Identifying a High-Risk Cohort in a Complex and Dynamic Risk Environment: Out-of-bounds Skiing—An Example from Avalanche Safety
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The development of effective prevention initiatives requires a detailed understanding of the characteristics and needs of the target audience. To properly identify at-risk individuals, it is crucial to clearly delineate risky from acceptable behavior. Whereas health behavior campaigns commonly use single conditions (e.g., lack of condom use) to identify high-risk cohorts, many risk behaviors are more complex and context dependent, rendering a single condition approach inadequate. Out-of-bounds skiing, an activity associated with voluntary exposure to avalanche hazard, is an example of such a multifaceted risk-taking activity. Using a dataset from an extensive online survey on out-of-bounds skiing, we present an innovative approach for identifying at-risk individuals in complex risk environments. Based on a risk management framework, we first examine risk-taking preferences of out-of-bounds skiers with respect to exposure and preparedness—the two main dimensions of risk management—separately. Our approach builds on existing person-centered research and uses Latent Class Analysis to assign survey participants to mutually exclusive behavioral classes on these two dimensions. Discrete Choice Experiments are introduced as a useful method for examining exposure preferences in the context of variable external conditions. The two class designations are then combined using a risk matrix to assign overall risk levels to each survey participant. The present approach complements existing person-centered prevention research on the antecedents of risk-taking by offering a process-oriented method for examining behavioral patterns with respect to the activity itself. Together, the two approaches can offer a much richer perspective for informing the design of effective prevention initiatives.
KeywordsHigh-risk cohort identification Avalanche safety Out-of-bounds skiing Visual discrete choice experiment Latent class analysis Person-centered research
This project was part of the ADFAR2 initiative of the Canadian Avalanche Centre, which was funded by the Government of Canada through the Search and Rescue New Initiatives Fund (SAR-NIF). We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor David MacKinnon for their constructive comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript.
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