Abstract
The relationship between urbanization and technological progress on environment, mainly CO2 emissions, has been extensively studied in the last decades; however, little effort has been made to understand such a relationships in developing countries. This work focuses on understanding the effects of urbanization and some technological factors on the Colombian electricity consumption. This topic is addressed from several environmental impact dimensions rather than solely focusing on CO2 emissions. An extended STIRPAT model, in combination with LCA approaches, was applied in a balanced panel dataset of 27 states, over the period of 2003 to 2018. Our findings suggest that urbanization is the major driver of electricity consumption and climate change in Colombia. Our results address the lack of information about this topic in developing countries and also, they contribute to understand the main features of emissions in Colombia and the key driving forces behind their environmental impacts. Finally and given the current trends on population and urban growth, we conclude with some recommendations aimed to relevant stakeholders.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdallh, A.A., Abugamos, H.: A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanisation-carbon emissions nexus for the MENA countries. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 78, 1350–1356 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.006
Arvesen, A., Hertwich, E.G.: Assessing the life cycle environmental impacts of wind power: a review of present knowledge and research needs. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 16(8), 5994–6006 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.06.023
Chertow, M.R.: The IPAT equation and its variants and environmental impact. J. Ind. Ecol. 4(4), 13–29 (2000)
Commoner, B.: Bulletin dialogue on ‘the closing circle’: response. Bull. Atom. Sci. 28(5), 42–56 (1972)
DANE: Encuesta Nacional de Hogares, Bogota (2018a). Retrieved from https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/demografia-y-poblacion/proyecciones-de-poblacion
DANE: Producto Interno bruto (PIB) Históricos (2018b). Retrieved August 22, 2018, from https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/cuentas-nacionales/cuentas-nacionales-trimestrales/historicos-producto-interno-bruto-pib#base-2005
Dietz, T., Rosa, E.A.: Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Hum. Ecol. Rev. 1(Weeh 1986), 277–300 (1994)
Dietz, T., Rosa, E.A.: Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 94, 175–179 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.1.175
Du, D.: The causal relationship between land urbanization quality and economic growth: evidence from capital cities. Qual. Quant. (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-016-0417-z
Ecoinvent. (2019). Impact factors. Retrieved May 22, 2019, from https://www.ecoinvent.org/
Effiong, E.L.: On the urbanization-pollution nexus in Africa: a semiparametric analysis. Qual. Quant. 52(1), 445–456 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0477-8
Ehrlich, P.R., Holdren, J.P.: Impact of population growth. Science 171(3977), 1212–1217 (1971)
Ehrlich, P.R., Holdren, J.P.: A bulletin dialogue on the ‘closing circle’ critique: one-dimensional ecology. Bull. Atom. Sci. 28(5), 18–27 (1972)
European Commission: LICD Method. Retrieved November 14, 2019, from https://eplca.jrc.ec.europa.eu/LCDN/developerILCDDataFormat.xhtml (2014)
Font Vivanco, D., Van Der Voet, E.: The remarkable environmental rebound effect of electric cars: a microeconomic approach. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48, 12063–12072 (2014)
ISO.: ISO 14.040 Environmental Management—Life Cycle Assessment—Principles and Framework. Switzerland: International Organization for Standardization (2006)
Irfan, M., Shaw, K.: Modeling the effects of energy consumption and urbanization on environmental pollution in South Asian countries: a nonparametric panel approach. Qual. Quant. (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0294-x
Jia, J., Deng, H., Duan, J., Zhao, J.: Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method—a case study in Henan Province, China. Ecol. Econ. 68(11), 2818–2824 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.05.012
Kang, Y.Q., Zhao, T., Wu, P.: Impacts of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: a spatial panel data technique. Nat. Hazards 81(1), 405–421 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2087-x
Li, K., Lin, B.: Impacts of urbanization and industrialization on energy consumption/CO2 emissions: does the level of development matter? Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 52, 1107–1122 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.185
Li, H., Mu, H., Zhang, M., Li, N.: Analysis on influence factors of China’s CO2 emissions based on Path-STIRPAT model. Energy Policy 39(11), 6906–6911 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.056
Li, B., Liu, X., Li, Z.: Using the STIRPAT model to explore the factors driving regional CO2 emissions: a case of Tianjin, China. Nat. Hazards 76(3), 1667–1685 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1574-9
Liddle, B.: Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses. Popul. Environ. 35(3), 286–304 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-013-0198-4
Liddle, B., Lung, S.: Age-structure, urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption-related environmental impacts. Popul. Environ. 31(5), 317–343 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-010-0101-5
Lin, S., Zhao, D., Marinova, D.: Analysis of the environmental impact of China based on STIRPAT model. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 29(6), 341–347 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2009.01.009
Lin, B., Omoju, O.E., Nwakeze, N.M., Okonkwo, J.U., Megbowon, E.T.: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis a sound basis for environmental policy in Africa? J. Clean. Prod. 133, 712–724 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.05.173
Lin, S., Wang, S., Marinova, D., Zhao, D., Hong, J.: Impacts of urbanization and real economic development on CO2 emissions in non-high income countries: empirical research based on the extended STIRPAT model. J. Clean. Prod. (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.08.107
Liu, Y., Xiao, H., Zikhali, P., Lv, Y.: Carbon emissions in china: a spatial econometric analysis at the regional level. Sustainability 6(9), 6005–6023 (2014). https://doi.org/10.3390/su6096005
Long, X., Ji, X., Ulgiati, S.: Is urbanization eco-friendly? An energy and land use cross-country analysis. Energy Policy 2006, 387–396 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.024
Madu, I.A.: The impacts of anthropogenic factors on the environment in Nigeria. J. Environ. Manag. 90(3), 1422–1426 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.08.009
Poumanyvong, P., Kaneko, S.: Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecol. Econ. 70(2), 434–444 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.029
Roca, J.: The IPAT formula and its limitations. Ecol. Econ. 42, 1–2 (2002)
Rosa, E.A., Dietz, T.: Climate change and society. Speculation, construction and scientific investigation. Int. Sociol. 13(4), 421–455 (1998)
Salim, R.A., Shafiei, S.: Urbanization and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in OECD countries: an empirical analysis. Econ. Model. 38, 581–591 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.008
Shafiei, S., Salim, R.A.: Non-renewable and renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. Energy Policy 66, 547–556 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.064
Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., Muzaffar, A.T., Ahmed, K., Ali Jabran, M.: How urbanization affects CO2 emissions in Malaysia? The application of STIRPAT model. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 57, 83–93 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.096
Sheng, P., Guo, X.: The long-run and short-run impacts of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions. Econ. Model. 53, 208–215 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.006
SUI, S. de S. P. D.: Servicios publicos. Energia (2018). Retrieved August 22, 2018, from https://www.sui.gov.co/web/energia
Sun, L., Deng, Y., Xin, H., Xing, T., Tan, Z.F.: Multiple factors path-STIRPAT analysis model of Beijing CO2 emission. Appl. Mech. Mater. 389, 166–171 (2013). https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.389.166
Tang, W., Zhong, X., Liu, S.: Analysis of major driving forces of ecological footprint based on the STRIPAT model and RR method: a case of Sichuan Province, Southwest China. J. Mt. Sci. 8(4), 611–618 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-011-1021-2
Turconi, R., Boldrin, A., Astrup, T.: Life cycle assessment (LCA) of electricity generation technologies: overview, comparability and limitations. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 28, 555–565 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.08.013
UPME: BALANCE ENERGETICO COLOMBIANO - BECO (2019a). Retrieved February 6, 2019, from https://www1.upme.gov.co/InformacionCifras/Paginas/BalanceEnergetico.aspx
UPME: Balance Energetico Colombiano BECO (2019b). Retrieved May 6, 2019, from https://www1.upme.gov.co/InformacionCifras/Paginas/BalanceEnergetico.aspx
Velez-Henao, J.A., Mazo-Garcia, C.M.: Marginal technology based on consequential life cycle assessment. The case of Colombia. Revista Facultad de Ingenieria 90, 51–61 (2019). https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.n90a07
Vélez-Henao, J., Font, D., Hernández-riveros, J.: Technological change and the rebound effect in the STIRPAT model: a critical view. Energy Policy 129, 1372–1381 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.044
Wang, M., Liu, J., Wang, J., Zhao, G.: Ecological footprint and major driving forces in West Jilin Province, Northeast China. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 20(5), 434–441 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-010-0417-1
Wang, M., Che, Y., Yang, K., Wang, M., Xiong, L., Huang, Y.: A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: the case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China. Energy Policy 39(11), 6981–6990 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.041
Wang, P., Wu, W., Zhu, B., Wei, Y.: Examining the impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model in Guangdong Province, China. Appl. Energy 106(2013), 65–71 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.01.036
Wang, Y., Zhang, X., Kubota, J., Zhu, X., Lu, G.: A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 48, 704–709 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.046
Wei, T.: What STIRPAT tells about effects of population and affluence on the environment? Ecol. Econ. 72, 70–74 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.10.015
World Bank: Urban Population (2019). Retrieved July 1, 2019, from https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=CO
Yang, Y., Zhao, T., Wang, Y., Shi, Z.: Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 55, 45–53 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2015.06.007
York, R.: Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations, 1960–2025. Soc. Sci. Res. 36(3), 855–872 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2006.06.007
Zhang, Q.J., Zhu, B.Z., Wu, J., Lu, X., Xu, H., Nakagoshi, N.: The assessment and reduction approaches of the carbon emission in Jiangmen, China. Adv. Mater. Res. 734–737, 1852–1860 (2013). https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.734-737.1852
Zheng, H., Hu, J., Guan, R., Wang, S.: Examining determinants of CO2 emissions in 73 cities in China. Sustainability 8(12), 1296 (2016). https://doi.org/10.3390/su8121296
Zhou, Y., Liu, Y., Wu, W., Li, Y.: Effects of rural–urban development transformation on energy consumption and CO2 emissions: a regional analysis in China. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 52, 863–875 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.158
Acknowledgements
The participation of author was partially sponsored by the (Colombian) Administrative Department of Science, Technology and Innovation (COLCIENCIAS), through the Call for Training of National Doctorates—727, 2015. I am grateful to: Catalina Alvarez for the English proofreading
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The author declares that there is not conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Vélez-Henao, JA. Does urbanization boost environmental impacts in Colombia? An extended STIRPAT–LCA approach. Qual Quant 54, 851–866 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00961-y
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00961-y