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Fear in the West: a sentiment analysis using a computer-readable “Fear Index”

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Abstract

We tune in on fear to make it visible and detect its drifts. We collect verbal signals of coming fear burrowed in the crackles of political and other speeches by leading figures: Familiar words people use to express fear. From the EmoLex database (Mohammad and Turney in Comput Intel 29(3):436–465, 2013), we develop a computer-readable “Fear Index” to chase fear in the West. We aim a view from above to see how fear has changed, or hasn’t. We first look how valid is the “Fear Index” on texts (fearful novels and historical documents) expected to display specific profiles of fear. Then trace the trend fear follows in speeches of European leaders. The “Fear Index” decreases in the speeches and documents of European political and economic spheres (President Donald Tusk—European Council—, President Mario Draghi—European Central Bank—, and the Global Trade Alert agency). The “Fear Index” spirals upwards among humanitarian leaders (Pope Francis, the Archbishop Justin Welby, and the International Committee of the Red Cross). We record no significant change in the trend of the “Fear Index” in the speeches of President Vladimir Putin. Humanitarian and political leaders changing in counterpoint prompt questions about empathy, or lack of that, in a now bipolar West.

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Notes

  1. In appreciation to Maria and Dean McKenzie (September 2017) for signaling the Magritte’s 1942 painting “The Companions of Fear” in the Brussels Museum of Modern Art (https://theartstack.com/artist/rene-magritte/the-companions-of-fear).

  2. GNP, car registrations, balance of trade, bankruptcies, unemployment, and suicides are among indicators showing highest correlations with the European “Threat Index”.

  3. Reference to Nance (2012) interviewing Don DeLillo for the Chicago Tribune: “I think my work is influenced by the fact that we're living in dangerous times”. Nance 2012). http://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/books/ct-prj-1014-don-delillo-20121012-story.html. https://perma.cc/VD24-ZRC7. Accessed 18 November 2017.

  4. Friedman’s (2009) “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century” repeatedly makes fear connect with conflicts to come. But connecting facts does not create a logical relation as one needs to distinguish the core from the part. The closer you come to the center of things, the more difficult to explain them.

  5. “No world without words” (Goodman 1978, p. 6). But also “to stress all syllables is to stress none, so to take all classes as relevant kinds is to take none as such” (ditto, p. 11).

  6. The authors of EmoLex are happy to hear about uses made of their lexicon (see “Terms of use” in http://saifmohammad.com/WebPages/NRC-Emotion-Lexicon.htm).

  7. The Dutch tulipmania (1630 s) (https://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes2.asp) that saw people sell their belongings for tulip bulbs … until the market crashed and sellers panicked (Pavord 1999). For recent examples, consider market bubbles, shadow banking, abyssal debts of nations, Lehman Brothers, subprimes, or “a tweet too much”.

  8. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov: “The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown and, in many cases, have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness. (…) The focus of applied methods of conflict has altered in the direction of the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian and other nonmilitary measures”. Gerasimov, V.: Tsennost Nauki v Predvidenniye [The value of science in prediction] Voenno-promyshlenni Kurier, 2013 February. (Translation at https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-non-linear-war/ by Rob Coalson).

  9. For example: United States Government Printing Office. “Events leading up to World War II. Chronological history of certain major international events leading up to and during World War II with the ostensible reasons advanced for their occurrence. 1931-1944”. Washington: United States Government Printing Office (1944), 373 pages, www.ibiblio.org/pha/events/index.html.

  10. Norwegian far-right terrorist responsible for the 2011 Utøya attack that killed 69 people.

  11. Speeches only, excluding edicts, homilies, letters, and other verbal data.

  12. Speeches only, excluding sermons, articles, and books.

  13. Thanks to Yves Bestgen (May 31, 2018) for having picked up the typical ups and downs of the “Fear Index” in Shelley’s Frankenstein.

  14. https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%85&year_start=1800&year_end=2000&corpus=12&smoothing=3&share=&direct_url=t1%3B%2C%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%85%3B%2Cc0.

  15. The Google Books Ngram viewer (https://books.google.com/ngrams) displays mounting frequencies of usage for Plutchik’s emotions (joy, sadness, anger, fear, disgust, surprise, trust, anticipation).

  16. http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/instruments/STANDARD/yearFrom/1974/surveyKy/2142

  17. We borrow the distinction between truth as historical fact and truth as something that makes sense, as well as Goethe’s quotation, from Spence’s (1982, p. 164) and Loch’s (1977, p. 221) on creative interpretation and narrative truth.

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Acknowledgements

This study did not depend on any private or public Grant. We report no conflict of interest relevant to this research. Thanks to Yves Bestgen (Department of Psychology, Université catholique de Louvain) from his opportune comments on the manuscript. Special mention to Dr. Saif M. Mohammad and Dr. Peter D. Turney (Ottawa, National Research Council Canada) for the fortunate EmoLex database available for noncommercial use. Normand Péladeau (Provalis Research, Montreal, CA; https://provalisresearch.com/) related and suggested EmoLex and is associated to the present Fear Index project. Also to mention are generous exchanges with Dean McKenzie (Epworth HealthCare, Monash U., Melbourne). Two reviewers commented usefully on the first version of this paper. These persons and organizations did not play any part in funding, planning or designing this study.

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  1. Emeritus, Institute of Psychological Sciences, Université catholique de Louvain, Place du Cardinal Mercier 10, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

    Robert Hogenraad

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Appendices

Appendix 1: Corpus of validation

Appendix 2: Corpus: history of now

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Hogenraad, R. Fear in the West: a sentiment analysis using a computer-readable “Fear Index”. Qual Quant 53, 1239–1261 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0813-7

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