Abstract
Thriving to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), countries are destined to reduce preventable deaths of children under the age of five to at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. The literature is deficient in providing a piece of fresh evidence on the predictors of under-five mortality in developing countries. Accordingly, this study aims to provide a framework for the strategy to meet the development agenda of minimizing the under-five mortality by 2030 wherein Punjab is selected as a case to study. In Punjab (Pakistan), the under-five mortality rate has reduced from 112 to 69 deaths per 1000 live births from 2003 to 2018. However, the pace of improvement is slow to meet the SDG 3.2. There is hardly any study for Punjab that offers evidence on the predictors of under-five mortality. Therefore, this study deeply looks into the predictors of under-five mortality rate for efficient and targeted development practices, using the binomial logistic regression model. Mother’s age at childbirth, household’s wealth status, premature birth, skilled birth attendant, mother’s education, improved sanitation, stunting, access to clean drinking water, and numbers of children of a mother is found to be significant predictors of under-five mortality in Punjab. As a short-term initiative, it is suggested that an awareness campaign should be launched to educate the mothers to use available health structures whereas, in the long run, there is a need to develop a holistic strategy to deal with the multiple development goals.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adeolu, M., Akpa, O., Adeolu, A., Aladeniyi, I.: Environmental and socioeconomic determinants of child mortality: evidence from the 2013 Nigerian demographic health survey. Am. J. Public Health 4(4), 134–141 (2016)
Amouzou, A., Habi, O., Bensaïd, K., Niger Countdown Case Study Working Group: Reduction in child mortality in Niger: a Countdown to 2015 country case study. Lancet 380(9848), 1169–1178 (2012)
Anderson, J.A.: Regression and ordered categorical variables. J. Roy. Stat. Soc.: Ser. B (methodol.) 46(1), 1–22 (1984)
Armstrong, B.G., Sloan, M.: Ordinal regression models for epidemiologic data. Am. J. Epidemiol. 129(1), 191–204 (1989)
Azuike, E.C., Onyemachi, P.E.N., Amah, C.C., Okafor, K.C., Anene, J.O.: Determinants of under-five mortality in South-Eastern Nigeria. J Commun. Med. Public Health Care 6, 049 (2019)
Ball, S. J., Pereira, G., Jacoby, P., De Klerk, N., & Stanley, F. J. (2014). Re-evaluation of link between interpregnancy interval and adverse birth outcomes: retrospective cohort study matching two intervals per mother. Bmj, 349
Barham, T.: A healthier start: The effect of conditional cash transfers on neonatal and infant mortality in rural Mexico. J. Dev. Econ. 94(1), 74–85 (2011)
Bedada, D.: Determinant of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. Am. J. Stat. Prob. 2(2), 12–18 (2017)
Bloss, E., Wainaina, F., Bailey, R.C.: Prevalence and predictors of underweight, stunting, and wasting among children aged 5 and under in western Kenya. J. Trop. Pediatr. 50(5), 260–270 (2004)
Chalasani, S., Rutstein, S.: Household wealth and child health in India. Popul. Stud. 68(1), 15–41 (2014)
Class, Q.A., Rickert, M.E., Oberg, A.S., Sujan, A.C., Almqvist, C., Larsson, H., D’Onofrio, B.M.: Within-family analysis of interpregnancy interval and adverse birth outcomes. Obstet. Gynecol. 130(6), 1304–1311 (2017)
Das Gupta, M.: Death clustering, mothers’ education and the determinants of child mortality in rural Punjab India. Populat. Stud. 44(3), 489–505 (1990)
El-Habil, A.M.: An application on multinomial logistic regression model. Pak. J. Stat. Oper. Res. 8, 271–291 (2012)
Forste, R.: The effects of breastfeeding and birth spacing on infant and child mortality in Bolivia. Popul. Stud. 48(3), 497–511 (1994)
Hanley, G.E., Hutcheon, J.A., Kinniburgh, B.A., Lee, L.: Interpregnancy interval and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Obstet. Gynecol. 129(3), 408–415 (2017)
Harrell, F.E.: Binary logistic regression. In Regression modeling strategies, pp. 219–274. Springer, Cham (2015)
Huq, M.N., Tasnim, T.: Maternal education and child healthcare in Bangladesh. Matern. Child Health J. 12(1), 43–51 (2008)
Kayode, G.A., Adekanmbi, V.T., Uthman, O.A.: Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria demographic and health survey. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 12(1), 10 (2012)
Kanmiki, E. W., Bawah, A. A., Agorinya, I., Achana, F. S., Awoonor-Williams, J. K., Oduro, A. R., Akazili, J.: Socio-economic and demographic determinants of under-five mortality in rural northern Ghana. BMC international health and human rights, 14(1), 1–10 (2014)
Kembo, J., Van Ginneken, J.K.: Determinants of infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe: results of multivariate hazard analysis. Demogr. Res. 21, 367–384 (2009)
Khatun, F., Rasheed, S., Moran, A.C., Alam, A.M., Shomik, M.S., Sultana, M., Bhuiya, A.: Causes of neonatal and maternal deaths in Dhaka slums: implications for service delivery. BMC Public Health 12(1), 84 (2012)
King, J. E. (2008). Binary logistic regression. Best practices in quantitative methods, 358–384.
Kravdal, Ø. Y. S. T. E. I. N. (2003). Child mortality in India: individual and community effects of women’s education and autonomy. East-West Center Publications on Population and Health: working papers. Available at: www.eastwestcenter.org/pop/misc/wp112.pdf.
Lantz, P., Partin, M., Palloni, A.: Using retrospective surveys for estimating the effects of breastfeeding and childspacing on infant and child mortality. Popul. Stud. 46(1), 121–139 (1992)
Lee, Y.: Communications procedure under the convention on the rights of the child: 3rd optional protocol. Int. J. Children’s Rights 18(4), 567–583 (2010)
Madise, N.J., Diamond, I.: Determinants of infant mortality in Malawi: an analysis to control for death clustering within families. J. Biosoc. Sci. 27(1), 95–106 (1995)
Manda, S. O. M. (1998). Unobserved family and community effects on infant mortality in Malawi. Genus, 143–164.
Manda, S.O.: Birth intervals, breastfeeding and determinants of childhood mortality in Malawi. Soc. Sci. Med. 48(3), 301–312 (1999)
Maniruzzaman, M., Suri, H. S., Kumar, N., Abedin, M. M., Rahman, M. J., El-Baz, A., Suri, J. S. (2018). Risk factors of neonatal mortality and child mortality in Bangladesh. J. Global Health, 8(1).
Maroof, D.A.: Binary logistic regression. In Statistical methods in neuropsychology, pp. 67–75. Springer, Boston, MA (2012)
McCullagh, P.: Regression models for ordinal data. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (methodol.) 42(2), 109–127 (1980)
McGuire, J.W.: Basic health care provision and under-5 mortality: a cross-national study of developing countries. World Dev. 34(3), 405–425 (2006)
Mosley, W.H., Chen, L.C.: An analytical framework for the study of child survival in developing countries. Popul. Dev. Rev. 10, 25–45 (1984)
Parashar, S.: Moving beyond the mother-child dyad: women’s education, child immunization, and the importance of context in rural India. Soc. Sci. Med. 61(5), 989–1000 (2005)
Pebley, A.R., Stupp, P.W.: Reproductive patterns and child mortality in Guatemala. Demography 24(1), 43–60 (1987)
Rajaratnam, J.K., Tran, L.N., Lopez, A.D., Murray, C.J.: Measuring under-five mortality: validation of new low-cost methods. PLoS Med 7(4), 1000253 (2010)
Rasella, D., Aquino, R., Santos, C.A., Paes-Sousa, R., Barreto, M.L.: Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on childhood mortality: a nationwide analysis of Brazilian municipalities. The Lancet 382(9886), 57–64 (2013)
Rayhan, M.I., Khan, M.S.H.: Factors causing malnutrition among under five children in Bangladesh. Pak J Nutr 5(6), 558–562 (2006)
Roy, S., Haque, M.A.: Effect of antenatal care and social well-being on early neonatal mortality in Bangladesh. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 18(1), 485 (2018)
Rutstein, S.O.: Effects of preceding birth intervals on neonatal, infant and under-five years mortality and nutritional status in developing countries: evidence from the demographic and health surveys. Int. J. Gynecol. Obstet. 89, S7–S24 (2005)
Scott, S.C., Goldberg, M.S., Mayo, N.E.: Statistical assessment of ordinal outcomes in comparative studies. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 50(1), 45–55 (1997)
Sokadjo, Y. M., Atchadé, M. N., Kossou, H. D.: Carbon dioxide emissions from transport and anemia influence on under-five mortality in Benin. Environ. Sci and Pollut. Res. 27(32), 40277–40285 (2020)
Shei, A.: Brazil’s conditional cash transfer program associated with declines in infant mortality rates. Health Aff. 32(7), 1274–1281 (2013)
Shei, A., Costa, F., Reis, M.G., Ko, A.I.: The impact of Brazil’s Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program on children’s health care utilization and health outcomes. BMC Int. Health Hum. Rights 14(1), 1–9 (2014)
Starkweather, J., & Moske, A. K. (2011). Multinomial logistic regression.
Tranmer, M., & Elliot, M. (2008). Binary logistic regression. Cathie Marsh for census and survey research, paper, 20.
Watkins, K. (2016). The State of the World's Children 2016: A Fair Chance for Every Child. UNICEF. 3 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
It is declared that neither of the author have any conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nadeem, M., Adil, S., Hunnain, F. et al. Predictive model of under-five mortality in developing countries: evidence from multiple indicators cluster survey Punjab. Qual Quant 56, 1463–1480 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-021-01185-9
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-021-01185-9