Abstract
In the comparative turnout literature, there are two ways of measuring voter turnout: (1) voter turnout as the percentage of registered voters that actually turn out (RV turnout) and (2) voter turnout as the percentage of a country’s voting age population that cast their ballot on Election Day (VAP turnout). Both measurements are imprecise, the former overestimates turnout, the latter either underestimates or overestimates turnout. In this article, I introduce a more accurate calculation of macro-level electoral participation into the comparative turnout literature, the percentage of eligible voters or VEP turnout. To do so, I first calculate VEP turnout and add it to a dataset on electoral turnout that covers more than 500 elections conducted in democracies from 1990 to 2012. Second, I use a standard turnout model and highlight that the constituents of turnout somewhat differ across RV turnout, VAP turnout, and VEP turnout.
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Notes
For example, some Eastern European countries such as Macedonia have lost 10 % of their population due to migration in recent decades, while other such as the UK have gained millions of new residents over the same time period.
For example, except for Great Britain, prisoners are allowed to vote in all European Union countries (The Guardian 2013).
In the US, the country with the most prison inmates worldwide, more than 1.5 million individuals are serving a prison sentence. However, relatively these 1.5 million prison inmates make up .7 % of the adult population; biasing VEP turnout by less than 1 point, overall. The percentage of individuals, who are officially labelled mentally ill or unfit to vote, is also tiny. Hence, and despite this lack of data, I can approximate VEP turnout rather accurately.
While polling data at a distinct time before the election would have probably been the best measure of electoral closeness, there are two arguments against the use of such polling data: first and more theoretical, election polls frequently differ in their predications of the actual election results by several percentage points, rendering polling data somewhat inefficient (Whiteley et al. 2011). Second and more practical, it would have just been impossible to get comparable polling data for the more than 500 elections that form the basis of this study.
As an additional institutional factors, I would have liked to include a dummy variable measuring whether registration is automatic or not in a country. The discussion on the differences in turnout between RV turnout, VAP turnout and VEP turnout in this paper (see pages 6–8) strongly entertains the possibility that variation between the three measures stems in part from whether voter registration is automatic or voluntary. Unfortunately, there is no global indicator available that gauges registration requirements. None of the available election datasets (e.g. Adam Carr’s election archive, the IPU dataset, the Democratic Electoral Systems around the World dataset and the Varieties of Democracies dataset) includes such as measure.
There is wide variation in the three operationalizations of turnout. Similar wide variation exists for the independent variables, as well (for some descriptive statistics for all variables please see Table 1).
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Illustrative Example of How I Calculated VEP Turnout
As an illustrative example of the calculationi of VEP turnout, I use Portugal’s 2011 parliamentary election.
I have the following data available:
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1.
The number of voters: 5,585,054
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2.
The voting age population: 9,811074
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3.
The total population of Portugal: 11,858,764
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4.
Foreigners living in Portugal: 854,186
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5.
Portuguese citizens living abroad: 1,869,415
Based on this data, I first calculate the percentage the voting age population makes of the total population, which is (9,811,074/11,858,764 = .827). Second, I calculate the percentage of foreigners at voting age (which is 854,186 × .827 = 706,691) and the number of Portuguese expats: 1,869,415 × .827 = 1,546,006)
I now plug the numbers in the formula:
VEP turnout = 5,585,054/(9,811,074 − 706,691 + 1,546,006) = 52.44 %
Appendix 2: List of Countries and Years Included
Albania (2001–2009) | Liechtenstein (1997–2009) |
Andorra (1993–2011) | Lithuania (1992–2012) |
Antigua (1994–2009) | Luxembourg (1994–2009) |
Argentina (1993–2011) | Madagascar (1993–2002) |
Australia (1990–2010) | Malawi (1994–2009) |
Austria (1990–2008) | Mali (1992–2007) |
Bahamas (1992–2012) | Malta (1992–2008) |
Bangladesh (1991–2006) | Mauritania (2001) |
Barbados (1991–2008) | Mauritius (1991–2010) |
Belgium (1991–2010) | Mexico (1991–2012) |
Belize (1993–2012) | Micronesia (2007) |
Benin (1991–2007) | Moldova (1998–2010) |
Bolivia (1993–2009) | Monaco (1993–2008) |
Botswana (1994–2009) | Mongolia (2004–2012) |
Brazil (1990–2010) | Montenegro (2006–2012) |
Bulgaria (1991–2009) | Namibia (1994–2009) |
Burundi (2005; 2010) | Nauru (1995–2010) |
Canada (1993–2011) | The Netherlands (1994–2010) |
Cape Verdi (1991–2011) | New Zealand (1990–2011) |
Chile (1993–2009) | Nicaragua (1990–2011) |
Colombia (1991–2009) | Niger (1993; 1994; 2004; 2011) |
Costa Rica (1990–2010) | Norway (1993–2009) |
Croatia (2000–2011) | Pakistan (1990–1997) |
Cyprus (1991–2011) | Palau (1996–2012) |
Czech Republic (1990–2010) | Panama (1994–2009) |
Denmark (1990–2011) | Paraguay (1993–2008) |
Dominica (2000–2009) | Peru (2001–2011) |
Dominican Republic (1990; 2002–2010) | Philippines (1992–2010) |
East Timor (2001; 2007) | Poland (1991–2011) |
Ecuador (1990–2010) | Portugal (1991–2011) |
El Salvador (1991–2009) | Romania (1996–2012) |
Estonia (1992–2011) | Saint Kitts (1993–2010) |
Finland (1991–2011) | Saint Vincent (1994–2010) |
France (1993–2012) | Samoa (1991–2001) |
Gabon (2011) | San Marino (1993–2012) |
Gambia (1992) | San Tome (1991–2010) |
Germany (1990–2009) | Senegal (1993–2007) |
Ghana (2004–2012) | Serbia (2003–2012) |
Greece (1990–2012) | Sierra Leone (2007; 2012) |
Grenada (1990–2008) | Slovakia (1994–2012) |
Guatemala (1999–2011) | Slovenia (1992–2011) |
Guinea Bissau (2008) | Solomon Islands (1993; 1997; 2006; 2010) |
Guyana (1992–2011) | South Africa (1994–2009) |
Haiti (1990; 1995) | South Korea (1992–2012) |
Honduras (1997–2009) | Spain (1993–2011) |
Hungary (1990–2010) | Sri Lanka (2001) |
Iceland (1991–2009) | Sweden (1991–2010) |
India (1991–2009) | Switzerland (1991–2011) |
Indonesia (1999–2009) | Thailand (1992–1996) |
Ireland (1992–2011) | Tonga (1990–2008) |
Israel (1992–2012) | Trinidad (1991–2010) |
Italy (1992–2008) | Turkey (1991–2011) |
Kenya (2002; 2007) | Tuvalu (2002) |
Kiribati (2007) | Ukraine (1994–2012) |
Kosovo (2001–2010) | UK (1992–2010) |
Latvia (1993–2011) | United States (1990–2012) |
Lebanon (1992; 2005; 2009) | Uruguay (1994–2009) |
Lesotho (1993; 2002–2012) | Venzuela (1998: 2010) |
Appendix 3
See Fig. 1.
Development of electoral particiption (RV, VAP and VEP turnout)
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Stockemer, D. Electoral Participation: How to Measure Voter Turnout?. Soc Indic Res 133, 943–962 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1410-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1410-6