, Volume 69, Issue 3, pp 689–696 | Cite as

The Current Impact Factor and the long-term impact of scientific journals by discipline: A logistic diffusion model estimation

  • Claudia Contreras
  • Gonzalo Edwards
  • Alejandra Mizala


This paper estimates the long-term impact of journals aggregated in 24 different fields, using a simple logistic diffusion model, and relates the results to the current impact factor. Results show that while the current and the long-term impact factors have a high correlation coefficient, some fields are systematically slower-moving than others, as they often differ in the proportion of the overall impact through time that occurs in the short term.


Impact Factor Journal Citation Report Cumulative Impact Data Period Diffusion Structure 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag/Akadémiai Kiadó 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Claudia Contreras
    • 1
  • Gonzalo Edwards
    • 2
  • Alejandra Mizala
    • 3
  1. 1.Chilean Observatory of Science, Technology and Innovation (KAWAX), Bicentennial Program of Science and Technology (PBCT), National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research in Chile (CONICYT)
  2. 2.Institute of Economics of the Catholic University of Chile
  3. 3.Economics at the Center for Applied Economics, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Chile

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