Abstract
This study aims to understand the role of financial aid in college success of two-year beginning nontraditional students. By applying discrete time event history models with propensity score covariate adjustment to a nationally representative sample from BPS: 04/09, this study answers research questions centering around the effects of Pell Grants, subsidized student loans and unsubsidized student loans on six-year college outcomes of nontraditional students (i.e. degree attainment, system departure, and continuous enrollment without a degree). The results of this study suggest that these nontraditional students were most likely to drop out in the third college year and that all three types of financial aid appeared effective for reducing dropout risks, but not for encouraging timely degree completion. These findings have significant implications for policy and practice including the necessity for considering the complexity of nontraditional student pathways, backgrounds and unique needs when designing and implementing financial aid policy. The findings also contribute to discussions on ways to fund nontraditional students and provide recommendations for institutions serving large populations of nontraditional students to promote persistence to graduation.
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Notes
According to the full-scale methodology report of BPS: 04/09 (Wine et al. 2011), the analysis weight significantly reduces bias across most variables except for two categories of institution undergraduate enrollment (i.e. 0–1821 and 1822–6690) for students at private for-profit two-year and above institutions.
While independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is considered the defining property of multinomial logit, tests of IIA (e.g. McFadden et al. 1981; Small and Hsiao 1985; Hausman and McFadden 1984) are proved to provide inconsistent results (Cheng and Long 2007), Long and Freese (2006) suggest that the multinomial logit model should only be used when the outcomes are perceived as distinctive by decision makers.
According to the full scale methodological report by Wine et al. (2011), WTB000 is the longitudinal study weight for analysis of the beginning students who had sufficient data to be included in all 3 years of BPS surveys. And the authors’ correspondence with NCES also confirms the appropriate use of WTB000 weights.
However, the odds ratio associated with each type of financial aid does not directly express the overall effects of respective types of financial aid, rather it represents the effects of the financial aid for the group of students with interaction terms between the financial aid and other variables equal zero.
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Acknowledgments
This study is based upon work supported by the Association for Institutional Research, the National Center for Education Statistics and the National Science Foundation under the Association for Institutional Research Grant No. G12-53. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Association for Institutional Research, the National Center for Education Statistics or the National Sciences Foundation. The authors also wish to express gratitude to Dr. Steve DesJardins from University of Michigan, and two anonymous reviewers for their comments on the preliminary versions.
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Estimates of Full EHA Model with PS Adjustment
Appendix 2: Propensity Score Model Estimates
Appendix 3: Stata Scripts
Appendix 4: Outcomes of Certificate Completers
Outcome | Weighted counts | % |
---|---|---|
Degree completion | 56,687 | 17.95 |
Dropout | 188,372 | 59.65 |
Still enrolled | 70,728 | 22.40 |
Total | 315,787 | 100 |
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Chen, J., Hossler, D. The Effects of Financial Aid on College Success of Two-Year Beginning Nontraditional Students. Res High Educ 58, 40–76 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-016-9416-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-016-9416-0