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A multinomial probit analysis of shanghai commute mode choice

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Abstract

Commute trips account for a large portion of travel demand in peak hours and significantly influence the operation of urban transportation systems. In this paper, we apply a fully flexible multinomial probit (MNP) model for the analysis of commute mode choice behavior, and compare this MNP model with more traditional discrete choice models, including the multinomial logit (MNL), the cross-nested logit (CNL), the heteroscedastic independent MNP (HI-MNP), and the homoscedastic non-independent MNP (HONI-MNP). The two-variate bivariate screening (TVBS) approach, a recently developed analytical evaluation for the multivariate normal cumulative distribution (MVNCD) function, is employed. The sample for analysis is drawn from a web-based travel survey conducted in Shanghai. Overall, from a data fit perspective at, both the disaggregate and aggregate levels, the MNP clearly outperforms all the other four models, underscoring the importance of considering both heteroscedasticity as well as correlated error terms when estimating mode choice models. Policy implications are also examined and discussed.

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Data are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Notes

  1. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of alternative multinomial mode choice models (MNL, CNL, HI-MP, HONI-MNP) with that of the full MNP multinomial mode choice model for motorized commute modes that lead to traffic congestion. Further the market share of the walking mode is low in Shanghai due to job-housing imbalance considerations. Therefore, bicycling and walking are just modeled as one non-motorized mode in this paper.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the general project “Study on the Mechanism of Travel Pattern Reconstruction in Mobile Internet Environment” (No. 71671129), “The Investigation of the Mechanism for the Impact of ‘Auto/P+R’ Multi-Modal Traveler Information on Mode Choice” (No. 71871143) and the key project “Research on the Theories for Modernization of Urban Transport Governance” (No. 71734004) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Funding

This research is supported by the general project “Study on the Mechanism of Travel Pattern Reconstruction in Mobile Internet Environment” (No. 71671129), “The Investigation of the Mechanism for the Impact of ‘Auto/P+R’ Multi-Modal Traveler Information on Mode Choice” (No. 71871143) and the key project “Research on the Theories for Modernization of Urban Transport Governance” (No. 71734004) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China

    Ke Wang

  2. Center for Supernetworks Research, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China

    Ke Wang

  3. Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 301 E. Dean Keeton St. Stop C1761, Austin, TX, 78712, USA

    Chandra R. Bhat

  4. The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong

    Chandra R. Bhat

  5. Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education, College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 201804, China

    Xin Ye

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The authors confirm contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: KW, CRB, XY; data collection: Wang; analysis and interpretation of results: KW, CRB, XY; draft manuscript preparation: KW, CRB, XY. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xin Ye.

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Wang, K., Bhat, C.R. & Ye, X. A multinomial probit analysis of shanghai commute mode choice. Transportation 50, 1471–1495 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-022-10284-x

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