Metro service disruptions: how do people choose to travel?
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While metro disruptions can have a significant impact to the travel patterns and behavior of users, research on that topic has been limited. Using Athens, Greece, as a study case, this paper combines information on traveler experiences and perceptions and attempts to model mode choice during a long-run metro service disruption. A Nested Logit (NL) approach for jointly analyzing RP/SP data is applied and compared to individual RP and SP based MNL models. Findings suggest that the propensity to shift to buses or cars in such cases depends—to a large extent—on the travelers’ available income. Also, the possibility of a flexible work schedule is negatively correlated with the choice of using a car during metro closures. Finally, the overall performance of the joint RP/SP Nested Logit model has been found to be superior to that of the joint RP/SP MNL model.
KeywordsMetro disruptions Travel behaviour Joint RP/SP Nested Logit model
This paper is devoted to Prof. Matthew Karlaftis, who met an untimely death in June, 2014. This work is part of research co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund—ESF) and the Hellenic National Funds, through the Operational Program “Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF)—Research Funding Program “Aristeia I”.
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