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Regionally adjusted ground motion model: Case study of the ML6.2 (Mw6.4) Petrinja (Croatia) 2020 earthquake

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In the wake of recent 2020 ML ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in Croatia, Zagreb ML5.5 and Petrinja ML6.2, the insufficient instrumental network as well as the lack of regional ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) were identified as the drawbacks of our engineering community. The former is related to the quality definition of active seismicity (most of the instruments are installed in the southern part of Croatia with fewer installed around Zagreb in the northwestern part of Croatia), and the latter is related to the proper number of strong motion recordings. In Croatia, there is a sparse database of ground motion recordings for moderate earthquakes which makes a well-designed ground motion selecting procedure hardly achievable. Following this, strong motion BSHAP database for empirical estimation of the response spectrum based on Fourier amplitude spectrum and the ground motion duration using Random Vibration Theory approach adjusted to source, propagation, and local site conditions was used. Regionally adjusted ground motion model estimations for the ML6.2 Petrinja 2020 earthquake scenario are comparable with the previously published GMPEs models for this part of Europe and for the Western part of North America. However, model-to-model variability and uncertainties in local GMPE exceeded those of global GMPEs and are influenced by statistically less stable and more limited datasets. Model is applicable for magnitudes up to Mw6.5 and Joyner-Boore distances up to 200 km with usable frequency range between 0.4 and 33 Hz. The presented model is a step forward toward performing hybrid-empirical seismic hazard studies in areas with sparse ground motions such as the region of Croatia.

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The authors would like to thank to Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gülerce (Middle East Technical University, Turkey) and to Prof. Dr. Zoran Milutinovic and Prof. Dr. Radmila Salic (Institute of Earthquake Engineering & Engineering Seismology, Republic of North Macedonia) for their help with this study through last few years of collaboration, analyses and discussion. This work has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation (project “Seismic Risk Assessment of Cultural Heritage Buildings in Croatia”, HRZZ IP-2020-02-3531) and from the Norwegian Financial Mechanism 2014–2021 (project “Investigation of Seismically Vulnerable Areas in Croatia and Seismic Ground Motion Assessment”, 04-UBS-U-0002/22-90). The authors would like to thank the anonymous Reviewer and to Dr. Sreeram Reddy Kotha, ISTerre, Grenoble, France for help and constructive review that significantly improved the final version of the presented study. Also we would like to thank Associate Editor Donner, Stefanie for their comments and suggestions during the review stage.

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Correspondence to Davor Stanko.

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The BSHAP earthquake catalogue and strong motion database were compiled in the scope of the “Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries Project” (NATO SfP Award Number 984374), funded under NATO SfP Program. Due to certain project regulations and restrictions for the availability of these products (just for scientific purposes), please contact directly the members of BSHAP Project Team.

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Uglešić, J.S., Skendrović, F., Lončar, I. et al. Regionally adjusted ground motion model: Case study of the ML6.2 (Mw6.4) Petrinja (Croatia) 2020 earthquake. Stud Geophys Geod 66, 162–186 (2022).

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