Abstract
The planning of transport infrastructure must consider both the short-term capacity demand and the equipment’s maintenance needs, as well as the long-term evolution of the transportation system. In the freight transportation system, long-term evolutions stem from the individual behaviours of several stakeholders and their dynamic relationships. Their actions may change how the infrastructure is used, giving rise to bottlenecks, or novel development opportunities. However, existing project planning techniques tend to make static assumptions on these agents’ behaviours when predicting future developments. Furthermore, there is a need for models able to simulate short-term developments in transport operations alongside long-term system evolutions. This work aims to contribute towards solving these gaps, particularly in what concerns the consideration of stakeholder adaptation strategies when confronted with infrastructure alterations. We propose a novel a dual-approach Agent-based Modelling concept, based on Hybrid Modelling methodologies. This framework is comprised of two distinct modules: the micro module reproduces short-term freight transport operations in the physical network, while the macro module captures the stakeholders’ decision-making in the long-term. These modules continuously communicate with one another, updating critical information regarding system conditions throughout the simulation period. The developed modelling concept was assessed through a set of simulation trials, which revealed its sensitivity to different scenarios of railway project implementation and demonstrated its potential for capturing the possible outcomes of distinct infrastructure projects, stimulating the responses of stakeholders to the new market conditions, and identifying network bottlenecks.
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Notes
\(U_{road} = 0.393 - 0.015 \times {\text{Cos}} t - 0.262 \times Time - 0.488 \times average\_Punctuality + 0.162 \times Flexibility\) where, 0.393 is the alternative specific constant for road.
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Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the funding of this research by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT—Portugal), under grant PD/BD/142950/2018.
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This research was funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT—Portugal), under grant PD/BD/142950/2018.
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JC: Literature review, concept design and modelling, data collection and analysis, manuscript drafting. VR and PT: Support in concept design and on simulation set-up, manuscript review.
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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. The corresponding author reports that the conceptualization of the modelling structure described in this work was accepted for presentation at the 5th Interdisciplinary Conference on Production, Logistics and Traffic (ICPLT).
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Cunha, J., Reis, V. & Teixeira, P. Development of an agent-based model for railway infrastructure project appraisal. Transportation 49, 1649–1681 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10223-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10223-2