Abstract
A forecasting scheme of geomagnetic activity is presented, based on the analysis of the geoeffectiveness of X-ray flares, accompanied by Type II and/or Type IV radio bursts (RSP) observed on the solar disc in the years 1996–2004. The neural network was used to construct this scheme enabling us to determine the probability, with which flares will be followed by a geomagnetic response of a particular intensity. The successfulness of forecasts produced after the fact depended on the flare class and on the combination of radio-burst types. In the case of RSP IV, 58% of the geomagnetic responses of X-ray flares of at least B class were successful. If only RSP II was observed, the forecast was successful only for flares of the X class (67% of successful forecasts). In the second step, a strong geomagnetic response was correctly forecast after geoeffective flares in 58% of the cases. The results are in a good agreement with recent papers based on physical modelling.
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fridrich@geomag.sk
ph@ig.cas.cz, jboch@ig.cas.cz
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Valach, F., Hejda, P. & Bochníček, J. Geoeffectiveness of XRA events associated with RSP II and/or RSP IV estimated using the artificial neural network. Stud Geophys Geod 51, 551–562 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-007-0032-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11200-007-0032-5