Abstract
Without acknowledging the paradigm difference between testing theory and predicting events, researchers in the field of management and organization continue to use the DEL-technique as a promising technique to evaluate theory based on cross-classification data analysis. We address the purpose and interpretation of the DEL-measure within the theory-testing and events-predicting paradigm. We argue that DEL, a proportionate reduction in error measure, is not to be interpreted in terms of the proportionate error reduction of knowing a prediction rule over not knowing it. In addition, a significant DEL-value is not to be interpreted as a dependence-measure of acceptance of a hypothesis as the only and best relationship between two categorical variables, just as a non-significant DEL-value cannot be interpreted as a measure of independence. Furthermore, an alternative proportionate reduction in error measure generates unequivocally interpretable results compared to the DEL-technique.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agresti A. (1984). Analysis of Ordinal Categorical Data. New York, Wiley
Armstrong J.S. (1985). Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer, 2nd edn. New York, Wiley
Auster E.R. (1992). The relationship of industry evolution to patterns of technology linkages, joint ventures, and direct investment between U.S. and Japan. Management Science 38: 778–792
Bamberger I. (1994). Product/Market Strategies of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. Avebury, Aldershot
Berry K.J., Martin T.W., Olson K.F. (1974). “Testing Theoretical Hypotheses: A PRE Statistic”. Social Forces, 53(2, dec.):190–196
Costner H. L. (1965). Criteria for measures of association. American Sociological Review 30(June): 341–353
Drazin R., Kazanjian R.K. (1990). Research notes and communications; a reanalysis of Miller and Friesen’s life cycle data. Strategic Management Journal 11: 319–325
Drazin R., Kazanjian R.K. (1993). Applying the DEL-technique to the analysis of cross-classification data: a test of CEO succession and top management team development. Academy of Management Journal, 36: 1374–1399
Freedman D.A. (1983). A note on screening regressions equations. The American Statistician 37:152–155
Gankema H.G.J., Snuif H.R., Zwart P.S. (2000). The internationalization process of small and medium-sized enterprises: an evaluation of stage theory. Journal of Small Business Management 38(4): 15–27
Goodman L.A., Kruskal W. (1954). Measures of association for cross-classification. Journal of the American Statistical Association 49: 732–764
Goodman L.A., Kruskal W. (1974a). Empirical evaluation of formal theory. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 3: 187–196
Goodman L.A., Kruskal W. (1974b). More about empirical evaluation of formal theory. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 3: 211–213
Guttman L. (1941). An outline of the statistical theory of prediction. Supplementary study B-1. In: Horst P. et al. (eds) The Prediction of Personal Adjustment: Bulletin 48: 213–258. New York: Social Science Research Council.
Haahti, A. J. (1989). Entrepreneurs’ Strategic Orientation: Modeling Strategic Behavior in Small Industrial Owner-Managed Firms. (PhD-dissertation, The Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration), Helsinki.
Haberman S.J. (1977). Prediction analysis of cross classifications. Journal of the American Statistical Association 72: 923–924
Hildebrand D.K., Laing J.D., Rosenthal H.L. (1974a). Prediction logic: a method for empirical evaluation of formal theory. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 3: 163–185
Hildebrand D.K., Laing J.D., Rosenthal H.L. (1974b). Prediction logic and quasi-independence in empirical evaluation of formal theory. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 3: 197–209
Hildebrand D.K., Laing J.D., Rosenthal H.L. (1977). Prediction Analysis of Cross Classifications. New York, Wiley
Hunt S.D. (2002). Foundations of Marketing Theory: Towards a General Theory of Marketing. New York, M. E. Sharpe, Inc.
Hurry D., Miller A.T., Bowman E.H. (1992). Calls on high-technology: japanese exploration of venture capital investments in the United States. Strategic Management Journal, 13: 85–101
Kazanjian R.K., Drazin R. (1989). An empirical test of a stage of growth progression model. Management Science 35(12): 1489–1503
Kazanjian R.K., Drazin R. (1990). A stage-contingent model of design and growth for technology-based new ventures. Journal of Business Venturing 5: 137–150
Kerlinger F.N., Lee H.B. (2000). Foundations of Behavioral Research. New York, Holt Reinhart and Winston
Lejour, A. M. & Nahuis, R. (2000). Openness, growth and R&D spillovers: uncovering the missing link? Research memorandum no. 168, CPB, The Haque.
Lovell M.C. (1983). “Datamining”. The Review of Economics and Statistics 65: 1–12
Mayer T. (1975). Selecting economic hypotheses by goodness of fit. The Economic Journal, 85: 877–883
Mc.Cullagh P.J., Nelder J.A. (1989). Generalized Linear Models 2nd ed. London, Chapman & Hall
Postma T.J.B.M., Kok R.A.W. (1999). Organizational diagnosis in practice: a cross-classification analysis using the DEL-technique. European Management Journal 17 (6): 584–597
Santner T.J., Duffy D.E. (1989). The Statistical Analysis of Discrete Data. New York, Springer-Verlag
Snuif, H. R. & Zwart, P. S. (1994). Modeling New Venture Development as a path of Configurations. Paper presented at the 39th ICBS World Conference, Strassbourg, Proceedings, pp. 263–274.
Steerneman, A. G. M. (1987). On the Choice of Variables in Discriminant and Regression Analysis. PhD-thesis, University of Groningen, Groningen.
Steerneman A.G.M., Rorijs G. (1988). Pitfalls for forecasters. In: Theo K. Dijkstra (eds) On Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications; Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Vol 307. New York, Springer-Verlag, pp. 102–117
Tidd J., Bessant J.R., Pavitt K. (1997). Managing Innovation: Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change. Chichester, Wiley
van der Valk W.D.M. (1998). De Innovativiteit van de Nederlandse Industrie (the innovativeness of Dutch industries). The Hague, EIM
Winer R.S., Ryan M.J. (1979). “Analyzing cross-classification data: An improved method for predicting events”. Journal of Marketing Research 16(November): 539–544
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Ton Steerneman passed away on September, 28, 2005.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kok, R.A.W., Postma, T.J.B.M. & Steerneman, A.G.M. Cross-Classification Analysis Using Prediction Logic Versus Theory-Testing Logic: Comments on the Use of the DEL-Technique. Qual Quant 42, 491–511 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-006-9056-0
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-006-9056-0