, Volume 109, Issue 3, pp 2053–2065

Refrain from adopting the combination of citation and journal metrics to grade publications, as used in the Italian national research assessment exercise (VQR 2011–2014)


DOI: 10.1007/s11192-016-2153-5

Cite this article as:
Abramo, G. & D’Angelo, C.A. Scientometrics (2016) 109: 2053. doi:10.1007/s11192-016-2153-5


The prediction of the long-term impact of a scientific article is challenging task, addressed by the bibliometrician through resorting to a proxy whose reliability increases with the breadth of the citation window. In the national research assessment exercises using metrics the citation window is necessarily short, but in some cases is sufficient to advise the use of simple citations. For the Italian VQR 2011–2014, the choice was instead made to adopt a linear weighted combination of citations and journal metric percentiles, with weights differentiated by discipline and year. Given the strategic importance of the exercise, whose results inform the allocation of a significant share of resources for the national academic system, we examined whether the predictive power of the proposed indicator is stronger than the simple citation count. The results show the opposite, for all discipline in the sciences and a citation window above 2 years.


Research evaluation Bibliometrics Impact factor ANVUR 

Copyright information

© Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Laboratory for Studies of Research Evaluation, Institute for System Analysis and Computer Science (IASI-CNR)National Research Council of ItalyRomeItaly
  2. 2.Department of Engineering and ManagementUniversity of Rome “Tor Vergata”RomeItaly

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