Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Pre and post effects of Brexit polling on United Kingdom economy: an econometrics analysis of transactional change

  • Published:
Quality & Quantity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The prospective through which United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) voted in a referendum to Leave the European Union is known as Brexit. In this research, we discuss the effects of Brexit on United Kingdom economy and to accomplish this task, we have analysed the Pre-Brexit Polling and Post-Brexit Polling economic data and indicators. Different econometric tests are used for analysis and coefficient’s estimation. Three key economic variables are used: Exchange Rate (US dollar to GB Pound), Gold Price and Oil Price. These key variables are famous due to their volatile nature and thus play an important role in the economic growth. The analyses define distinguish effect in coefficients, elements, shocks and attributes on United Kingdom economy by these three key variables in the time frame of Pre and Post Brexit polling.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A.: Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49(4), 1057–1072 (1981)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engle, R.F., Lee, G.J.: A long run and short run component model of stock return volatility. In: Engle, R.F., White, H. (eds.) Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honour of Clive W. J. Granger, pp. 475–497. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  • Fanchon, P., Wendel, J.: Estimating VAR models under non-stationarity and cointegration: alternative approaches for forecasting cattle prices. Appl. Econ. 24, 207–217 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Granger, C.W.J.: Investigating causal relations by econometric methods and cross spectral methods. Econometrica 34, 424–438 (1969)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hantrais, L. (2017). The Social Dimension in EU and UK Policy Development: Shaping the Post-Brexit Legacy. Working Paper CIS/2017/04, Centre for International Studies London School of Economics

  • Johansen, S.: Statistical analysis of cointegrated vectors. J. Econ. Dyn. Control 12(213), 231–254 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen, S., Juselius, K.: Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 52(2), 169–210 (1990)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuper, G., van Soest, D.: Does oil price uncertainty affect energy use? Energy J. 27, 55–78 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., Shin, Y.: Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. J. Econ. 54, 159–78 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ng, H., Lam, K.P.: How does the sample size affect GARCH models? In: Proceedings of the Joint Conference on Information Sciences (2006)

  • Phillips, P.C.B., Perron, P.: Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75(2), 335–346 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker, N.: Brexit timeline: events leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union. Briefing Paper Number 07960, House of Commons Library (2017)

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, University of York, York, UK

    Muhammad Jawad

  2. Department of Mathematics, University of York, York, UK

    Munazza Naz

Authors
  1. Muhammad Jawad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Munazza Naz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Muhammad Jawad.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jawad, M., Naz, M. Pre and post effects of Brexit polling on United Kingdom economy: an econometrics analysis of transactional change. Qual Quant 53, 247–267 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0746-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0746-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation