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Quality & Quantity

, Volume 43, Issue 6, pp 913–940 | Cite as

A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series

  • Esther Stroe-Kunold
  • Joachim WernerEmail author
Original Paper

Abstract

A significant correlation between integrated time series does not necessarily imply a meaningful relation. The relation can also be meaningless, i.e. spurious. Cointegration is sometimes illustrated by the metaphor of ‘a drunk and her dog’. The relation between integrated processes is meaningful, if they are cointegrated. To prevent spurious correlations, integrated series are usually transformed. This implies a loss of information. In case of cointegration, these transformations are no longer necessary. Moreover, it can be shown that cointegration tests are instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series. This paper compares the Dickey–Fuller and the Johansen cointegration test. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, we found that these cointegration tests are a much more accurate alternative for the identification of spurious relations compared to the rather imprecise method of utilizing the R 2-and DW-statistics recommended by some authors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that cointegration techniques are precise methods of distinguishing between spurious and meaningful relations even if the dependency between the processes is very low. Using these tests, the researcher is not in danger of either neglecting a small but meaningful relation or regarding a relation as meaningful which is actually spurious.

Keywords

Spurious correlation Spurious regression Cointegration Multivariate time series analysis Psychological process research Longitudinal analysis Stationarity Monte Carlo experiments 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of PsychologyUniversity of HeidelbergHeidelbergGermany

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