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A discussion of measuring the top-1% most-highly cited publications: quality and impact of Chinese papers

Abstract

The top-1% most-highly-cited articles are watched closely as the vanguards of the sciences. Using Web of Science data, one can find that China had overtaken the USA in the relative participation in the top-1% (PP-top1%) in 2019, after outcompeting the EU on this indicator in 2015. However, this finding contrasts with repeated reports of Western agencies that the quality of China’s output in science is lagging other advanced nations, even as it has caught up in numbers of articles. The difference between the results presented here and the previous results depends mainly upon field normalizations, which classify source journals by discipline. Average citation rates of these subsets are commonly used as a baseline so that one can compare among disciplines. However, the expected value of the top-1% of a sample of N papers is N / 100, ceteris paribus. Using the average citation rates as expected values, errors are introduced by (1) using the mean of highly skewed distributions and (2) a specious precision in the delineations of the subsets. Classifications can be used for the decomposition, but not for the normalization. When the data is thus decomposed, the USA ranks ahead of China in biomedical fields such as virology. Although the number of papers is smaller, China outperforms the US in the field of Business and Finance (in the Social Sciences Citation Index; p < .05). Using percentile ranks, subsets other than indexing-based classifications can be tested for the statistical significance of differences among them.

Graphical Abstract

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Notes

  1. The National Science Board of the United States establishes the policies of the National Science Foundation and serves as advisor to Congress and the President. NSB’s biennial report—Science and Engineering Indicators (SEI)—provides comprehensive information on the nation’s S&E.

  2. The “Flagship Collection” of WoS includes the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCIE), the Social Sciences Citation Index, (SSCI), and the Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI), and the Emerging Sources Citation Index.

  3. Interestingly, since 2017, the differences between the EU with or without the UK are not statistically significant (z ≤ 1.96; p > .05).

  4. The Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) in Philadelphia (PA) was the owner and producer of the Science Citation Indexes at the time.

  5. One can formalize I3 as follows:

    $$I3 = \sum\nolimits_{i = 1}^{C} {f(X) \times X_{i} } \quad (1)$$

    where Xi indicates the percentile ranks and f(Xi) denotes the frequencies of the ranks with i = [1,C] as the percentile rank classes.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Koen Jonkers, Xabier Goenaga, Ronald Rousseau and two anonymous referees for advice, critiques, and suggestions. Loet Leydesdorff is grateful to ISI/Clarivate for JCR data.

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Correspondence to Caroline S. Wagner.

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Wagner, C.S., Zhang, L. & Leydesdorff, L. A discussion of measuring the top-1% most-highly cited publications: quality and impact of Chinese papers. Scientometrics 127, 1825–1839 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04291-z

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Keywords

  • Citation analysis
  • National standing
  • International cooperation
  • Science
  • Technology
  • United States
  • China