Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

, Volume 30, Issue 3, pp 195–209 | Cite as

The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos

  • Rachel CrosonEmail author
  • James Sundali


Research on decision making under uncertainty demonstrates that intuitive ideas of randomness depart systematically from the laws of chance. Two such departures involving random sequences of events have been documented in the laboratory, the gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand. This study presents results from the field, using videotapes of patrons gambling in a casino, to examine the existence and extent of these biases in naturalistic settings. We find small but significant biases in our population, consistent with those observed in the lab.


perceptions of randomness uncertainty field study 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.The Wharton SchoolUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaUSA
  2. 2.Managerial Sciences/028University of NevadaReno, Reno

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