Social Indicators Research

, Volume 86, Issue 2, pp 303–321 | Cite as

Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

  • Joan Costa-FontEmail author
  • Raphael Wittenberg
  • Concepció Patxot
  • Adelina Comas-Herrera
  • Cristiano Gori
  • Alessandra di Maio
  • Linda Pickard
  • Alessandro Pozzi
  • Heinz Rothgang


This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.


Population projections Long-term care Life Expectancy and mortality 



We acknowledge the comments from the participants to our Barcelona and London Seminars in 2001–2002. This study was partly funded by the European Commission Employment and Social Affairs DG. Grant number VS/2001/0272. Referee's comments are acknowledged.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Joan Costa-Font
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Raphael Wittenberg
    • 3
  • Concepció Patxot
    • 1
  • Adelina Comas-Herrera
    • 3
  • Cristiano Gori
    • 4
  • Alessandra di Maio
    • 4
  • Linda Pickard
    • 3
  • Alessandro Pozzi
    • 4
  • Heinz Rothgang
    • 5
  1. 1.Research Centre on the Economics of Social Policy (CAEPS)Universitat the BarcelonaBarcelonaSpain
  2. 2.LSE Health and Social CareLondon School of EconomicsLondonUK
  3. 3.PSSRU, LSE Health and Social CareLondon School of EconomicsLondonUK
  4. 4.Istituto per la Ricerca SocialeBolognaItaly
  5. 5.Centre for Social Policy ResearchBremen University BremenGermany

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