Public Choice

, Volume 142, Issue 3–4, pp 297–313 | Cite as

The progress of the betting in a baseball game

  • Raymond D. Sauer
  • J. Kerry Waller
  • Jahn K. Hakes


The development of the Internet has led to the creation of countless new markets, among them, online, in-game betting markets for sporting contests. We examine the behavior of prices as events unfold in a baseball game. Specifically, we compare the evolution of prices during a game with probability estimates generated by an empirical model of scoring in baseball. We find that price changes correspond closely to changes in the probability of winning, for plays of both small and dramatic impact. Nevertheless, data limitations inhibit the ability to make strong claims regarding the hypothesis of efficient pricing.


Sportometrics Betting markets Market efficiency 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Raymond D. Sauer
    • 1
  • J. Kerry Waller
    • 2
  • Jahn K. Hakes
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsClemson UniversityClemsonUSA
  2. 2.Department of International Business and ManagementDickinson CollegeCarlisleUSA
  3. 3.Department of Economics and ManagementAlbion CollegeAlbionUSA

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