Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge

Abstract

The marine life of Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems, adjacent to the province of British Columbia, may be relatively responsive to rapid oceanographic and environmental change associated with global climate change due to uniquely evolved plasticities and resiliencies as well as particular sensitivities and vulnerabilities, given this dynamic and highly textured natural setting. These marine ecosystems feature complex interfaces of coastal geomorphology, climate, and oceanography, including a dynamic oceanographic and ecological transition zone formed by the divergence of the North Pacific Current into the Alaskan coastal current and the California Current, and by currents transporting warm tropical waters from the south. Despite long-term warming in the region, sea surface temperatures in Canada’s Pacific have been anomalously cool since 2007 with La Niña-type conditions prevailing as we enter a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, possibly masking future warming. When warmer El Niño conditions prevail, many southern species invade, strongly impacting local species and reorganizing biological communities. Acidification and deoxygenation are anomalously high in the region due to the weakening ventilation of subsurface waters resulting from increased stratification. A broad spectrum of biological responses to these changes are expected. Non-climate anthropogenic stressors affect the capacity of biota to adapt to climate changes. It will be challenging to forecast the responses of particular species, and to map climate vulnerabilities accurately enough to help prioritize and guide adaptation planning. It will be more challenging to develop forecasts that account for indirect effects within biological communities and the intricate and apparently non-deterministic behaviours of highly complex and variable marine ecosystems, such as those of Canada’s Pacific. We recommend and outline national and regional climate assessments in Canada and adaptation planning and implementation including integrated coastal management and marine spatial planning and management.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

References

  1. Abdul-Aziz OI, Mantua NJ, Myers KW (2011) Potential climate change impacts on thermal habitats of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 68(9):1660–1680. doi:10.1139/f2011-079

    Google Scholar 

  2. Abeysirigunawardena DS, Walker IJ (2008) Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in Northern British Columbia. Atmos Ocean 46(3):277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301

    Google Scholar 

  3. Agostini VN, Hendrix AN, Hollowed AB, Wilson CD, Pierce SD, Francis RC (2008) Climate-ocean variability and Pacific hake: a geostatistical modeling approach. J Mar Syst 71(3–4):237–248. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.01.010

    Google Scholar 

  4. Ainsworth CH, Pitcher TJ (2005a) Estimating illegal, unreported and unregulated catch in British Columbia’s marine fisheries. Fish Res 75(1–3):40–55. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2005.05.003

    Google Scholar 

  5. Ainsworth CH, Pitcher TJ (2005b) Evaluating marine ecosystem restoration goals for northern British Columbia. Alsk Sea Grant Rep 05–02:419–466

    Google Scholar 

  6. Ainsworth CH, Pitcher TJ (2005c) Using local ecological knowledge in ecosystem models. Alsk Sea Grant Rep 05–02:289–304

    Google Scholar 

  7. Ainsworth CH, Pitcher TJ (2006) Modifying Kempton’s species diversity index for use with ecosystem simulation models. Ecol Indic 6(3):623–630

    Google Scholar 

  8. Ainsworth C, Heymans JJ, Pitcher TJ, Vasconcellos M (2002) Ecosystem models of northern British Columbia for the time periods 2000, 1950, 1900 and 1750. Univ B C Fish Cent Res Rep 10(4):i–v, 1–41

  9. Ainsworth CH, Pitcher TJ, Heymans JJ, Vasconcellos M (2008) Reconstructing historical marine ecosystems using food web models: Northern British Columbia from pre-European contact to present. Ecol Model 216(3–4):354–368. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.05.005

    Google Scholar 

  10. Ainsworth CH, Samhouri JF, Busch DS, Cheung WWL, Dunne J, Okey TA (2011) Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries. ICES J Mar Sci 68(6):1217–1229. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr043

    Google Scholar 

  11. Alheit J, Drinkwater KF, Perry RI (2010) Introduction to the workshop on impact of climate variability on marine ecosystems: a comparative approach Preface. J Mar Syst 79(3–4):227–229. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.02.006

    Google Scholar 

  12. Allison EH, Perry AL, Badjeck M-C, Adger WN, Brown K, Conway D, Halls AS, Pilling GM, Reynolds JD, Andrew NL, Dulvy NK (2009) Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries. Fish Fish 10(2):173–196

    Google Scholar 

  13. Anderson PJ, Piatt JF (1999) Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 189:117–123

    Google Scholar 

  14. Archambault P, Snelgrove PVR, Fisher JAD, Gagnon JM, Garbary DJ, Harvey M, Kenchington EL, Lesage V, Levesque M, Lovejoy C, Mackas DL, McKindsey CW, Nelson JR, Pepin P, Piche L, Poulin M (2010) From sea to sea: Canada’s three oceans of biodiversity. PLoS One 5(8). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012182

  15. Atkinson A, Siegel V, Pakhomov E, Rothery P (2004) Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature 432(7013):100–103. doi:10.1038/nature02950

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. Ban NC, Alidina HM, Ardron JA (2010) Cumulative impact mapping: advances, relevance and limitations to marine management and conservation, using Canada’s Pacific waters as a case study. Mar Policy 34(5):876–886. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2010.01.010

    Google Scholar 

  17. Barrie JV, Conway KW (2002) Rapid sea-level change and coastal evolution on the Pacific margin of Canada. Sediment Geol 150(1–2):171–183. doi:10.1016/s0037-0738(01)00274-3

    Google Scholar 

  18. Batten SD, Mackas DL (2009) Shortened duration of the annual Neocalanus plumchrus biomass peak in the Northeast Pacific. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 393:189–198. doi:10.3354/meps08044

    Google Scholar 

  19. Batten S, Chen X, Flint EN, Freeland HJ, Holmes J, Howell E, Ichii T, Kaeriyama M, Landry M, Lunsford C, Mackas DL, Mate B, Matsuda K, McKinnell SM, Miller L, Morgan K, Peña A, Polovina JJ, Robert M, Seki MP, Sydeman WJ, Thompson SA, Whitney FA, Woodworth P, Yamaguchi A (2010) Status and trends of the North Pacific oceanic region, 2003–2008. In: McKinnell SM, Dagg MJ (eds) Marine ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean, 2003–2008. PICES Spec Publ 4:56–105

  20. Battin J, Wiley MW, Ruckelshaus MH, Palmer RN, Korb E, Bartz KK, Imaki H (2007) Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(16):6720–6725

    CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. BC (2002) British Columbia marine ecological classification: marine ecosections and ecounits version 2.0. Prepared by the ministry of sustainable resource management decision support services branch for the coastal task force resources information standards committee, Province of British Columbia

  22. BCME (2007) Environmental trends in British Columbia: 2007. State of environment reporting. B.C. Ministry of Environment, Victoria, BC. www.env.gov.bc.ca/soe/et07/

  23. BCMWALP (2002) Indicators of climate change for British Columbia, 2002. Water, air and climate change branch, BC ministry of water, land and air protection, Victoria, BC

  24. Beacham TD, Hay DE, Le KD (2005) Population structure and stock identification of eulachon (Thaleichthys pacificus), an anadromous smelt, in the Pacific Northwest. Mar Biotechnol 7(4):363–372. doi:10.1007/s10126-004-4075-0

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  25. Beamish RJ (ed) (1995) Climate change and northern fish populations. Canadian special publication of fisheries and aquatic sciences, vol 121. National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa

  26. Beamish RJ, Bouillon DR (1993) Pacific Salmon production trends in relation to climate. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 50(5):1002–1016

    Google Scholar 

  27. Beamish RJ, Neville CEM, Cass AJ (1997) Production of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to decadal-scale changes in the climate and the ocean. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 54(3):543–554

    Google Scholar 

  28. Beamish RJ, McFarlane GA, Thomson RE (1999a) Recent declines in the recreational catch of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Strait of Georgia are related to climate. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56(3):506–515

    Google Scholar 

  29. Beamish RJ, Noakes DJ, McFarlane GA, Klyashtorin L, Ivanov VV, Kurashov V (1999b) The regime concept and natural trends in the production of Pacific salmon. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56(3):516–526

    Google Scholar 

  30. Beamish RJ, King JR, McFarlane GA (2009) Canada. In: Beamish RJ (ed) Impacts of climate and climate change on the key species in the fisheries in the North Pacific. PICES scientific report no. 35. PICES working group on climate change, shifts in fish populations, and fisheries management. North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), Secretariat, Sidney BC, pp 14–55

  31. Benson AJ, McFarlane GA, Allen SE, Dower JF (2002) Changes in Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) migration patterns and juvenile growth related to the 1989 regime shift. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 59(12):1969–1979. doi:10.1139/f02-156

    Google Scholar 

  32. Bertram D (2001) Seabirds reflect changes in ocean climate. In: Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC workshop on impact of climate variability on observation and prediction of ecosystem and biodiversity changes in the North Pacific, report 18. North Pacific Marine Science Organization

  33. Bertram DF, Mackas DL, McKinnell SM (2001) The seasonal cycle revisited: interannual variation and ecosystem consequences. Prog Oceanogr 49(1–4):283–307. doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(01)00027-1

    Google Scholar 

  34. Bertram DF, Harfenist A, Smith BD (2005) Ocean climate and El Nino impacts on survival of Cassin’s Auklets from upwelling and downwelling domains of British Columbia. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 62(12):2841–2853. doi:10.1139/f05-190

    Google Scholar 

  35. Bluhm BA, Gradinger R (2008) Regional variability in food availability for arctic marine mammals. Ecol Appl 18(2):S77–S96. doi:10.1890/06-0562.1

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  36. Bograd SJ, Sydeman WJ, Barlow J, Booth A, Brodeur RD, Calambokidis J, Chavez F, Crawford WR, Di Lorenzo E, Durazo R, Emmett R, Field J, Gaxiola-Castro G, Gilly W, Goericke R, Hildebrand J, Irvine JE, Kahru M, Koslow JA, Lavaniegos B, Lowry M, Mackas DL, Manzano-Sarabia M, McKinnell SM, Mitchell BG, Munger L, Perry RI, Peterson WT, Ralston S, Schweigert J, Suntsov A, Tanasichuk R, Thomas AC, Whitney F (2010) Status and trends of the California Current region, 2003–2008. In: McKinnell SM, Dagg MJ (eds) Marine ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean, 2003–2008. PICES Spec Publ 4:106–141

    Google Scholar 

  37. Boldt J, Cleary J, Schweigert J, Daniel K, Fort C, Tanasichuk R, Thompson M (2013) Herring. In: Irvine J, Crawford W (eds) State of physical, biological, and selected fishery resources of Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems in 2012. DFO Can Sci. Advis Secr Res Doc 2013/032. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat, Department of Fisheries Oceans, Ottawa, ON, Canada, pp 69–74

  38. Booth DT, Astill K (2001) Incubation temperature, energy expenditure and hatchling size in the green turtle (Chelonia mydas), a species with temperature-sensitive sex determination. Aust J Zool 49(4):389–396. doi:10.1071/zo01006

    Google Scholar 

  39. Borstad G, Crawford W, Hipfner JM, Thomson R, Hyatt K (2011) Environmental control of the breeding success of rhinoceros auklets at Triangle Island, British Columbia. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 424:285–302. doi:10.3354/meps08950

    Google Scholar 

  40. Brander K (2010) Impacts of climate change on fisheries. J Mar Syst 79(3–4):389–402. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.015

    Google Scholar 

  41. Brodeur RD, Ware DM (1992) Long-term variability in zooplankton biomass in the subarctic Pacific Ocean. Fish Oceanogr 1(1):32–39

    Google Scholar 

  42. Brodeur RD, Pearcy WG, Ralston S (2003) Abundance and distribution patterns of nekton and micro nekton in the Northern California Current transition zone. J Oceanogr 59(4):515–535. doi:10.1023/a:1025548801541

    Google Scholar 

  43. Brodeur RD, Fisher JP, Emmett RL, Morgan CA, Casillas E (2005) Species composition and community structure of pelagic nekton off Oregon and Washington under variable oceanographic conditions. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 298:41–57. doi:10.3354/meps298041

    Google Scholar 

  44. Brodeur RD, Ralston S, Emmett RL, Trudel M, Auth TD, Phillips AJ (2006) Anomalous pelagic nekton abundance, distribution, apparent recruitment in the northern California Current in 2004 and 2005. Geophys Res Lett 33:L22S08

    Google Scholar 

  45. Byrne RH, Mecking S, Feely RA, Liu X (2010) Direct observations of basin-wide acidification of the North Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 37(2):L02601

    Google Scholar 

  46. Byrnes JE, Reed DC, Cardinale BJ, Cavanaugh KC, Holbrook SJ, Schmitt RJ (2011) Climate-driven increases in storm frequency simplify kelp forest food webs. Glob Change Biol 17(8):2513–2524. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02409.x

    Google Scholar 

  47. Caldeira K, Wickett ME (2003) Oceanography: anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425(6956):365

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  48. Caldeira K, Wickett ME (2005) Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean. J Geophys Res Oceans 110(C9). doi:10.1029/2004jc002671

  49. Cederholm CJ, Kunze MD, Murota T, Sibatani A (1999) Pacific salmon carcasses: essential contributions of nutrients and energy for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Fisheries 24(10):6–15

    Google Scholar 

  50. Chan F, Barth JA, Lubchenco J, Kirincich A, Weeks H, Peterson WT, Menge BA (2008) Emergence of anoxia in the California current large marine ecosystem. Science 319(5865):920. doi:10.1126/science.1149016

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  51. Chavez FP, Ryan J, Lluch-Cota SE, Niquen M (2003) From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299(5604):217–221

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  52. Cherniawsky JY, Foreman MGG, Crawford WR, Beckley BD (2004) Altimeter observations of sea-level variability off the west coast of North America. Int J Remote Sens 25(7–8):1303–1306. doi:10.1080/01431160310001592210

    Google Scholar 

  53. Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Sarmiento JL, Kearney K, Watson R, Pauly D (2009) Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fish 10(3):235–251. doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

    Google Scholar 

  54. Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Sarmiento JL, Kearney K, Watson R, Zeller D, Pauly D (2010) Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Glob Change Biol 16(1):24–35. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x

    Google Scholar 

  55. Cheung WWL, Dunne J, Sarmiento JL, Pauly D (2011) Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES J Mar Sci 68(6):1008–1018. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr012

    Google Scholar 

  56. Cheung WL, Okey TA, Brodeur RD, Pauly D (in press) Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas

  57. Ciannelli L, Bailey KM, Chan KS, Belgrano A, Stenseth NC (2005) Climate change causing phase transitions of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment dynamics. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 272(1573):1735–1743

    Google Scholar 

  58. Cinner JE, Daw T, McClanahan TR (2009) Socioeconomic factors that affect artisanal fishers’ readiness to exit a declining fishery. Conserv Biol 23(1):124–130. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01041.x

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  59. Cisneros-Montemayor AM (2010) Ecosystem modelling and Ecopath with Ecosim. Trinational Sardine Forum, Victoria, Canada, 16–18 November 2010

  60. Clark WG, Hare SR (2002) Effects of climate and stock size on recruitment and growth of Pacific halibut. N Am J Fish Manag 22(3):852–862. doi:10.1577/1548-8675(2002)022<0852:eocass>2.0.co;2

    Google Scholar 

  61. Clark FN, Marr JC (1955) Part II: population dynamics of the Pacific sardine. Calif Coop Oceanic Fish Invest Prog Rep 4:11–48

    Google Scholar 

  62. Coelho F, Santos AL, Coimbra J, Almeida A, Cunha A, Cleary DFR, Calado R, Gomes NCM (2013) Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead. Ecol Evol 3(6):1808–1818. doi:10.1002/ece3.565

    PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  63. Connell JH, Sousa WP (1983) On the evidence needed to judge ecological stability or persistence. Am Nat 121(6):789–824

    Google Scholar 

  64. Conway K, Johannessen DI (2007) Appendix A: geology. In: Lucas BG, Verrin S, Brown R (eds) Ecosystem overview: Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA). Can Tech Rep Fish Aquat Sci 2667

  65. Cosgrove JA (2005) The first specimens of Humboldt squid in British Columbia. PICES Press 13:30–31

  66. Crawford B, McKinnell S (2013) Continuing cool in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. PICES Press 21(1):32–33

    Google Scholar 

  67. Crawford WR, Pena MA (2013) Declining oxygen on the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Atmos Ocean 51(1):88–103. doi:10.1080/07055900.2012.753028

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  68. Criddle KR, Herrmann M, Greenberg JA, Feller EM (1998) Climate fluctuation and revenue maximization in the eastern Bering Sea fishery for walleye pollock. North Am J Fish Manag 18(1):1–10

    Google Scholar 

  69. Crocker DE, Costa DP, Le Boeuf BJ, Webb PM, Houser DS (2006) Impact of El Nino on the foraging behavior of female northern elephant seals. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 309:1–10. doi:10.3354/meps309001

    Google Scholar 

  70. Crozier LG, Zabel RW, Hamlett AF (2008) Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Glob Change Biol 14(2):236–249

    Google Scholar 

  71. Cummins P, Haigh R (2010) Ecosystem status and trends report for north coast and Hecate Strait ecozone, British Columbia. DFO Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2010/045, iv + 61 p

  72. Dallimore A, Jmieff DG (2010) Canadian west coast fjords and inlets of the NE Pacific Ocean as depositional archives. In: Howe JA, Austin WEN, Forwick M, Paetzel M (eds) Fjord systems and archives. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 344:145–164

  73. Dallimore A, Thomson RE, Bertram MA (2005) Modem to late Holocene deposition in an anoxic fjord on the west coast of Canada: implications for regional oceanography, climate and paleoseismic history. Mar Geol 219(1):47–69. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2005.05.003

    Google Scholar 

  74. Darling ES, McClanahan TR, Cote IM (2013) Life histories predict coral community disassembly under multiple stressors. Glob Change Biol 19(6):1930–1940. doi:10.1111/gcb.12191

    Google Scholar 

  75. DFO (2006a) Pacific region integrated fisheries management plan: opal squid—January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2006. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 29 p. http://www-ops2.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/xnet/content/MPLANS/MPlans.htm

  76. DFO (2006b) State of the Pacific Ocean 2005. DFO Sci Ocean Status Rep 2006/001

  77. DFO (2008a) Recovery strategy for the northern and southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Canada. Species at risk act recovery strategy series. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ottawa

  78. DFO (2008b) State of the Pacific Ocean 2007. DFO Can Sci Advis Rep 2008/028

  79. DFO (2009) Development of a framework and principles for the biogeographic classification of Canadian marine areas. DFO Can Sci Adv Secr Sci Adv Rep 2009/056

  80. DFO (2010) 2010 Canadian marine ecosystem status and trends report. DFO Can Sci Advis Sec Sci Advis Rep 2010/030 (revised)

  81. DFO (2013) State of the Pacific Ocean 2012. DFO Can Sci Advis Sec Sci Advis Rep 2013/028

  82. Doak DF, Estes JA, Halpern BS, Jacob U, Lindberg DR, Lovvorn J, Monson DH, Tinker MT, Williams TM, Wootton JT, Carroll I, Emmerson M, Micheli F, Novak M (2008) Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable? Ecology 89(4):952–961

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  83. Doney SC, Fabry VJ, Feely RA, Kleypas JA (2009) Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem. Ann Rev Mar Sci 1:169–192

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  84. Doney SC, Ruckelshaus M, Duffy JE, Barry JP, Chan F, English CA, Galindo HM, Grebmeier JM, Hollowed AB, Knowlton N, Polovina J, Rabalais NN, Sydeman WJ, Talley LD (2012) Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. In: Carlson CA, Giovannoni SJ (eds) Annu Rev Mar Sci 4:11–37. doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611

  85. Duffy JE, Stachowicz JJ (2006) Why biodiversity is important to oceanography: potential roles of genetic, species, and trophic diversity in pelagic ecosystem processes. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 311:179–189

    Google Scholar 

  86. Dybas CL (2005) Dead zones spreading in world oceans. Bioscience 55(7):552–557

    Google Scholar 

  87. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289(5487):2068–2074

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  88. Ehlers A, Worm B, Reusch TBH (2008) Importance of genetic diversity in eelgrass Zostera marina for its resilience to global warming. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 355:1–7. doi:10.3354/meps07369

    Google Scholar 

  89. Epelbaum A, Herborg LM, Therriault TW, Pearce CM (2009) Temperature and salinity effects on growth, survival, reproduction, and potential distribution of two non-indigenous botryllid ascidians in British Columbia. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 369(1):43–52. doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2008.10.028

    Google Scholar 

  90. Espinosa-Romero MJ, Gregr EJ, Walters C, Christensen V, Chan KMA (2011) Representing mediating effects and species reintroductions in Ecopath with Ecosim. Ecol Model 222(9):1569–1579. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.008

    Google Scholar 

  91. Feely RA, Sabine CL, Lee K, Berelson W, Kleypas J, Fabry VJ, Millero FJ (2004) Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans. Science 305(5682):362–366

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  92. Feely RA, Sabine CL, Hernandez-Ayon JM, Ianson D, Hales B (2008) Evidence for upwelling of corrosive “acidified” water onto the continental shelf. Science 320:1490–1492

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  93. Field JC, Baltz K, Phillips AJ, Walker WA (2007) Range expansion and trophic interactions of the jumbo squid, Dosidicus gigas, in the California Current. Calif Coop Ocean Fish Invest Rep 48:131–146

    Google Scholar 

  94. Flostrand L, Boldt J, Schweigert J, Hodes V (2013) Sardine. In: Irvine J, Crawford W (eds) State of physical, biological, and selected fishery resources of Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems in 2012. DFO Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2013/032. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat, Department of Fisheries Oceans, Ottawa, ON, Canada, pp 75–80

  95. Ford SE (1996) Range extension by the oyster parasite Perkinsus marinus into the northeastern United States: response to climate change? J Shellfish Res 15(1):45–56

    Google Scholar 

  96. Ford JKB (2005) First records of long-beaked common Dolphins, Delphinus capensis, Canadian waters. Can Field Nat 119(1):110–113

    Google Scholar 

  97. Ford JKB (2006) An assessment of critical habitats of resident killer whales in waters off the Pacific coast of Canada. Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2006/072

  98. Ford JKB, Ellis GM, Barrett-Lennard LG, Morton AB, Palm RS, Balcomb KC (1998) Dietary specialization in two sympatric populations of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in coastal British Columbia and adjacent waters. Can J Zool 76(8):1456–1471

    Google Scholar 

  99. Ford JKB, Ellis GM, Olesiuk PF (2005) Linking prey and population dynamics: did food limitation cause recent declines of ‘resident’ killer whales (Orcinus orca) in British Columbia. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Can Sci Advis Secr 2005/42

  100. Foreman MGG, Callendar W, MacFadyen A, Hickey BM, Thomson RE, Di Lorenzo E (2008) Modeling the generation of the Juan de Fuca Eddy. J Geophys Res Oceans 113(C3). doi:10.1029/2006jc004082

  101. Foreman M, Stucchi D, Garver K, Tuele D, Isaac J, Grime T, Guo M, Morrison J (2012) A circulation model for the Discovery Islands, British Columbia. Atmos Ocean 50(3):301–316

    Google Scholar 

  102. Francis RC, Hare SR, Hollowed AB, Wooster WS (1998) Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Fish Oceanogr 7(1):1–21

    Google Scholar 

  103. Frederiksen M, Edwards M, Richardson AJ, Halliday NC, Wanless S (2006) From plankton to top predators: bottom-up control of a marine food web across four trophic levels. J Anim Ecol 75(6):1259–1268

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  104. Freeland HJ (2013) Evidence of change in the winter mixed layer in the Northeast Pacific Ocean: a problem revisited. Atmos Ocean 51(1):126–133. doi:10.1080/07055900.2012.754330

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  105. Freeland H, Denman K, Wong CS, Whitney F, Jacques R (1997) Evidence of change in the winter mixed layer in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Deep Sea Res Part I 44(12):2117–2129

    Google Scholar 

  106. Fu C, Beamish R (2008) Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production. In: Hollowed AB, Beamish RJ, Okey TA, Schirripa MJ (eds) Reports of PICES/NPRB workshops on forecasting climate impacts on future production of commercially exploited fish and shellfish. PICES scientific report no. 34, North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), Sydney, BC, Canada, pp 37–39

  107. Fulton JD (1985) Summary of unusual sightings of marine species off British Columbia during the 1982-82 El Niño. In: Wooster WS, Fluharty DL (eds) El Niño north: Niño effects in the eastern subarctic Pacific Ocean. Washington Sea Grant, Seattle, pp 248–252

    Google Scholar 

  108. Gaston AT, Gilchrist HG, Mallory ML, Smith PA (2009) Changes in seasonal events, peak food availability, and consequent breeding adjustment in a marine bird: a case of progressive mismatching. Condor 111(1):111–119. doi:10.1525/cond.2009.080077

    Google Scholar 

  109. Gemmrich J, Thomas B, Bouchard R (2011) Observational changes and trends in northeast Pacific wave records. Geophys Res Lett 38(22):L22601. doi:10.1029/2011gl049518

    Google Scholar 

  110. Gilmartin WG, Forcada J (2002) Monk Seals. In: Perrin WF, Würsig B, Thewissen JGM (eds) Encyclopedia of marine mammals. Academic Press, San Diego, CA, pp 756–759

    Google Scholar 

  111. Glen F, Mrosovsky N (2004) Antigua revisited: the impact of climate change on sand and nest temperatures at a hawksbill turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting beach. Glob Change Biol 10(12):2036–2045. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00865.x

    Google Scholar 

  112. Goes JI, Gomes HD, Limsakul A, Balch WM, Saino T (2001) El Nino related interannual variations in biological production in the North Pacific as evidenced by satellite and ship data. Prog Oceanogr 49(1–4):211–225. doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(01)00023-4

    Google Scholar 

  113. Grantham BA, Chan F, Nielsen KJ, Fox DS, Barth JA, Huyer A, Lubchenco J, Menge BA (2004) Upwelling-driven nearshore hypoxia signals ecosystem and oceanographic changes in the northeast Pacific. Nature 429(6993):749–754. doi:10.1038/nature02605

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  114. Griffis R, Howard J (eds) (2013) Oceans and marine resources in a changing climate: a technical input to the 2013 national climate assessment. Island Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  115. Guénette S, Christensen V, Hoover C, Lam ME, Preikshot D, Pauly D (2007) A synthesis of research activities a the Fisheries Centre on ecosystem-based fisheries modelling and assessment with emphasis on the northern and central coast of B.C. Univ B C Fish Cent Res Rep 15(1):i–iv, 1–32

    Google Scholar 

  116. Guinotte JM, Fabry VJ (2008) Ocean acidification and its potential effects on marine ecosystems. In: Ostfeld RS, Schlesinger WH (eds) Year in ecology and conservation biology. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1334:320–342. doi:10.1196/annals.1439.013

  117. Gunderson LH, Holling CS (eds) (2002) Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  118. Haggarty DR, King JR, Mathias KL (2004) Bottom trawl survey of young-of-the-year lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus) in the Strait of Georgia by the R/V Neocaligus, July 28-August 9, 2003. Can Manuscr Rep Fish Aquat Sci 2673:IV–V, 1–39

    Google Scholar 

  119. Hallegraeff GM (2010) Ocean climate change, phytoplankton community responses, and harmful algal blooms: a formidable predictive challenge. J Phycol 46(2):220–235. doi:10.1111/j.1529-8817.2010.00815.x

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  120. Harding JA, Ammann AJ, MacFarlane RB (2011) Regional and seasonal patterns of epipelagic fish assemblages from the central California Current. Fish Bull 109(3):261–281

    Google Scholar 

  121. Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog Oceanogr 47(2–4):103–145. doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(00)00033-1

    Google Scholar 

  122. Hare SR, Mantua NJ, Francis RC (1999) Inverse production regimes: Alaska and West Coast Pacific salmon. Fisheries 24(1):6–14. doi:10.1577/1548-8446(1999)024<0006:ipr>2.0.co;2

    Google Scholar 

  123. Hare CE, Leblanc K, DiTullio GR, Kudela RM, Zhang Y, Lee PA, Riseman S, Hutchins DA (2007) Consequences of increased temperature and CO2 for phytoplankton community structure in the Bering Sea. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 352:9–16. doi:10.3354/meps07182

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  124. Hargreaves NB, Hungar RM (1995) Robertson creek chinook assessment and forecast for 1994 and 1995. Part B: early marine mortality. PSARC report S95-03

  125. Harley CDG (2011) Climate change, keystone predation, and biodiversity loss. Science 334(6059):1124–1127. doi:10.1126/science.1210199

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  126. Harley CDG, Hughes AR, Hultgren KM, Miner BG, Sorte CJB, Thornber CS, Rodriguez LF, Tomanek L, Williams SL (2006) The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems. Ecol Lett 9(2):228–241. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00871.x

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  127. Harley CDG, Anderson KM, Demes KW, Jorve JP, Kordas RL, Coyle TA, Graham MH (2012) Effects of climate change on global seaweed communities. J Phycol 48(5):1064–1078. doi:10.1111/j.1529-8817.2012.01224.x

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  128. Harvell CD, Mitchell CE, Ward JR, Altizer S, Dobson AP, Ostfeld RS, Samuel MD (2002) Ecology—climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science 296(5576):2158–2162. doi:10.1126/science.1063699

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  129. Hauri C, Gruber N, Plattner G-K, Alin S, Feely RA, Hales B, Wheeler PA (2009) Ocean acidification in the California current system. Oceanography 22(4):61–71

    Google Scholar 

  130. Hay MB, Calvert SE, Pienitz R, Dallimore A, Thomson RE, Baumgartner TR (2009) Geochemical and diatom signatures of bottom water renewal events in Effingham Inlet, British Columbia (Canada). Mar Geol 262(1–4):50–61. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2009.03.004

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  131. Healey MC, Hennessey T (1998) The paradox of fairness: the impact of escalating complexity on fishery management. Mar Policy 22(2):109–118

    Google Scholar 

  132. Hedd A, Bertram DF, Ryder JL, Jones IL (2006) Effects of interdecadal climate variability on marine trophic interactions: rhinoceros auklets and their fish prey. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 309:263–278. doi:10.3354/meps309263

    Google Scholar 

  133. Hilborn R (1992) Hatcheries and the future of salmon in the northwest. Fisheries 17(1):5–8

    Google Scholar 

  134. Hipfner JM (2008) Matches and mismatches: ocean climate, prey phenology and breeding success in a zooplanktivorous seabird. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 368:295–304. doi:10.3354/meps07603

    Google Scholar 

  135. Hobday AJ (2011) Sliding baselines and shuffling species: implications of climate change for marine conservation. Mar Ecol Evol Perspect 32(3):392–403. doi:10.1111/j.1439-0485.2011.00459.x

    Google Scholar 

  136. Hobday AJ, Pecl GT (2013) Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation. Rev Fish Biol Fish. doi:10.1007/s11160-013-9326-6

  137. Hobday AJ, Okey TA, Poloczanska ES, Kunz TJ, Richardson AJ (eds) (2006) Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life. A report prepared by CSIRO marine and atmospheric research for the Department of the Environment and Heritage, Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia

  138. Hobday AJ, Hartog JR, Spillman CM, Alves O (2011) Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat for dynamic spatial management. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 68(5):898–911. doi:10.1139/f2011-031

    Google Scholar 

  139. Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Ann Rev Ecol Syst 4:1–23

    Google Scholar 

  140. Hollowed AB, Bond NA, Wilderbuer TK, Stockhausen WT, A’Mar ZT, Beamish RJ, Overland JE, Schirripa MJ (2009) A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. ICES J Mar Sci 66(7):1584–1594. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp057

    Google Scholar 

  141. Hollowed AB, Barange M, Ito S, Kim S, Loeng H, Peck MA (2011) Effects of climate change on fish and fisheries: forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem responses, and evaluating management strategies Preface. ICES J Mar Sci 68(6):984–985. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr085

    Google Scholar 

  142. Hollowed AB, Barange M, Beamish R, Brander K, Cochrane K, Drinkwater K, Foreman M, Ito S, Hare J, Holt J, Kim S, King J, Loeng H, MacKenzie B, Muter F, Okey T, Peck MA, Radchenko V, Rice J, Schirripa M, Yatsu A, Yamanaka Y (2013) Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. ICES J Mar Sci Adv. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst1081

  143. Hourston AS, Haegele CW (1980) Herring on Canada’s Pacific coast. Can Spec Publ Fish Aquat Sci 48

  144. Hughes TP, Baird AH, Bellwood DR, Card M, Connolly SR, Folke C, Grosberg R, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jackson JBC, Kleypas J, Lough JM, Marshall P, Nystrom M, Palumbi SR, Pandolfi JM, Rosen B, Roughgarden J (2003) Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301(5635):929–933

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  145. Hughes S, Yau A, Max L, Petrovic N, Davenport F, Marshall M, McClanahan TR, Allison EH, Cinner JE (2012) A framework to assess national level vulnerability from the perspective of food security: the case of coral reef fisheries. Environ Sci Policy 23:95–108. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.012

    Google Scholar 

  146. Hunt GL, Stabeno P, Walters G, Sinclair E, Brodeur RD, Napp JM, Bond NA (2002) Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 49(26):5821–5853

    Google Scholar 

  147. Hutchings JA, Cote IM, Dodson JJ, Fleming IA, Jennings S, Mantua NJ, Peterman RM, Riddell BE, Weaver AJ (2012) Climate change, fisheries, and aquaculture: trends and consequences for Canadian marine biodiversity. Environ Rev 20(4):220–311. doi:10.1139/a2012-011

    Google Scholar 

  148. Hutchinson GE (1957) Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harbor Symp Quant Biol 22:415–427

    Google Scholar 

  149. Ianson D (2008) Ocean acidification off the West Coast. In: State of the Pacific Ocean 2007. DFO Can Sci Advis Rep 2008/028, pp 37–38. www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas

  150. Ianson D, Flostrand L (2010) Ecosystem status and trends report: coastal waters off the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, vol iv. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, DFO Can Sci Advis Secr

  151. Ianson D, Allen SE, Harris SL, Orians KJ, Varela DE, Wong CS (2003) The inorganic carbon system in the coastal upwelling region west of Vancouver Island, Canada. Deep Sea Res Part I Oceanogr Res Pap 50(8):1023–1042. doi:10.1016/s0967-0367(03)00114-6

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  152. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the fourth IPCC assessment report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  153. Irvine JE, Crawford WR (2011) State of the ocean report for the Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA), Can Manuscr Rep Fish Aquat Sci 2971, xii + 561 p

  154. Irvine J, Crawford W (eds) (2012) State of physical, biological, and selected fishery resources of Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems in 2011. DFO Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2012/072. Department of Fisheries Oceans, Ottawa, ON, Canada

  155. Irvine J, Crawford W (eds) (2013) State of physical, biological, and selected fishery resources of Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems in 2012. DFO Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2013/032. Department of Fisheries Oceans, Ottawa, ON, Canada

  156. Jacobson LD, Maccall AD (1995) Stock-recruitment models for Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax). Can J Fish Aquat Sci 52(3):566–577

    Google Scholar 

  157. Jamieson GS (2001) Review of the status of the Northern Abalone, Haliotis kamtschatkana, Canada. Can Field Nat 115(4):555–563

    Google Scholar 

  158. Jennings S, Greenstreet SPR, Reynolds JD (1999) Structural change in an exploited fish community: a consequence of differential fishing effects on species with contrasting life histories. J Anim Ecol 68(3):617–627

    Google Scholar 

  159. Jessen S, Patton S (2008) Protecting marine biodiversity in Canada: adaptation options in the face of climate change. Biodiversity 9 (3–4):47–58

    Google Scholar 

  160. Johannessen SC, MacDonald RW (2009) Effects of local and global change on an inland sea: the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada. Clim Res 40:1–21

    Google Scholar 

  161. Johannessen SC, McCarter B (2010) Ecosystem Status and Trends Report for the Strait of Georgia ecozone. DFO Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2010/010, vi + 45

  162. Jones R, Rigg C, Lee L (2010) Haida marine planning: first nations as a partner in marine conservation. Ecol Soc 15(1):12

    Google Scholar 

  163. Jordán F, Okey TA, Bauer B, Libralato S (2008) Identifying important species: linking structure and function in ecological networks. Ecol Model 216(1):75–80. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.04.009

    Google Scholar 

  164. Kaplan IC, Leonard J (2012) From krill to convenience stores: forecasting the economic and ecological effects of fisheries management on the US west coast. Mar Policy 36(5):947–954. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2012.02.005

    Google Scholar 

  165. Kaplan IC, Horne PJ, Levin PS (2012) Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model. Prog Oceanogr 102:5–18. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.03.009

    Google Scholar 

  166. Karl TR, Meehl GA, Miller CD, Hassol SJ, Waple AM, Murray WL (eds) (2008) Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, Washington, DC

  167. Katz RW, Brown BG (1992) Extreme events in a changing climate—variability is more important than averages. Clim Change 21(3):289–302. doi:10.1007/bf00139728

    Google Scholar 

  168. Kawasaki K, Omori M (1986) Fluctuations in the three major sardine stocks in the Pacific and the global temperature. In: Wyatt T, Larranenta G (eds) Long term changes in marine fish populations. A symposium held in Vigo, Spain, 18–21 November 1986, pp 37–53

  169. Keeling RF, Kortzinger A, Gruber N (2010) Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world. Ann Rev Mar Sci 2:199–229. doi:10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163855

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  170. Kelley AL, de Rivera CE, Buckley BA (2011) Intraspecific variation in thermotolerance and morphology of the invasive European green crab, Carcinus maenas, on the west coast of North America. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 409(1–2):70–78. doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2011.08.005

    Google Scholar 

  171. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang XB, Hegerl GC (2007) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J Clim 20(8):1419–1444. doi:10.1175/jcli4066.1

    Google Scholar 

  172. King JR, McFarlane GA, Beamish RJ (2000) Decadal scale patterns in the relative year class success of sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria. Fish Oceanogr 9(1):62–70

    Google Scholar 

  173. King JR, Agostini VN, Harvey CJ, McFarlane GA, Foreman MGG, Overland JE, Di Lorenzo E, Bond NA, Aydin KY (2011) Climate forcing and the California Current ecosystem. ICES J Mar Sci 68(6):1199–1216. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr009

    Google Scholar 

  174. Kleypas JA, Feely RA, Fabry VJ, Langdon C, Sabine CL, Robbins LL (2005) Impacts of ocean acidification on coral reefs and other marine calcifiers: a guide for future research, pp 18–20

  175. Koch M, Bowes G, Ross C, Zhang XH (2013) Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae. Glob Change Biol 19(1):103–132. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02791.x

    Google Scholar 

  176. Koslow JA, Goericke R, Lara-Lopez A, Watson W (2011) Impact of declining intermediate-water oxygen on deepwater fishes in the California Current. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 436:207–218. doi:10.3354/meps09270

    Google Scholar 

  177. Krkosek M, Ford JS, Morton A, Lele S, Myers RA, Lewis MA (2007) Declining wild salmon populations in relation to parasites from farm salmon. Science 318(5857):1772–1775

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  178. Kudela RM, Cochlan WP, Peterson TD, Trick CG (2006) Impacts on phytoplankton biomass and productivity in the Pacific Northwest during the warm ocean conditions of 2005. Geophys Res Lett 33(22). doi:10.1029/2006gl026772

  179. Lackey RT, Lach DH, Duncan SL (2006) Wild salmon in western North America: the historical and policy context. In: Lackey RT, Lach DH, Duncan SL (eds) Salmon 2100: the future of wild Pacific Salmon. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, ML, pp 13–55

    Google Scholar 

  180. Lahaye V, Bustamante P, Law RJ, Learmonth JA, Santos MB, Boon JP, Rogan E, Dabin W, Addink MJ, Lopez A, Zuur AF, Pierce GJ, Caurant F (2007) Biological and ecological factors related to trace element levels in harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) from European waters. Mar Environ Res 64(3):247–266. doi:10.1016/j.marenvres.2007.01.005

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  181. Lamb A, Hanby B (2005) Marine life of the Pacific Northwest: a photographic encyclopaedia of invertebrates, seaweeds and selected fishes. Harbour Publishing, Madiera Park, BC

    Google Scholar 

  182. Larsen CF, Motyka RJ, Arendt AA, Echelmeyer KA, Geissler PE (2007) Glacier changes in southeast Alaska and northwest British Columbia and contribution to sea level rise. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 112(F1). doi:10.1029/2006jf000586

  183. Lavaniegos BE, Ohman MD (2003) Long-term changes in pelagic tunicates of the California Current. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 50(14–16):2473–2498. doi:10.1016/s0967-0645(03)00132-2

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  184. Lavaniegos BE, Ohman MD (2007) Coherence of long-term variations of zooplankton in two sectors of the California Current System. Prog Oceanogr 75(1):42–69. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2007.07.002

    Google Scholar 

  185. Le Boeuf BJ, Crocker DE (2005) Ocean climate and seal condition. BMC Biol 3. doi:10.1186/1741-7007-3-9

  186. Learmonth JA, MacLeod CD, Santos MB, Pierce GJ, Crick HQP, Robinson RA (2006) Potential effects of climate change on marine mammals. In: Gibson RN, Atkinson RJA, Gordon JDM (eds) Oceanography and marine biology—an annual review. Oceanogr Mar Biol 44:431–464

  187. Lee T, McPhaden MJ (2010) Increasing intensity of El Nino in the central-equatorial Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 37. doi:10.1029/2010gl044007

  188. Levings CD, Cordell JR, Ong S, Piercey G (2004) The origin and identity of invertebrate organisms being transported to Canada's Pacific coast by ballast water. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 61(1):1–11. doi:10.1139/f03-135

    Google Scholar 

  189. Li L, Ainsworth C, Pitcher T (2010) Presence of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) may increase exploitable fish biomass in the Strait of Georgia. Prog Oceanogr 87(1–4):235–241. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.006

    Google Scholar 

  190. Li L, Mackas D, Hunt B, Schweigert J, Pakhomov E, Perry RI, Galbraith M, Pitcher TJ (2013) Zooplankton communities in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, track large-scale climate forcing over the Pacific Ocean. Prog Oceanogr 111:90–102

    Google Scholar 

  191. Lin BB, Morefield PE (2011) The vulnerability cube: a multi-dimensional framework for assessing relative vulnerability. Environ Manag 48(3):631–643. doi:10.1007/s00267-011-9690-8

    Google Scholar 

  192. Lo V, Chan KMA, Levings CD (2010) Effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species in British Columbia. In: Crawford WR, Irvine JR (eds) DFO Can Sci Advis Sec Res Doc 2010/053, viii + 137 p, pp 77–81

  193. Lo V, Okey TA, Wallace K (2011) Fauna and Flora. In: Okey TA, Loucks LA (eds) Social-ecological assessment for the marine and coastal areas of the West Coast of Vancouver Island. The Tsawalk Partnership, West Coast Aquatic, Port Alberni, BC, Canada

  194. Lucas BG, Jamieson GS (2007) Chapter 2: Habitat use and functional areas in the Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area In: Lucas BG, Verrin S, Brown R (eds) Ecosystem overview: Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA). Can Tech Rep Fish Aquat Sci 2667, xiii + 104 p

  195. Lucas BG, Verrin S, Brown R (eds) (2007) Ecosystem overview: Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA). Can Tech Rep Fish Aquat Sci 2667, xiii + 104 p

  196. Ludwig D, Walker B, Holling CS (1997) Sustainability, stability, and resilience. Conserv Ecol 1(1):7

    Google Scholar 

  197. Lusseau D, Williams R, Wilson B, Grellier K, Barton TR, Hammond PS, Thompson PM (2004) Parallel influence of climate on the behaviour of Pacific killer whales and Atlantic bottlenose dolphins. Ecol Lett 7(11):1068–1076. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00669.x

    Google Scholar 

  198. MacArthur RH, Levins R (1967) The limiting similarity, convergence, and divergence of coexisting species. Am Nat 101:377–385

    Google Scholar 

  199. MacCall AD (1979) Population estimates for the waning years of the Pacific sardine fishery. CalCOFI reports 20

  200. MacFadyen A, Hickey BM, Foreman MGG (2005) Transport of surface waters from the Juan de Fuca eddy region to the Washington coast. Cont Shelf Res 25(16):2008–2021. doi:10.1016/j.csr.2005.07.005

    Google Scholar 

  201. MacFadyen A, Hickey BM, Cochlan WP (2008) Influences of the Juan de Fuca Eddy on circulation, nutrients, and phytoplankton production in the northern California Current System. J Geophys Res Oceans 113(C8). doi:10.1029/2007jc004412

  202. Mackas DL, Galbraith M (2002) Zooplankton community composition along the inner portion of Line P during the 1997–1998 El Nino event. Prog Oceanogr 54(1–4):423–437. doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(02)00062-9

    Google Scholar 

  203. Mackas DL, Tsuda A (1999) Mesozooplankton in the eastern and western subarctic Pacific: community structure, seasonal life histories, and interannual variability. Prog Oceanogr 43(2–4):335–363. doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(99)00012-9

    Google Scholar 

  204. Mackas DL, Goldblatt R, Lewis AG (1998) Interdecadal variation in developmental timing of Neocalanus plumchrus populations at Ocean Station P in the subarctic North Pacific. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 55(8):1878–1893. doi:10.1139/cjfas-55-8-1878

    Google Scholar 

  205. Mackas DL, Peterson WT, Ohman MD, Lavaniegos BE (2006) Zooplankton anomalies in the California Current system before and during the warm ocean conditions of 2005. Geophys Res Lett 33(22). doi:10.1029/2006gl027930

  206. Mackas DL, Batten S, Trudel M (2007) Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific. Prog Oceanogr 75(2):223–252. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2007.08.010

    Google Scholar 

  207. MacLeod CD, Bannon SM, Pierce GJ, Schweder C, Learmonth JA, Herman JS, Reid RJ (2005) Climate change and the cetacean community of north-west Scotland. Biol Conserv 124(4):477–483. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2005.02.004

    Google Scholar 

  208. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(6):1069–1079

    Google Scholar 

  209. Markon CJ, Trainor SF, Chapin FS (eds) (2012) The United States national climate assessment—Alaska technical regional report. U.S. Geol Surv Circ 1379, 148 p

  210. Martins EG, Hinch SG, Cooke SJ, Patterson DA (2012) Climate effects on growth, phenology, and survival of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka): a synthesis of the current state of knowledge and future research directions. Rev Fish Biol Fish 22(4):887–914. doi:10.1007/s11160-012-9271-9

    Google Scholar 

  211. Mazzotti S, Lambert A, Van der Kooij M, Mainville A (2009) Impact of anthropogenic subsidence on relative sea-level rise in the Fraser River delta. Geology 37(9):771–774. doi:10.1130/g25640a.1

    Google Scholar 

  212. McCay BJ, Brandt S, Creed CF (2011) Human dimensions of climate change and fisheries in a coupled system: the Atlantic surfclam case. ICES J Mar Sci 68(6):1354–1367. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr044

    Google Scholar 

  213. McClanahan TR, Cinner JE, Maina J, Graham NAJ, Daw TM, Stead SM, Wamukota A, Brown K, Ateweberhan M, Venus V, Polunin NVC (2008) Conservation action in a changing climate. Conserv Lett 1:53–59

    Google Scholar 

  214. McClatchie S, Goericke R, Cosgrove R, Auad G, Vetter R (2010) Oxygen in the Southern California Bight: multidecadal trends and implications for demersal fisheries. Geophys Res Lett 37:L19602. doi:10.1029/2010gl044497

    Google Scholar 

  215. McFarlane GA, King JR, Beamish RJ (2000) Have there been recent changes in climate? Ask the fish. Prog Oceanogr 47(2–4):147–169

    Google Scholar 

  216. McFarlane GA, Schweigert J, MacDougall L, Hrabok C (2005) Distribution and biology of Pacific sardines (Sardinops sagax) off British Columbia, Canada. Calif Coop Ocean Fish Invest Rep 46:144–160

    Google Scholar 

  217. McKinnell S (2008) Fraser River sockeye salmon productivity and climate: a re-analysis that avoids an undesirable property of Ricker’s curve. Prog Oceanogr 77(2–3):146–154. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.014

    Google Scholar 

  218. McKinnell SM, Dagg MJ (eds) (2010) Marine Ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean, 2003–2008. PICES Spec Publ 4:393 p

  219. McMahon CR, Hays GC (2006) Thermal niche, large-scale movements and implications of climate change for a critically endangered marine vertebrate. Glob Change Biol 12(7):1330–1338. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01174.x

    Google Scholar 

  220. Melin SR, Orr AJ, Harris JD, Laake JL, DeLong RL (2012) California sea lions: an indicator for integrated ecosystem assessment of the California current system. Calif Coop Ocean Fish Invest Rep 53:140–152

    Google Scholar 

  221. Merryfield WJ (2006) Changes to ENSO under CO2 doubling in a multimodel ensemble. J Clim 19(16):4009–4027. doi:10.1175/jcli3834.1

    Google Scholar 

  222. Miller AW, Reynolds AC, Sobrino C, Riedel GF (2009) Shellfish face uncertain future in high CO2 world: influence of acidification on oyster larvae calcification and growth in estuaries. PLoS ONE 4(5):e5661

    PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  223. Miller K, Charles A, Barange M, Brander K, Gallucci VF, Gasalla MA, Khan A, Munro G, Murtugudde R, Ommer RE, Perry RI (2010) Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: institutional responses through integrative science. Prog Oceanogr 87(1–4):338–346. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.014

    Google Scholar 

  224. Moore JD, Robbins TT, Friedman CS (2000) Withering syndrome in farmed red abalone Haliotis rufescens: thermal induction and association with a gastrointestinal Rickettsiales-like prokaryote. J Aquat Anim Health 12(1):26–34

    Google Scholar 

  225. Morrison J, Quick MC, Foreman MGG (2002) Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections. J Hydrol 263(1–4):230–244. doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00065-3

    Google Scholar 

  226. Moser SC, Williams SJ, Boesch DF (2012) Wicked challenges at land’s end: managing coastal vulnerability under climate change. In: Gadgil A, Liverman DM (eds) Annu Rev Environ Resour 37:51. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-021611-135158

  227. Mrosovsky N, Baptistotte C, Godfrey MH (1999) Validation of incubation duration as an index of the sex ratio of hatchling sea turtles. Can J Zool 77(5):831–835. doi:10.1139/cjz-77-5-831

    Google Scholar 

  228. Mudie PJ, Rochon A, Levac E (2002) Palynological records of red tide-producing species in Canada: past trends and implications for the future. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 180(1–3):159–186. doi:10.1016/s0031-0182(01)00427-8

    Google Scholar 

  229. Mueter FJ, Litzow MA (2008) Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf. Ecol Appl 18(2):309–320. doi:10.1890/07-0564.1

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  230. Mueter FJ, Peterman RM, Pyper BJ (2002) Opposite effects of ocean temperature on survival rates of 120 stocks of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in northern and southern areas. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 59(3):456–463. doi:10.1139/f02-020

    Google Scholar 

  231. Mueter FJ, Broms C, Drinkwater KF, Friedland KD, Hare JA, Hunt GL, Melle W, Taylor M (2009) Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ecosystems. Prog Oceanogr 81(1–4):93–110. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2009.04.018

    Google Scholar 

  232. Mundy PR, Allen DM, Boldt JL, Bond NA, Dressel S, Farley EV Jr, Hanselman DH, Heifetz J, Hopcroft RR, Janout MA, Ladd C, Lam RC, Livingston PA, Lunsford CR, Mathis JT, Mueter FJ, Rooper CN, Sarkar N, Shotwell SAK, Sturdevant MV, Thomas AC, Weingartner TJ, Woodby D (2010) Status and trends of the Alaska Current Region, 2003–2008. In: McKinnell SM, Dagg MJ (eds) Marine ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean, 2003–2008. PICES Spec Publ 4:142–195

  233. Murawski SA (1993) Climate-change and marine fish distributions - forecasting from historical analogy. Trans Am Fish Soc 122(5):647–658. doi:10.1577/1548-8659(1993)122<0647:ccamfd>2.3.co;2

    Google Scholar 

  234. Napp JM, Hunt GL Jr (2001) Anomalous conditions in the south-eastern Bering Sea 1997: linkages among climate, weather, ocean, and biology. Fish Oceanogr 10(1):61–68

    Google Scholar 

  235. Nehlsen W, Williams JE, Lichatowich JA (1991) Pacific salmon at the crossroads: stocks at risk from California, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington. Fisheries 16(2):4–21

    Google Scholar 

  236. Noakes DJ, Beamish RJ, Kent ML (2000) On the decline of Pacific salmon and speculative links to salmon farming in British Columbia. Aquaculture 183:363–386

    Google Scholar 

  237. NRC (1996) Upstream: salmon and society in the Pacific Northwest. National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  238. NRC (2002) Abrupt climate change: Inevitable surprises. National Research Council (U.S.), Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Academy Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  239. Okey TA (2003) Macrobenthic colonist guilds and renegades in Monterey Canyon (USA) drift algae: partitioning multidimensions. Ecol Monogr 73(3):415–440

    Google Scholar 

  240. Okey TA (2004a) A search for keystones in Prince William Sound, Alaska using a mass-continuity trophic model. In: Shifted community states in four marine ecosystems: some potential mechanisms. PhD, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, pp 60–83

  241. Okey TA (2004b) Shifted community states in four marine ecosystems: some potential mechanisms. Zoology. PhD Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver

  242. Okey TA, Dallimore A (2011) Climate and oceanography. In: Okey TA, Loucks LA (eds) Social-ecological assessment for the marine and coastal areas of the West Coast of Vancouver Island. The Tsawalk partnership, West Coast Aquatic, Port Alberni, BC, Canada

  243. Okey TA, Loucks LA (eds) (2011) Social-ecological assessment for the marine and coastal areas of the West Coast of Vancouver Island. The Tsawalk partnership, West Coast Aquatic, Port Alberni, BC, Canada

  244. Okey TA, Engstrom N, Babcock R (2006) Impacts of climate change on kelp. In: Hobday AJ, Okey TA, Poloczanska ES, Kunz TJ, Richardson AJ (eds) Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life: part C. Literature review. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia, pp 44–52

  245. Okey TA, Wright BA, Brubaker MY (2007) Salmon shark connections: North Pacific climate change, indirect fisheries effects, or just variability? Fish Fish 8(4):359–366

    Google Scholar 

  246. Okey TA, Hollowed AB, Schirripa MJ (2008) PICES fishery science committee and physical oceanography and climate committee workshop in Gijón. PICES Press 16(2):16–18

    Google Scholar 

  247. Okey TA, Alidina HM, Lo V, Montenegro A, Jessen S (2012) Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems. CPAWS BC and WWF-Canada, Vancouver 156 pp

  248. Orr JC, Fabry VJ, Aumont L, Bopp L, Doney SC, Feely RA, Gnanadesikan A, Gruber N, Ishida A, Joos F, Key RM, Lindsay K, Maier-Reimer E, Matear R, Monfray P, Mouchet A, Najjar RG, Plattner G-K, Rodgers KB, Sabine CL, Sarmiento JL, Schlitzer R, Slater RD, Totterdell IJ, Weirig M-F, Yamanaka Y, Yool A (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437:681–686

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  249. Orsi JA, Harding JA, Pool SS, Brodeur RD, Haldorson LJ, Murphy JM, Moss JH, Farley EV, Sweeting RM, Morris JFT, Trudel M, Beamish R, Emmett RL, Ferguson EA (2007) Epipelagic fish assemblages associated with juvenile Pacific salmon in neritic waters of the California Current and the Alaska Current. Am Fish Soc Symp 57:105–155

    Google Scholar 

  250. Overland JE, Wang M (2007) Future climate of the North Pacific Ocean. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 88(16). doi:10.1029/2007EO160003

  251. Paine RT (1969) A note on trophic complexity and community stability. Am Nat 103:91–93

    Google Scholar 

  252. Paine RT (1995) A conversation on refining the concept of keystone species. Conserv Biol 9(4):962–964. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1995.09040962.x

    Google Scholar 

  253. Palm RS (2006) Year-end report. Strawberry Isle Marine Research Society, Tofino

  254. Parrish JK, Bond N, Nevins H, Mantua N, Loeffel R, Peterson WT, Harvey JT (2007) Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 352:275–288. doi:10.3354/meps07077

    Google Scholar 

  255. Pauly D, Pitcher TJ, Preikshot D (eds) (1998) Back to the future: reconstructing the strait of Georgia ecosystem. Fish Cent Res Rep, vol 6(5), University of British Columbia Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, p 99

  256. Pauly D, Palomares ML, Froese R, Sa-a P, Vakily M, Preikshot D, Wallace S (2001) Fishing down Canadian aquatic food webs. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 58(1):51–62

    Google Scholar 

  257. Pecl GT, Jackson GD (2008) The potential impacts of climate change on inshore squid: biology, ecology and fisheries. Rev Fish Biol Fish 18(4):373–385. doi:10.1007/s11160-007-9077-3

    Google Scholar 

  258. Peery MZ, Becker BH, Beissinger SR (2007) Age ratios as estimators of productivity: testing assumptions on a threatened seabird, the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus). Auk 124(1):224–240. doi:10.1642/0004-8038(2007)124[224:ARAEOP]2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  259. Pellegrin N, Boutillier J, Lauzier R, Verrin S, Johannessen D (2007) Appendix F: Invertebrates. In: Lucas BG, Verrin S, Brown R (eds) Ecosystem overview: Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA). Can Tech Rep Fish Aquat Sci. 2667, iii + 37 p

  260. Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD (2005) Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308(5730):1912–1915. doi:10.1126/science.1111322

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  261. Perry RI, Crawford B, Sinclair A (2007) Chapter 1: ecosystem description. In: Lucas BG, Verrin S, Brown R (eds) Ecosystem overview: Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA). Can Tech Rep Fish Aquat Sci 2667, xiii + 104 p, pp 3–45

  262. Perry RI, Cury P, Brander K, Jennings S, Mollmann C, Planque B (2010) Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: concepts, issues and management responses. J Mar Syst 79(3–4):427–435. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.017

    Google Scholar 

  263. Phillips AJ, Ralston S, Brodeur RD, Auth TD, Emmett RL, Johnson C, Wespestad VG (2007) Recent pre-recruit Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) occurrences in the northern California Current suggest a northward expansion of their spawning area. Calif Coop Ocean Fish Invest Rep 48:215–229

    Google Scholar 

  264. Pike RG, Spittlehouse DL, Bennett KE, Egginton VN, Tschaplinski PJ, Murdock TQ, Werner AT (2008) Climate change and watershed hydrology: part I—recent and projected changes in British Columbia. Streamline Watershed Manag Bull 11(2):1–8

    Google Scholar 

  265. Pitcher TJ (2005) Back-to-the-future: a fresh policy initiative for fisheries and a restoration ecology for ocean ecosystems. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 360(1453):107–121. doi:10.1098/rstb2004.1575

    Google Scholar 

  266. Poloczanska ES (2006) Impacts of climate change on seagrasses. In: Hobday AJ, Okey TA, Poloczanska ES, Kunz TJ, Richardson AJ (eds) Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life: part C. Literature review. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia, pp 27–35

  267. Poloczanska ES, Babcock RC, Butler A, Hobday A, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Kunz TJ, Matear R, Milton DA, Okey TA, Richardson AJ (2007) Climate change and Australian marine life. Oceanogr Mar Biol 45:407–478

    Google Scholar 

  268. Poloczanska ES, Limpus CJ, Hays GC (2009) Vulnerability of marine turtles to climate change. In: Sims DW (ed) Adv Mar Biol 56:151–211. doi:10.1016/s0065-2881(09)56002-6

  269. Poloczanska ES, Brown CJ, Sydeman WJ, Kiessling W, Schoeman DS, Moore PJ, Brander K, Bruno JF, Buckley LB, Burrows MT, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Holding J, Kappel CV, O’Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Schwing F, Thompson SA, Richardson AJ (2013) Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nat Clim Change. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1958

  270. Portner HO, Langenbuch M, Michaelidis B (2005) Synergistic effects of temperature extremes, hypoxia, and increases in CO2 on marine animals: from Earth history to global change. J Geophys Res Oceans 110(C9). doi:10.1029/2004jc002561

  271. Preikshot DB (2007) The influence of geographic scale, climate and trophic dynamics upon north Pacific oceanic ecosystem models. PhD, University of British Columbia, Vancouver

  272. Preikshot D, Beamish RJ, Neville CM (2013) A dynamic model describing ecosystem-level changes in the Strait of Georgia from 1960 to 2010. Prog Oceanogr 115:28–40

    Google Scholar 

  273. Rabalais NN, Diaz RJ, Levin LA, Turner RE, Gilbert D, Zhang J (2010) Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia. Biogeosciences 7(2):585–619

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  274. Reed TE, Schindler DE, Hague MJ, Patterson DA, Meir E, Waples RS, Hinch SG (2011) Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence. PLoS One 6(6). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020380

  275. Reid PC, Beaugrand G (2012) Global synchrony of an accelerating rise in sea surface temperature. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 92(7):1435–1450. doi:10.1017/s0025315412000549

    Google Scholar 

  276. Richardson AJ (2008) In hot water: zooplankton and climate change. ICES J Mar Sci 65(3):279–295. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn028

    Google Scholar 

  277. Robinson CLK, Ware DM (1999) Simulated and observed response of the southwest Vancouver Island pelagic ecosystem to oceanic conditions in the 1990 s. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 56(12):2433–2443

    Google Scholar 

  278. Robinson A, Crick HQ, Learmonth JA, Maclean IM, Thomas CD, Bairlein F, Forchhammer MC, Francis CM, Gill JA, Godley BJ (2009) Travelling through a warming world: climate change and migratory species. Endanger Species Res 7:87–99

    Google Scholar 

  279. Rodenhuis D, Bennett KE, Werner AT, Murdock TQ, Bronaugh D (2007) Climate overview 2007. Pacific climate impacts consortium. University of Victoria, Victoria, BC

    Google Scholar 

  280. Roemmich D, McGowan J (1995) Climatic warming and the decline of zooplankton in the California Current. Science 267(5202):1324–1326

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  281. Rogers-Bennett L (2007a) The ecology of Strongylocentrotus franciscanus and Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. Dev Aquac Fish Sci 37:393–425

    Google Scholar 

  282. Rogers-Bennett L (2007b) Is climate change contributing to range reductions and localized extinctions in northern (Haliotis kamtschatkana) and flat (Haliotis walallensis) abalones? Bull Mar Sci 81(2):283–296

    Google Scholar 

  283. Rose KA, Allen JI, Artioli Y, Barange M, Blackford J, Carlotti F, Cropp R, Daewel U, Edwards K, Flynn K, Hill SL, HilleRisLambers R, Huse G, Mackinson S, Megrey B, Moll A, Rivkin R, Salihoglu B, Schrum C, Shannon L, Shin YJ, Smith SL, Smith C, Solidoro C, St John M, Zhou M (2010) End-to-end models for the analysis of marine ecosystems: challenges, issues, and next steps. Mar Coast Fish 2(1):115–130. doi:10.1577/c09-059.1

    Google Scholar 

  284. Royer TC (1998) Coastal Ocean processes in the northern North Pacific. In: Brink KH, Robinson AR (eds) The Sea, vol 11. Wiley, New York, pp 395–414

    Google Scholar 

  285. Ruggiero P, Komar PD, Allan JC (2010) Increasing wave heights and extreme value projections: tshe wave climate of the US Pacific Northwest. Coast Eng 57(5):539–552. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.12.005

    Google Scholar 

  286. Ruzicka JJ, Brodeur RD, Emmett RL, Steele JH, Zamon JE, Morgan CA, Thomas AC, Wainwright TC (2012) Interannual variability in the Northern California Current food web structure: changes in energy flow pathways and the role of forage fish, euphausiids, and jellyfish. Prog Oceanogr 102:19–41. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.02.002

    Google Scholar 

  287. Sabine CL, Feely RA, Gruber N, Key RM, Lee K, Bullister JL, Wanninkhof R, Wong CS, Wallace DWR, Tilbrook B, Millero FJ, Peng T-H, Kozyr A, Ono T, Rios AF (2004) The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2. Science 305(5682):367–371. doi:10.1126/science.1097403

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  288. Saksida SM (2006) Infectious haematopoietic necrosis epidemic (2001 to 2003) in farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in British Columbia. Dis Aquat Org 72:213–223

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  289. Salmon DK (1997) Oceanography of the Eastern North Pacific. In: Schoonmaker PK, Von Hagen B, Wolf EC (eds) The rain forests of home: profile of a North American bioregion. Island Press, Washington, DC, pp 7–23

    Google Scholar 

  290. Sanford E (1999) Regulation of keystone predation by small changes in ocean temperature. Science 283(5410):2095–2097. doi:10.1126/science.283.5410.2095

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  291. Sarmiento JL, Hughes TMC, Stouffer RJ, Manabe S (1998) Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming. Nature 393(6682):245–249

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  292. Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413(6856):591–596

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  293. Schell DM (2000) Declining carrying capacity in the Bering Sea: isotopic evidence from whale baleen. Limnol Oceanogr 45(2):459–462

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  294. Schiel DR, Steinbeck JR, Foster MS (2004) Ten years of induced ocean warming causes comprehensive changes in marine benthic communities. Ecology 85(7):1833–1839

    Google Scholar 

  295. Schirripa MJ (2008) Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions. In: Hollowed AB, Beamish RJ, Okey TA, Schirripa MJ (eds) Reports of PICES/NPRB workshops on forecasting climate impacts on future production of commercially exploited fish and shellfish. PICES scientific report no. 34, North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), Sydney, BC, Canada, pp 35–36

  296. Schnute JT, Haigh R, Krishka BA, Starr P (2001) Pacific Ocean Perch Assessment for the West Coast of Canada in 2001. Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2002/138, 96 pp

  297. Schoonmaker PK, Von Hagen B, Wolf EC (1997) The rain forests of home: profile of a North American bioregion. Island Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  298. Schweigert J (2007) Small pelagic fishes. In: State of the Pacific Ocean 2006. DFO Can Sci Advis Secr Rep 2007/019, pp 50–55

  299. Schweigert JF, Boldt JL, Flostrand L, Cleary JS (2010) A review of factors limiting recovery of Pacific herring stocks in Canada. ICES J Mar Sci 67(9):1903–1913. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsq134

    Google Scholar 

  300. Schweigert J, Wood C, Hay D, McAllister M, Boldt J, McCarter B, Therriault TW, Brekke H (2012) Recovery potential assessment of eulachon (Thaleichthys pacificus) in Canada. DFO Can Sci Advis Secr Res Doc 2012/098, vii + 121 p

  301. Schweigert J, McCarter B, Wood C, Hay D, Boldt J, Therriault T, Brekke H (2013) Eulachon. In: Irvine J, Crawford W (eds) State of physical, biological, and selected fishery resources of Pacific Canadian marine ecosystems in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2013/032. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat, Department of Fisheries Oceans, Ottawa, ON, Canada, pp 66–68

  302. Shaw J, Taylor RB, Forbes DL, Ruz M-H, Solomon S (1998) Sensitivity of the coasts of Canada to sea-level rise. Geol Surv Can Bull 505:79

    Google Scholar 

  303. Simmonds MP, Isaac SJ (2007) The impacts of climate change on marine mammals: early signs of significant problems. Oryx 41(1):19–26. doi:10.1017/s0030605307001524

    Google Scholar 

  304. Sinclair AF, Crawford WR (2005) Incorporating an environmental stock-recruitment relationship in the assessment of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Fish Oceanogr 14(2):138–150. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2419.2005.00326.x

    Google Scholar 

  305. Slaney TL, Hyatt KD, Northcote TG, Fielden RJ (1996) Status of anadromous salmon and trout in British Columbia and Yukon. Fisheries 21(10):20–35. doi:10.1577/1548-8446(1996)021<0020:soasat>2.0.co;2

    Google Scholar 

  306. Snyder MA, Sloan LC, Diffenbaugh NS, Bell JL (2003) Future climate change and upwelling in the California Current. Geophys Res Lett 30(15). doi:10.1029/2003gl017647

  307. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. http://www.cambridge.org/features/earth_environmental/climatechange/wg1.htm

  308. Spencer PD (2008) Density-independent and density-dependent factors affecting temporal changes in spatial distributions of eastern Bering Sea flatfish. Fish Oceanogr 17(5):396–410. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2419.2008.00486.x

    Google Scholar 

  309. Springer AM, Byrd GV, Iverson SJ (2007) Hot oceanography: planktivorous seabirds reveal ecosystem responses to warming of the Bering Sea. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 352:289–297. doi:10.3354/meps07080

    Google Scholar 

  310. Stabeno PJ, Hermann AJ, Bond NA, Bograd SJ (1995) Modeling the impact of climate variability on the advection of larval walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska. Can Spec Publ Fish Aquat Sci 121:719–727

    Google Scholar 

  311. Stahl K, Moore RD, McKendry IG (2006) The role of synoptic-scale circulation in the linkage between large-scale ocean-atmosphere indices and winter surface climate in British Columbia, Canada. Int J Climatol 26(4):541–560. doi:10.1002/joc.1268

    Google Scholar 

  312. Steele JH (2012) Prediction, scenarios and insight: the uses of an end-to-end model. Prog Oceanogr 102:67–73. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.03.005

    Google Scholar 

  313. Steele JH, Hofmann EE, Gifford DJ (2012) End-to-end models: management applications preface. Prog Oceanogr 102:1–4. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2012.03.003

    Google Scholar 

  314. Steneck RS, Graham MH, Bourque BJ, Corbett D, Erlandson JM, Estes JA, Tegner MJ (2002) Kelp forest ecosystems: biodiversity, stability, resilience and future. Environ Conserv 29(4):436–459

    Google Scholar 

  315. Stock CA, Alexander MA, Bond NA, Brander KM, Cheung WWL, Curchitser EN, Delworth TL, Dunne JP, Griffies SM, Haltuch MA, Hare JA, Hollowed AB, Lehodey P, Levin SA, Link JS, Rose KA, Rykaczewski RR, Sarmiento JL, Stouffer RJ, Schwing FB, Vecchi GA, Werner FE (2011) On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Prog Oceanogr 88(1–4):1–27. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.001

    Google Scholar 

  316. Sumaila UR, Walters C (2005) Intergenerational discounting: a new intuitive approach. Ecol Econ 52(2):135–142. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2003.11.012

    Google Scholar 

  317. Sunday JM, Bates AE, Dulvy NK (2012) Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nat Clim Change 2(9):686–690. doi:10.1038/nclimate1539

    Google Scholar 

  318. Teal LR, de Leeuw JJ, van der Veer HW, Rijnsdorp AD (2008) Effects of climate change on growth of 0-group sole and plaice. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 358:219–230. doi:10.3354/meps07367

    Google Scholar 

  319. Thomson RE (1981) Oceanography of the British Columbia Coast. Can Spec Publ Fish Aquat Sci 56:291

    Google Scholar 

  320. Thomson RE, Crawford WR (1997) Processes affecting sea level change along the coasts of British Columbia and the Yukon. Paper presented at the responding to global climate change in British Columbia and the Yukon. Volume I of the Canada country study: climate impacts and adaptation, proceedings of the workshop held on February 27–28, 1997 at Simon Fraser University. Environment Canada and BC Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks, 19 p. http://www.pyr.ec.gc.ca/EN/_pdf/Climate_impact_vol1.pdf

  321. Thomson RE, Krassovski MV (2010) Poleward reach of the California Undercurrent extension. J Geophys Res Oceans 115. doi:10.1029/2010jc006280

  322. Thomson KA, Ingraham WJ, Healey MC, Leblond PH, Groot C, Healey CG (1994) Computer simulations of the influence of ocean currents on Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) return times. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 51(2):441–449

    Google Scholar 

  323. Thomson RE, Bornhold BD, Mazzotti S (2008) An examination of the factors affecting relative and absolute sea level in British Columbia. Canadian technical report of hydrography and ocean sciences, vol 260. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, BC

  324. Tillmann P, Siemann D (2011) Climate change effects and adaptation approaches in marine and coastal ecosystems of the North Pacific landscape conservation cooperative region: a compilation of scientific literature, phase 1 draft final report. National Wildlife Federation for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 1 Science Applications Program, 257 pp

  325. Tomascik T, Holmes H (2003) Distribution and abundance of haliotis kamtschatkana in relation to habitat, competitors and predators in the Broken Group Islands, Pacific RIM National Park reserve of Canada. J Shellfish Res 22(3):831–838

    Google Scholar 

  326. Trenberth KE, Caron JM, Stepaniak DP, Worley S (2002) Evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures. J Geophys Res Atmos 107(D7–8). doi:10.1029/2000jd000298

  327. Trudel M, Gillespie G, Cosgrove J, Wing B (2006) Warm water species in British Columbia and Alaska. In: State of the Pacific Ocean 2005. DFO science ocean status report 2006/001, p 53. http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/sci/psarc/OSRs/Ocean_SSR_e.htm

  328. Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Kupfer H, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M (2008) Changing northern hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. J Clim 21(8):1669–1679. doi:10.1175/2007jcli1992.1

    Google Scholar 

  329. UNEP (2007) Global outlook for ice and snow. United Nations Environment Programme, Arendal. UNEP/GRID, Arendal

    Google Scholar 

  330. van Blaricom GR, Ruediger JL, Friedman CS, Woodard DD, Hedrick RP (1993) Discovery of withering syndrome among black abalone Haliotis cracherodii Leach, 1814, populations at San Nicolas Island, California. J Shellfish Res 12(2):185–188

    Google Scholar 

  331. van Vliet MTH, Franssen WHP, Yearsley JR, Ludwig F, Haddeland I, Lettenmaier DP, Kabat P (2013) Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change. Glob Environ Change Hum Policy Dimens 23(2):450–464. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002

    Google Scholar 

  332. Venrick EL, McGowan JA, Cayan DR, Hayward TL (1987) Climate and chlorophyll a: long-term trends in the Central North Pacific Ocean. Science 238(4823):70–72

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  333. Vinagre C, Costa MJ, Cabral HN (2007) Impact of climate and hydrodynamics on sole larval immigration towards the Tagus estuary, Portugal. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 75(4):516–524. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2007.05.035

    Google Scholar 

  334. Walker IJ, Sydneysmith R (2007) Chapter 8: British Columbia In: Lemmen D, FJW, Lacroix J, Bush E (ed) From impacts to adaptation: Canada in a changing climate. Natural Resources Canada, pp 329–386

  335. Wallace SS (1999) Evaluating the effects of three forms of marine reserve on northern abalone populations in British Columbia, Canada. Conserv Biol 13(4):882–887. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.98117.x

    Google Scholar 

  336. Waples RS (1999) Dispelling some myths about hatcheries. Fisheries 24(2):12–21

    Google Scholar 

  337. Ware DM (1991) Climate, predators and prey: behaviour of a linked oscillating system. In: Kawasaki T, Tanada S, Toba Y, Taniguch A (eds) Long-term variability of pelagic fish populations and their environment. Pergamon Press, Tokyo, pp 47–60

    Google Scholar 

  338. Ware DM, Hargreaves NB (1993) Occurrence of Pacific (chub) mackerel off the B.C. coast in 1993. PICES Press 2(1):12–13

    Google Scholar 

  339. Ware DM, Thomson RE (1991) Link between long-term variability in upwelling and fish production in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 48(12):2296–2306. doi:10.1139/f91-270

    Google Scholar 

  340. Ware DM, Thomson RE (2000) Interannual to multidecadal timescale climate variations in the northeast Pacific. J Clim 13(18):3209–3220. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3209:itmtcv>2.0.co;2

    Google Scholar 

  341. Ware DM, Thomson RE (2005) Bottom-up ecosystem trophic dynamics determine fish production in the northeast Pacific. Science 308(5726):1280–1284. doi:10.1126/science.1109049

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  342. Watters GM, Olson RJ, Field JC, Essington TE (2008) Range expansion of the Humboldt squid was not caused by tuna fishing. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105(3):E5 (author reply E6). doi:10.1073/pnas.0710369105

  343. Weishampel JF, Bagley DA, Ehrhart LM (2004) Earlier nesting by loggerhead sea turtles following sea surface warming. Glob Change Biol 10(8):1424–1427. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00817.x

    Google Scholar 

  344. Wespestad VG, Fritz LW, Ingraham WJ, Megrey BA (2000) On relationships between cannibalism, climate variability, physical transport, and recruitment success of Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma). ICES J Mar Sci 57(2):272–278

    Google Scholar 

  345. Whitney FA (2011) Nutrient variability in the mixed layer of the subarctic Pacific Ocean, 1987–2010. J Oceanogr 67(4):481–492. doi:10.1007/s10872-011-0051-2

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  346. Whitney FA, Bograd SJ, Ono T (2013) Nutrient enrichment of the subarctic Pacific Ocean pycnocline. Geophys Res Lett 40:2200–2205. doi:10.1002/grl.50439

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  347. Whitney FA, Wong CS, Boyd PW (1998) Interannual variability in nitrate supply to surface waters of the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 170:15–23. doi:10.3354/meps170015

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  348. Whitney FA, Crawford WR, Harrison P (2005) Physical processes that enhance nutrient transport and primary productivity in the coastal and open ocean of the subarctic NE Pacific. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 52(5–6):681–706. doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2004.12.023

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  349. Whitney FA, Freeland HJ, Robert M (2007) Persistently declining oxygen levels in the interior waters of the eastern subarctic Pacific. Prog Oceanogr 75(2):179–199. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2007.08.007

    Google Scholar 

  350. Widdicombe S, Spicer JI (2008) Predicting the impact of ocean acidification on benthic biodiversity: what can animal physiology tell us? J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 366(1–2):187–197

    Google Scholar 

  351. Wilderbuer TK, Hollowed AB, Ingraham WJ, Spencer PD, Conners ME, Bond NA, Walters GE (2002) Flatfish recruitment response to decadal climatic variability and ocean conditions in the eastern Bering Sea. Prog Oceanogr 55(1–2):235–247

    Google Scholar 

  352. Williams R, Okey TA, Wallace SS, Gallucci VF (2010) Shark aggregation in coastal waters of British Columbia. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 414:249–256. doi:10.3354/meps08718

    Google Scholar 

  353. Wilson EO (1992) The diversity of life. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA

    Google Scholar 

  354. Wilson EO (2002) The future of life, 1st edn. Alfred A. Knopf, New York

    Google Scholar 

  355. Wing BL (2006) Unusual observations of fish and invertebrates from the Gulf of Alaska, 2004–2005. PICES Press 14(2):26–28

    Google Scholar 

  356. Wong CS, Whitney FA, Matear RJ, Iseki K (1998) Enhancement of new production in the northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean during negative North Pacific index events. Limnol Oceanogr 43(7):1418–1426

    Google Scholar 

  357. Wootton JT, Pfister CA, Forester JD (2008) Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105(48):18848–18853

    CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  358. Wright CA, Dallimore A, Thomson RE, Patterson RT, Ware DM (2005) Late Holocene paleofish populations in Effingham Inlet, British Columbia, Canada. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 224(4):367–384. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.03.041

    Google Scholar 

  359. Wu H, Kimball JS, Elsner MM, Mantua N, Adler RF, Stanford J (2012) Projected climate change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Pacific Northwest rivers. Water Resour Res 48. doi:10.1029/2012wr012082

  360. Yntema CL, Mrosovsky N (1982) Critical periods and pivotal temperatures for sexual-differentiation in loggerhead sea turtles. Can J Zool 60(5):1012–1016. doi:10.1139/z82-141

    Google Scholar 

  361. Yunker MB, Cretney J (1995) Chlorinated dioxin trends between 1987 and 1993 for samples of crab hepatopancreas from pulp and paper mill and harbour sites in British Columbia. Canadian technical report of fisheries and aquatic sciences. 2082. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 138 p

  362. Zabel RW, Scheuerell MD, McClure MM, Williams JG (2006) The interplay between climate variability and density dependence in the population viability of Chinook salmon. Conserv Biol 20(1):190–200

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  363. Zacherl D, Gaines SD, Lonhart SI (2003) The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights from the northward range extension of the marine snail, Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852). J Biogeogr 30(6):913–924. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2699.2003.00899.x

    Google Scholar 

  364. Zhang Z, Campbell A, Lessard J (2007) Modeling northern abalone, Haliotis kamtschatkana, population stock and recruitment in British Columbia. J Shellfish Res 26(4):1099–1107. doi:10.2983/0730-8000(2007)26[1099:MNAHKP]2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  365. Zheng J, Kruise GH (2006) Recruitment variation of eastern Bering Sea crabs: climate forcing or top-down effects? Prog Oceanogr 68:184–204

    Google Scholar 

  366. Zwolinski JP, Demer DA, Byers KA, Cutter GR, Renfree JS, Sessions TS, Macewicz BJ (2012) Distributions and abundances of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and other pelagic fishes in the California Current Ecosystem during spring 2006, 2008, and 2010, estimated from acoustic-trawl surveys. Fish Bull 110(1):110–122

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge Alvaro Montenegro for his initial contributions to this work as a co-author on Okey et al. (2012). We acknowledge and thank the many institutions and individuals including Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Environment Canada (Canadian Wildlife Services), Natural Resources Canada (Geological Survey of Canada), Parks Canada, the B.C. Ministry of Environment, Royal Roads University, Simon Fraser University, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Victoria, Philip Hill, Ben Kangasniemi, Dave Preikshot, Vaughn Barrie, Doug Biffard, Robin Brown, Frank Whitney, Mark Zacharias, Ken Morgan, Brian Bawtinheimer, Chris Harley, Marc Trudel, Kim Hyatt, Ian Perry, Bill Crawford, Robin Sydneysmith, Richard Carson, Audrey Dallimore, Colin Campbell, Isabel Côte, Caihong Fu, John Holmes, Cliff Robinson, Charlie Short, Kelly Francis, Sean Darling, Brian Hunt, and Desiree Tommasi. Special thanks to Robin Brown, Frank Whitney, Chris Harley, Doug Biffard, John Davis, Bill Crawford, Ian Perry, Barry Smit, Ric Brodeur, and Louise Blight for their valuable feedback, and to formal reviews by Ian Perry and Frank Whitney which improved this manuscript. SJ and Michele Paterson facilitated the initiation of the project that led to this work, and HMA coordinated later phases. We thank and acknowledge the Pew Environment Group, Pew Charitable Trusts for supporting the contribution of TAO through the Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation, and the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions for supporting SJ. This work emerged from a project executed by WWF-Canada and CPAWS-BC with funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Thomas A. Okey.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Okey, T.A., Alidina, H.M., Lo, V. et al. Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge. Rev Fish Biol Fisheries 24, 519–559 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1

Download citation

Keywords

  • Climate change impacts
  • Acidification
  • Deoxygenation
  • Climate adaptation
  • Cumulative impacts
  • Global marine hotspots