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Table 1 Relation of swing to majority

From: Are marginals different? Evidence from British elections 1950–2015

  Swing to gainer Swing to gainer Swing to gainer
(1) (2) (3)  
Majority −0.0012 0.0678***
(0.660) (0.000)  
Majority squared −0.0013***
  (0.000)  
Conservative majority    0.1833***
   (0.000)
Cons. maj. squared −0.0049***
   (0.000)
Labour majority    0.0472***
   (0.000)
Lab. maj. squared −0.0007
   0(0.000)
Labour seat 0.5829***
   (0.001)
Other parties −0.011* 0.0064*** −0.0199***
(0.074) (0.001) (0.003)
Incumbent 0.8018*** 0.8190*** 0.8362***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Lag incumbent −0.8269*** −0.8434*** −0.8216***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
1951 1.134 0.601 0.112
1955 1.555 1.014 0.551
1959 1.046 0.519 0.091
1964 3.909 3.415 2.942
1966 3.056 2.555 1.959
1970 4.741 4.277 3.668
1974 (Oct) 2.190 1.755 1.141
1979 4.833 4.388 3.767
1987 2.872 2.429 1.857
1992 3.430 2.949 2.467
2001 2.124 1.746 1.093
2005 3.762 3.303 2.736
2015 1.402 1.012 0.503
Adjusted R2 0.495 0.503 0.520
No. of obs. 6231 6231 6231
  1. Constituency results between 1950 and 1997 are from Caramani, D., Elections in western Europe since 1815: electoral results by constituencies (London: Macmillan, 2000). Constituency results for 2001 and 2005 are taken from Norris P., The British Parliamentary Constituency Database, 1992–2005 (Release 1.3)
  2. Constituency results for 2010 and 2015 are taken from the British Election Studies for those elections (http://www.britishelectionstudy.com) The incumbency status of candidates is compiled from Whitaker’s Almanack
  3. * significant at 10% level, *** significant at 1% level