When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries

  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez
  • Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez
  • Jorge Hirs-Garzón
  • Andrés Pinchao-Rosero
Article

Abstract

We study the existence and international transmission of housing market bubbles, using quarterly information of twenty OECD countries for the period comprised between 1970 and 2015. We find that housing bubbles are present in all the countries included in our sample. Multiple bubbles are found in all but two of those countries. We find five episodes of transmission. All of them had origin in the US housing bubble preceding the subprime crisis. Most transmissions were to European countries. Notably, the Spanish housing bubble was not a direct consequence of the US housing bubble. Its origin must be found in other causes.

Keywords

Housing bubbles International transmission of bubbles Recursive right-tailed unit root tests OECD countries 

JEL Classification

G01 G12 C22 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. We want to thank C.F. Sirmans, Caterina Di Tommaso, Nezih Guner, Wilmer Ferrer, Jair Ojeda, Mauricio Villamizar, conference participants at the 25th MBF International Rome Conference on Money, Banking and Finance, and anonymous referees for useful comments and discussions on earlier versions of this paper.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez
    • 1
  • Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez
    • 1
  • Jorge Hirs-Garzón
    • 2
  • Andrés Pinchao-Rosero
    • 3
  1. 1.Central Bank of ColombiaBogotáColombia
  2. 2.Universidad del ValleCaliColombia
  3. 3.FedesarrolloBogotáColombia

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