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Business cycle and political election outcomes: Evidence from the Chilean democracy

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Abstract

This paper explores the influence of economic variables in Chilean presidential elections. We use a panel where the dependent variable corresponds to the share of the vote obtained by the incumbent at a municipal level in the presidential elections of 1989, 1993 and 1999. We focus on the unemployment rate and the output gap and find that both have a significant influence on the vote. We also find that if the mayor is from the same coalition as the incumbent, people will further punish the incumbent when regional unemployment is above national unemployment.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Economics Department, Universidad Católica de Chile, Casilla 76, Correo 17, Santiago, Chile

    Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara

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  1. Rodrigo Cerda
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  2. Rodrigo Vergara
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Correspondence to Rodrigo Cerda.

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JEL classification: C33, E32

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Cerda, R., Vergara, R. Business cycle and political election outcomes: Evidence from the Chilean democracy. Public Choice 132, 125–136 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-006-9138-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-006-9138-5

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