Quality & Quantity

, Volume 49, Issue 5, pp 2097–2106 | Cite as

The sustainability of tourism income on economic growth: does education matter?

  • Alper AslanEmail author


This article examines the impact of detailed tourism expenditure on the long-run economic growth by employing autoregressive distributed lag approach and Hatemi causality test to investigate causality for 2005:I to 2012:1 in Turkey. New data set tourism detailed expenditure—is employed that has not previously been used for the causality of tourism expenditure on economic growth. The results of the bounds test show that there is a sustainable long-run relationship between each of the tourism expenditure and economic growth. The results of the causality test, on the other hand, show that there is bidirectional causality between university graduate tourists’ expenditure and economic growth and a causal flow from high school tourism expenditure to GDP growth which is verified growth-led tourism hypothesis. Results reveal that university and post graduate degree with tourists’ expenditure is more successful on explaining the long-run relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth in Turkey. This result implies a policy that, although Turkey need to focus more on tourism development for all level of education to reach higher real income levels; policy makers should concentrate on attracting the attention of university graduate tourist to gain more from tourism industry.


Tourism expenditure GDP growth Educational level  Turkey 


  1. Arslanturk, Y., Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z.A.: Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy. Econ. Model. 28(2011), 664–671 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Aslan, A.: Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz. Erciyes Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi 24, 1–11 (2008)Google Scholar
  3. Balaguer, L., Cantavella-Jorda, M.: Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Appl. Econ. 34, 877–884 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., Evans, J.M.: Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 37, 149–163 (1975)Google Scholar
  5. Chien-Chiang, Lee, Chun-Ping, Chang: Tourism development and economic growth: a closer look at panels. Tour. Manag. 29, 180–192 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Demiroz, D.M., Ongan, S.: The contribution of tourism to the long run Turkish economic growth. Ekonomický Časopis 9, 880–894 (2005)Google Scholar
  7. Gunduz, L., Hatemi, J.A.: Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Appl. Econ. Lett. 12, 499–504 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Halicioglu, F.: An econometric analysis of the aggregate outbound tourism demand of Turkey. Tour. Econ. 16(1), 83–97 (2010). March 2010 (15)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Hannan, E.J., Quinn, B.G.: The determination of the order of an autoregression. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 41, 190–195 (1979)Google Scholar
  10. Hatemi, J.A.: A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models. Appl. Econ. Lett. 10, 135–137 (2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hatemi, J.A.: Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics (2012). doi: 10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
  12. Hazari, B.R., Ng, A.: An analysis of tourists’ consumption of non-traded goods and services on the welfare of the domestic consumers. Int. Rev. Econ. Financ. 2, 43–58 (1993)Google Scholar
  13. Husein, Jamal, Kara, S.Murat: Research note: re-examining the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey. Tour. Econ. 17(4), 917–924 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Katircioglu, S.T.: Revising the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tour. Manag. 30, 17–20 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Kumar, R.R.: Exploring the nexus between tourism, remittances and growth in Kenya. Qual. Quant. 48(3), 1573–1588 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Lanquar, R.: Tourism in the Mediterranean: scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1 (2013)Google Scholar
  17. Leybourne, S.J., Kim, T., Newbold, P.: Examination of some more powerful modifications of the Dickey–Fuller test. J. Time Ser. Anal. 26, 355–369 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Ozturk, I., Acaravci, A.: On the causality between tourism growth and economic growth: empirical evidence from Turkey. Transylv. Rev. Adm. Sci. 25E(2009), 73–81 (2009)Google Scholar
  19. Park, H.J., Fuller, W.A.: Alternative estimators and unit root tests for the autoregressive process. J. Time Ser. Anal. 16, 415–429 (1995)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J.: Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl. Econ. 16, 289–326 (2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Schwarz, G.: Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann. Stat. 6, 461–464 (1978)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Wan-Chen, Po, Bwo-Nung, Huang: Tourism development and economic growth—a nonlinear approach. Phys. A 387(2008), 5535–5542 (2008)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, EconomicsNevsehir Hacı Bektas Veli UniversityNevsehirTurkey

Personalised recommendations