera. Retrieved from http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2011/01/2011166020620356.html.
Aljazeera (2012, September 26). How Sudan’s Bashir survived the Arab Spring. Aljazeera. Retrieved from http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/09/2012921164748873959.html.
Aljazeera (2016). Key facts about the war in Yemen. Aljazeera. Retrieved from http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/key-facts-war-yemen-160607112342462.html.
Al-Monitor (2013). Algeria: RND Party Head Resigns. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/01/algeria-rnd-head-resigns.html.
Arndt, Ch., & Oman, Ch. (2006). Uses and Abuses of Governance Indicators. Paris: OECD Development Center Study.
Barker, C., & Mooers, C. (1997). Theories of revolution in the light of 1989 in Eastern Europe. Cultural Dynamics, 9(1), 17–43. doi:10.1177/092137409700900102.
BBC (2011, December 1). Saudi Arabia accused of repression after Arab Spring. BBC. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15977980.
BBC (2017). Iraq profile – timeline. BBC. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14546763.
Beehner, L., & Young, J. (2014). Is ranking failed or fragile states a futile business? The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/14/is-ranking-failed-or-fragile-states-a-futile-business/?utm_term=.8e456f4fb674.
Bennani-Chraïbi, M., Fillieule, O., & Raillard, S. (2013). Towards a sociology of revolutionary situations. Revue Française De Science Politique (English), 5, 1–29.
Blanford, N. (2015). Rafik Hariri: In Lebanon, assassination reverberates 10 years later. The CSMonitor. Retrieved from http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2015/0214/Rafik-Hariri-In-Lebanon-assassination-reverberates-10-years-later
Blekesaune, M. (2007). Economic conditions and public attitudes to welfare policies. European Sociological Review, 23(3), 393–403. doi:10.1093/esr/jcm012.
Botha, F. (2016). The good African society index. Social Indicators Research, 126, 57–77. doi:10.1007/s11205-015-0891-z.
Boukhars, A. (2016). Mauritania’s Precarious Stability and Islamist Undercurrent. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/02/11/mauritania-s-precarious-stability-and-islamist-undercurrent-pub-62730.
Branigan, T. (2011). China's jasmine revolution: Police but no protesters line streets of Beijing. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/27/china-jasmine-revolution-beijing-police.
Carlsen, L., & Bruggemann, R. (2015). Fragile States Index: Trends and developments. A partial order data analysis. Social Indicators Research. doi:10.1007/s11205-016-1353-y.
Center for Systemic Peace (2010). Coup d’Etat, 1946-2010. The Center for Systemic Peace. Retrieved from www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/CSPCoupsListv2015.xls.
Chamberlain-Creangă, R. A. (2009). Research report. American Councils ACTR-ACCELS Title VIII Research Scholar Fellowship. Retrieved from http://researchfellowships.americancouncils.org/sites/researchfellowships.americancouncils.org/files/Chamberlain_fianl_report.pdf.
Collins, R. (1995). Prediction in macrosociology: The case of the soviet collapse. American Journal of Sociology, 100(6), 1552–1593. doi:10.1086/230672.
Cohen, R. (2000). Who really brought down milosevic? The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/26/magazine/who-really-brought-down-milosevic.html.
Dagdeviren, H., Donoghue, M., & Promberger, M. (2016). Resilience, Hardship and Social Conditions. Journal of Social Policy, 45, 1–20. doi:10.1017/S004727941500032X.
Erlanger, S., & Cohen, R. (2000, October 15). From a summons to a slap: How the fight in Yugoslavia Was Won. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/15/world/from-a-summons-to-a-slap-how-the-fight-in-yugoslavia-was-won.html.
Evers, M. M.(2014, July 15). The fatally flawed fragile states index. The National Interest. Retrieved from http://nationalintererest.org.
Fahmy, H. (2012). An initial perspective on “the winter of discontent”: The root causes of the Egyptian revolution. Social Research, 79(2), 349–376.
Fishman, R. M. (2011). Democratic practice after the revolution: The case of Portugal and beyond. Politics and Society, 39(2), 233–267. doi:10.1177/0032329211405439.
Fragile States Index (2016a). The methodology behind the Fragile States Index. The Fund for Peace. Retrieved from http://fsi.fundforpeace.org/methodology.
Fragile States Index (2016b). The Indicators. The Fund for Peace. Retrieved from http://fsi.fundforpeace.org/indicators.
Freedom House (2013). Iran. Freedom House. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-press/2013/iran.
Freedom House (2016a). Oman. Freedom House. Retrieved from https://www.justice.gov/eoir/file/888516/download.
Freedom House (2016b). Morocco. Freedom House. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2016/morocco.
Gaub, F., & Laban, A. (2015). Arab futures: Three scenarios for 2025EU Institute for Security Studies. Retrieved from http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Report_22_Arab_futures.pdf.
Ghabra, Sh. (2014, May 20). Kuwait: At the Crossroads of Change or Political Stagnation. Middle East Institute. Retrieved from http://www.mei.edu/content/article/kuwait-crossroads-change-or-political-stagnation.
Goodwin, J., & Skocpol, T. (1989). Explaining revolutions in the contemporary third world. Politics and Society, 17(4), 489–509. doi:10.1177/003232928901700403.
Gothoskar, S., Patel, V., Patel, V., & Wolkowitz, C. (1982). Documents from the Indian women’s movement. Feminist Review, 12, 92–103. doi:10.2307/1394884.
Grindle, M. (2010, June). Good Governance: The Inflation of an Idea. Faculty Research Working Paper Series. Harvard Kennedy School. Retrieved from https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=562.
Guerrero, K., & Kekly, A. (2016). Pet monkey in Libya uncorks deadly tribal clashes. CNN. Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/21/africa/libya-monkey-tribes-deadly-clash-trnd/index.html.
Gurr, T. R. (1970). Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Center of International Studies, Princeton University Press.
Hassan, H. (2013, March 13). How the Muslim Brotherhood Hijacked Syria’s Revolution. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/03/13/how-the-muslim-brotherhood-hijacked-syrias-revolution/.
Hayward, E. (2011). Morocco’s Constitutional Referendum: Context, Content, and Impact. The Washington Institute. Retrieved from http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/moroccos-constitutional-referendum-context-content-and-impact.
Hof, F. C., & Simon, A. (2013). Sectarian Violence in Syria’s Civil War: Causes, Consequences, and Recommendations for Mitigation. The Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. Retrieved from https://www.ushmm.org/m/pdfs/20130325-syria-report.pdf.
Hook, S. (1933). Towards the Understanding of Karl Marx, A Revolutionary Interpretation. New York, NY: Prometheus Books.
Human Rights Watch (2011, April 4). Djibouti: Allow Peaceful Protests. Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/04/04/djibouti-allow-peaceful-protests.
Human Rights Watch (2011, February 3). Sudan: Violent Response to Peaceful Protests. Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/02/03/sudan-violent-response-peaceful-protests.
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2007, March). The worldwide governance indicators project: Answering the critics. Policy Research Working Paper 4149. The World Bank.
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010, February). The worldwide governance indicators: methodology and analytical issues. Policy Research Working Paper 5430. The World Bank.
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Zoido-Lobaton, P. (1999, October). Governance Matters. Policy Research Working Paper 2196. The World Bank.
Keddie, N. R. (1995). Debating Revolutions. New York: New York University Press.
Knack, S. (2006). “Measuring Corruption in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A Critique of the Cross-Country Indicators”. World Bank Policy Research Department Working Paper 3968.
Knutsen, C. H. (2014). Income growth and revolutions. Social Science Quarterly, 95(4), 920–937. doi:10.1111/ssqu.12081.
Kurtz, J. M., & Schrank, A. (2007). Growth and governance: Models, measures and mechanism. The Journal of Politics, 69(2), 538–554. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00549.x.
Lenin, V. (1915). The Collapse of the Second International. Retrieved from https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1915/csi/v.htm.
Lee, S., Kim, S., & Wainwright, J. (2010). Mad cow militancy: Neoliberal hegemony and social resistance in South Korea. Political Geography, 29(7), 359–369. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2010.07.005.
Liska, A. (1992). Social threat and social control. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.
Malsin, J. (2015). Why the Arab Spring has not led to disaster in Tunisia. The Time. Retrieved from http://time.com/4154134/arab-spring-tunisia-anniversary/.
Manson, K. (2011, February 20). Pro-democracy protests reach Djibouti. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/001f94f6-3d18-11e0-bbff-00144feabdc0.
McCarthy, R. (2005). Lebanon cedar revolution withers. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/oct/22/syria.lebanon.
McDoom, O. (2011, April 20). Darfuris hold anti-government protests in Sudan’s north. Reuters. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-protests-idUSTRE73J7R520110420.
Miethe, T. D., Hart, T. C., & Regoeczi, W. C. (2008). The conjunctive analysis of case configurations: An exploratory method for discrete multivariate analyses of crime data. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24(2), 227–241. doi:10.1007/s10940-008-9044-8.
Nakanishi, Y. (2013). Strengths and weaknesses of thein Sein’s leadership. The Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia. Retrieved from https://kyotoreview.org/issue-14/strengths-and-weaknesses-of-thein-seins-leadership/.
OECD (2009). Practical guide to corporate governance: Experiences from the Latin American companies circle. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/daf/ca/corporategovernanceprinciples/43653171.pdf.
OECD (2016). Promoting investment in a fragile context: The OECD Iraq Project. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/mena/competitiveness/2016_06_Project_Insight_final.pdf.
Ottaway, M., & Hamzawy, A. (2011, January 28). Protest movements and political change in the Arab World. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Policy Outlook. Retrieved from http://carnegieendowment.org/files/ottawayhamzawy_outlook_jan11_protestmovements.pdf.
Ould Jedou, A. (2012). Mauritania: Dreaming about the fall of the military state. The Social Science Research Council. Retrieved from http://forums.ssrc.org/african-futures/2012/09/18/mauritania-dreaming-about-the-fall-of-the-military-state/.
Oxford Burma Alliance (n.d.). Saffron Revolution. Retrieved from http://www.oxfordburmaalliance.org/saffron-revolution.html.
Pollard, G. K. (2015, December). Burma/Myanmar’s nonviolent movement failures: why resilience and leverage matter. Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive. Retrieved from http://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/47844/15Dec_Pollard_Glenda.pdf?sequence=1.
Ragin, Ch. C. (1987). The comparative method: moving beyond qualitative and quantitative strategies. Oakland: University of California Press.
Ragin, Ch. C. (2008). Redesigning social inquiry: Fuzzy sets and beyond. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Rihoux, B., & Ragin, Ch. C. (2009). Configurational comparative methods: Qualitative comparative analysis QCA) and related techniques. New York: Sage.
Sayles, M. (1984). Relative deprivation and collective protest: An Impoverished theory? Sociological Inquiry, 54(4), 449–465.
Schneider, W. (2004). Ukraine's 'Orange Revolution'. The National Journal. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/politics/nj/schneider2004-12-14.htm.
Shah, A. (2013). The tensions over liberal citizenship in a Marxist revolutionary situation: The Maoists in India. Critique of Anthropology, 33(1), 91–109.
Sherwood, H., & Finn, T. (2011, February 25). Thousands join ‘day of rage’ across the Middle East. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/25/thousands-join-day-of-rage-across-middle-east.
Shuck, D. (2014, August 25). Remembering Belarus’s Denim Revolution. Heddels. Retrieved from https://www.heddels.com/2014/08/remembering-belaruss-denim-revolution/.
Skocpol, T. (1989). Reconsidering the French revolution in world-historical perspective. Social Research, 56(1), 53–70.
Slater, D. (2009). Revolutions, crackdowns, and quiescence: Communal elites and democratic mobilization in Southeast Asia. American Journal of Sociology, 115(1), 203–254. doi:10.1086/597796.
Smith Diwan, K. (2016). Parliamentary Boycotts in Kuwait and Bahrain Cost Opposition. The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Retrieved from http://www.agsiw.org/parliamentary-boycotts-in-kuwait-and-bahrain-cost-opposition/.
Snyder, R. S. (1999). The end of revolution? The Review of Politics, 61(1), 5–28. doi:10.1017/S0034670500028114.
Sorokin, P. (1967). The sociology of revolution. New York, NY: Howard Fertig.
Stephen, M. D. (2014). Rising powers, global capitalism and liberal global governance: A historical materialist account of the BRICs challenge. European Journal of International Relations, 20(4), 912–938.
Straits Times (2016). Syria - Apocalypse now. The Straits Times. Retrieved from http://www.straitstimes.com/world/syria-apocalypse-now.
The New York Times (2005, March 24). Protesters in Kyrgyzstan Seize Presidential Compound. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/24/international/asia/protesters-in-kyrgyzstan-seize-presidential-compound.html?_r=0.
Thomas, M. (2006). What Do The Worldwide Governance Indicators Measure?. Manuscript: Johns Hopkins University.
Tilly, C. (1994). In search of revolution. Theory and Society, 23(6), 799–803. doi:10.1007/BF00993217.
United Nations Foundation (2011). How to discuss the UN’s role in Libya. The UN Foundation. Retrieved from http://www.unfoundation.org/assets/pdf/una/talking-points-on-libya.pdf.
U.S. Online Training on OSCE (n.d.). Eastern Europe: Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Retrieved from http://react.usip.org/downloads/module4.pdf.
USAID (2005, September). Grassroot revolutions. Democracy Rising. U.S. Agency for International Development. Retrieved from http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/Pdacf571.pdf.
Venger, O. (forthcoming). Geographical proximity is not enough: How culture shaped placement, spatiality, and the outcomes of the Arab Spring’s uprisings. Glocalism: Journal of Culture, Politics, and Innovation.
WBI (n.d.). Good governance and its benefits on economic development: An overview of current trends. World Bank Institute. Retrieved from http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWBIGOVANTCOR/Resources/1740479-1149112210081/2604389-1149699431307/edouardpresentation_munich_inwent.pdf.
Wehrey, F. (2013). The Forgotten Uprising in Eastern Saudi Arabia. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/06/14/forgotten-uprising-in-eastern-saudi-arabia-pub-52093.
Welt, C. (2006, December 28). GEORGIA’S ROSE REVOLUTION: FROM REGIME WEAKNESS TO REGIME COLLAPSE. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved from http://www18.georgetown.edu/data/people/cdw33/publication-32608.pdf.
Worrall, J. (2012). Oman: The “Forgotten” Corner of the Arab Spring. Middle East Policy Council, 19 (3), Retrieved from http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/oman-forgotten-corner-arab-spring.
Yoder, D. (1926). Current definitions of revolution. American Journal of Sociology, 32(3), 433–441. doi:10.1086/214128.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendix
Appendix
See Table 4
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Venger, O., Miethe, T.D. Volatile Places, Volatile Times: Predicting Revolutionary Situations with Nations’ Governance and Fragility Indicators. Soc Indic Res 138, 373–402 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1651-z
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1651-z
Keywords
- World governance indicators
- Fragile states index
- Case comparative analysis
- Revolutionary situations
- Temporal and spatial variability