Skip to main content

Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Transportation volume 45, pages 1009–1027 (2018)Cite this article

Abstract

This study develops and applies a multimodal computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the role of resilience in the economic consequences of transportation system failures. Vulnerability and economic resilience of different modes of transportation infrastructure, including air, road, rail, water and local transit, are assessed using a CGE model that incorporates various resilience tactics including modal substitution, trip conservation, excess capacity, relocation/rerouting, and service recapture. The linkages between accessibility, vulnerability, and resilience are analyzed. The model is applied to the transportation system failures in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina to illustrate its capabilities. The analytical framework, however, has broader applications and can provide insights for resource allocations to enhance emergent responses to unexpected events and to improve resilient design of transportation infrastructure systems.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price includes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1

Notes

  1. “Failure” often means total shutdown or complete cessation. The more general case is partial shutdown—disruption. We consider the influence of Hurricane Katrina on transportation infrastructures in Louisiana as a failure because the systems were completed shutdown for days. See additional evidence provided by Smyrlis (2005).

  2. See Rose (2009) on how these various tactics relate to the basic concept of the economic production function.

  3. Bicycling and walking conserve on the number of trips on formal transportation modes (which relate to transportation service providers, both private and government) that have to be made, which is consistent with the definition of economic resilience. We reserve the term substitution for shifts between formal modes.

  4. Excess capacity promotes production recapture, and is also a separate resilience tactic (similar to system redundancy).

  5. The model was originally developed by Oladosu and Rose for environmental policy analysis (Rose and Oladosu 2002) and for consequence analysis of terrorism events (Rose et al. 2009).

  6. It refers to the depiction of a hierarchal decision-making process. The nested structure provides the reader with an illustration with regard to transport in Level 4 and Level 3.

  7. An example of the estimation of the Transportation nest substitution elasticities can be found in Avetisyan (2012).

  8. Again, our analysis focuses on static resilience only, i.e., we evaluate the adaptive ability to utilize remaining resources available as efficiently as possible to maintain function. Investment related to the implementation of these resilience tactics is beyond the scope of the analysis.

  9. Due to data limitations, our assessment measures the national economic impact of transportation system failure after Hurricane Katrina. One should also note that a regional level impact assessment may be more relevant once such data become available.

References

  • Avetisyan, M.: Essays on the International Trade Impacts of Climate Policy. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (2012)

  • Bruneau, M., Chang, S.E., Eguchi, R.T., Lee, G.C., O’Rourke, T.D., Reinhorn, A.M., von Winterfeldt, D.: A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities. Earthq. Spectra 19(4), 733–752 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, L., Miller-Hooks, E.: Resilience: an indicator of recovery capability in intermodal freight transport. Transp. Sci. 46(1), 109–123 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Z., Haynes, K.: Spatial impact of transportation infrastructure: a spatial econometric CGE approach. In: Nijkamp, P., Rose, A., Kourtit, K. (eds.) Regional science matters—Studies dedicated to Walter Isard, pp. 163–186. Springer, Berlin (2015a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Z., Haynes, K.: Multilevel assessment of public transportation infrastructure: a spatial econometric computable general equilibrium approach. Ann. Reg. Sci. 54(3), 663–685 (2015b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Z., Rose, A., Prager, F., Chatterjee, S.: Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: a reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 95, 207–226 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cox, A., Prager, F., Rose, A.: Transportation security and the role of resilience: a foundation for operational metrics. Transp. Policy 18(1), 307–317 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Federal Emergency Management Agency: HAZUS. http://www.fema.gov/hazus (2015)

  • IMPLAN: Social accounting matrix for the U.S. National Economy. http://implan.com/ (2012)

  • Kajitani, Y., Tatano, H.: Estimation of lifeline resilience factors based on empirical surveys of Japanese industries. Earthq. Spectra 25(4), 755–776 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koetse, M.J., Rietveld, P.: the impact of climate change and weather on transport: an overview of empirical findings. Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ. 14(3), 205–221 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leu, L., Abbass, H., Curtis, N.: Resilience of ground transportation networks: a case study on Melbourne. Paper delivered at the 33rd Australasian Transport Research Forum Conference held in Canberra, 29 September–1 October (2010)

  • Miller-Hooks, E., Zhang, X., Faturechi, R.: Measuring and maximizing resilience of freight transportation networks. Comput. Oper. Res. 39(7), 1633–1643 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Modica, M., Reggiani, A.: Spatial economic resilience: overview and perspectives. Netw. Spat. Econ. 15(2), 211–233 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morris, J.M., Dumble, P.L., Wigan, M.R.: Accessibility indicators for transport planning. Transp. Res. Part A Gen. 13(2), 91–109 (1979)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Östh, J., Reggiani, A., Galiazzo, G.: Spatial economic resilience and accessibility: a joint perspective. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 49, 148–159 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reed, D.A., Kapur, K.C., Christie, R.D.: Methodology for assessing the resilience of networked infrastructure. IEEE Syst. J. 3(2), 174–180 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reggiani, A.: Network resilience for transport security: some methodological considerations. Transp. Policy 28, 63–68 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reggiani, A., Nijkamp, P., Lanzi, D.: Transport resilience and vulnerability: the role of connectivity. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 81, 4–15 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A.: Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions. Environ. Hazards 7(4), 383–395 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A.: Economic Resilience to Disasters. CARRI Research Report #8. ORNL (2009)

  • Rose, A.: Macroeconomic consequences of terrorist attacks: estimation for the analysis of policies and rules. In: Mansfield, C., Smith, V.K. (eds.) Benefit transfer for the analysis of DHS policies and rules, pp. 172–201. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A., Liao, S.: Modeling resilience to disasters: computable general equilibrium analysis of a water service disruption. J. Reg. Sci. 45(1), 75–112 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A., Wei, D.: Estimating the economic consequences of a port shutdown: the special role of resilience. Econ. Syst. Res. 25(2), 212–232 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A., Oladosu, G., Liao, S.: Business interruption impacts of a terrorist attack on the electric power system of Los Angeles: customer resilience to a total blackout. Risk Anal. 27(3), 513–531 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A., Oladosu, G., Lee, B., Asay, G.B.: The economic impacts of the September 11 terrorist attacks: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Peace Econ. Peace Sci. Public Policy 15(2), 1–28 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A., Avetisyan, M., Burns, W., Slovic, P., Rosoff, H., Chan, O.: The role of behavioral responses in the total economic consequences of terrorist attacks on U.S. air travel targets. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Integrated Risk Management, October (2014)

  • Schlake, B.W., Barkan, C.P., Edwards, J.R.: Train delay and economic impact of in-service failures of railroad rolling stock. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board 2261(1), 124–133 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi, Y., Jin, S., Seeland, K.: Modeling business interruption impacts due to disrupted highway network of Shifang by the Wenchuan earthquake. Nat. Hazards 75(2), 1731–1745 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Snelder, M., Van Zuylen, H.J., Immers, L.H.: A framework for robustness analysis of road networks for short term variations in supply. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 46(5), 828–842 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smyrlis, L.: Transportation infrastructure is decimated by Katrina. http://www.trucknews.com/features/transportation-infrastructure-is-decimated-by-katrina/ (2005). Accessed 28 Dec 2015

  • Ta, C., Goodchild, A., Pitera, K.: Structuring a definition of resilience for the freight transportation system. Transp. Res. Rec. J. Transp. Res. Board 2097, 19–25 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tamvakis, P., Xenidis, Y.: Resilience in transportation systems. Proc. Soc. Behav. Sci. 48, 3441–3450 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Government Accounting Office: Hurricane Katrina GAO’s preliminary observations regarding preparedness, response, and recovery: statement of David M. Walker comptroller general of the United States. GAO-06-442T. Washington, DC (2006)

  • Wright, K.M., Hogan, C.: The potential impacts of global sea level rise on transportation infrastructure. In: ICF International Prepared for the U.S. DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting (2008)

  • Xie, W., Li, N., Li, C., Wu, J.D., Hu, A., Hao, X.: Quantifying cascading effects triggered by disrupted transportation due to the Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm: implications for disaster risk management. Nat. Hazards 70(1), 337–352 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2010-ST-061-RE0001-05. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The authors are grateful for the excellent assistance from Joshua Banks, and Noah Miller. An early version of this paper was presented at the Eighth NECTAR International Conference held at Ann Arbor, Michigan in 2015. Any errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. City and Regional Planning, Knowlton School of Architecture, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    Zhenhua Chen

  2. The National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Adam Rose

Authors
  1. Zhenhua Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Adam Rose
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhenhua Chen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chen, Z., Rose, A. Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Transportation 45, 1009–1027 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-017-9819-6

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-017-9819-6

Keywords

  • Transportation
  • System failure
  • Economic resilience
  • Accessibility
  • Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling
  • Hurricane Katrina