, Volume 43, Issue 5, pp 843–867 | Cite as

Measuring the impacts of weather variability on home-based trip chaining behaviour: a focus on spatial heterogeneity

  • Chengxi LiuEmail author
  • Yusak O. Susilo
  • Anders Karlström


Using the 2011 Swedish national travel survey data, this paper explores the influence of weather characteristics on individuals’ home-based trip chaining complexity. A series of panel mixed ordered Probit models are estimated to examine the influence of individual/household social demographics, land use characteristics, and weather characteristics on individuals’ home-based trip chaining complexity. A thermal index, the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), is used in this study instead of using directly measured weather variables in order to better approximate the effects of the thermal environment. The effects of UTCI are segmented into different seasons to account for the seasonal difference of UTCI effects. Moreover, a spatial expansion method is applied to allow the impacts of UTCI to vary across geographical locations, as individuals in different regions have different weather/climate adaptions. The effects of weather are examined in subsistence, routine, and discretionary trip chains. The results reveal that the ‘ground covered with snow’ condition is the most influential factor on the number of trips chained per trip chain among all other weather factors. The variation of UTCI significantly influences trip chaining complexity in autumn but not in spring and winter. The routine trip chains are found to be most elastic towards the variation of UTCI. The marginal effects of UTCI on the expected number of trips per routine trip chain have considerable spatial variations, while these spatial trends of UTCI effects are found to be not consistent over seasons.


Trip chaining complexity Weather impact Thermal index Spatial heterogeneity 


  1. Algers, S.: National transport survey report, RES 2000. Swedish official statistics. VTI, Stockholm (2001)Google Scholar
  2. Andrews, G., Parkhurst, G., Susilo, Y.O., Shaw, J.: The grey escape: investigating older people’s use of the free bus pass. J. Transp. Plan. Technol. 35(1), 3–15 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Arana, P., Cabezudo, S., Peñalba, P.: Influence of weather conditions on transit ridership: a statistical study using data from Smartcards. Transp. Res. A 59, 1–12 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bergström, A., Magnusson, R.: Potential of transferring car trips to bicycle during winter. Transp. Res. A 37(8), 649–666 (2003)Google Scholar
  5. Bayarma, A., Kitamura, R., Susilo, Y.O.: On the recurrence of daily travel patterns: a stochastic-process approach to multi-day travel behavior. Transp. Res. Rec. 2021, 55–63 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Blazejczyk, K., Epstein, Y., Jendritzky, G., Staiger, H., Tinz, B.: Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices. Int. J. Biometeorol. 56, 515–535 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Böcker, L., Prillwitz, J., Dijst, M.: Climate change impacts on mode choices and travelled distances: a comparison of present with 2050 weather conditions for the Randstad Holland. J. Transp. Geogr. 28, 176–185 (2013a)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Böcker, L., Dijst, M., Prillwitz, J.: Impact of everyday weather on individual daily travel behaviours in perspective: a literature review. Transp. rev. A Transnatl. Transdiscipl. J. 33, 71–91 (2013b)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chu, Y.: Daily stop-making model for workers. Transp. Res. Rec. 1894, 37–45 (2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Currie, G., Delbosc, A.: Exploring the trip chaining behaviour of public transport users in Melbourne. Transp. Policy 18(1), 204–210 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cools, M., Creemers, L.: The dual role of weather forecasts on changes in activity–travel behaviour. J. Transp. Geogr. 28, 167–175 (2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Creemers, L., Wets, G., Cools, M.: Meteorological variation in daily travel behaviour: evidence from revealed preference data from the Netherlands. Theor Appl Climatol (2014). doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1169-0 Google Scholar
  13. Chen, R.B., Mahmassani, H.S.: Let it rain: weather effects on activity stress and scheduling behaviour. Travel Behav. Soc. 2(1), 55–64 (2015)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Dijst, M., Böcker, L., Kwan, M.P.: Exposure to weather and implications for travel behaviour: introducing empirical evidence from Europe and Canada. J. Transp. Geogr. 28(1), 24–26 (2013)Google Scholar
  15. Dharmowijoyo, D.B.E., Susilo, Y.O., Karlström, A.: The day-to-day variability in travellers’ activity–travel patterns in the Jakarta metropolitan area. Transportation (2015). doi: 10.1007/s11116-015-9591-4 Google Scholar
  16. Farber, S., Paez, A., Morency, C.: Activity spaces and the measurement of clustering and exposure: a case study of linguistic groups in Montreal. Environ. Plan. A 44, 315–332 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Greene, W.H.: Econometric Analysis, 5th edn. New York University, New York (2003)Google Scholar
  18. Golob, T.F., Hensher, D.A.: The trip chaining activity of Sydney residents: a cross-section assessment by age group with a focus on seniors. J. Transp. Geogr. 15, 298–312 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Gebhart, K., Noland, R.: The impact of weather conditions on bikeshare trips in Washington, DC. Transportation 41(6), 1205–1225 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Habib, N.K., Day, N., Miller, E.J.: An investigation of commuting trip timing and mode choice in the Greater Toronto Area: application of a joint discrete-continuous model. Transp. Res. A 43(7), 639–653 (2009)Google Scholar
  21. Keay, K., Simmonds, I.: The association of rainfall and other weather variables with road traffic volume in Melbourne. Australia. Accid. Anal. Prev. 37, 109–124 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kitamura, R., Susilo, Y.O.: Does a Grande Latte really stir up gridlock? Stops in commute journeys and incremental travel. Transp. Res. Rec. 1985, 198–206 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Koetse, M.J., Rietveld, P.: The impact of climate change and weather on transport: an overview of empirical findings. Transp. Res. D 14(3), 205–221 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kim, N.S., Susilo, Y.O.: Comparison of pedestrian trip generation models. J. Adv. Transportation. 47, 399–412 (2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Liu, C., Susilo, Y.O., Karlström, A.: Examining the impact of weather variability on non-commuters’ daily activity-travel patterns in different regions of Sweden. J. Transp. Geogr. 39, 36–48 (2014a)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Liu, C., Susilo, Y.O., Karlström, A.: The influence of weather characteristics variability on individual’s travel mode choice in different seasons and regions in Sweden. J. Transp. Policy. (2014b). doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2015.01.001 Google Scholar
  27. McGuckin, N., Murakami, E.: Examining trip-chaining behavior: a comparison of travel by men and women. Transp. Res. Rec. 1693, 79–85 (1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. McGuckin, N., Nakamoto, Y.: Trips, chains and tours—using an operational definition. NHTS Conference, Washington (2004)Google Scholar
  29. Madre, J., Axhausen, K., Brög, W.: Immobility in travel diary surveys. Transportation 34(1), 107–128 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Morency, C., Paez, A., Roorda, M.J., Mercado, R., Farber, S.: Distance travelled in three Canadian cities: spatial analysis from the perspective of vulnerable population segments. J. Transp. Geogr. 19, 39–50 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Noland, R.B., Thomas, J.V.: Multivariate analysis of trip-chaining behaviour. Environ. Plan. 34, 953–970 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Nikolopoulou, M., Lykoudis, S.: Use of outdoor spaces and microclimate in a Mediterranean urban area. Build Environ. 42, 3691–3707 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Primerano, F., Taylor, M.A.P., Pitaksringkarn, L., Tisato, P.: Defining and understanding trip chaining behaviour. Transportation 35, 55–72 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Susilo, Y.O., Maat, K.: The influence of built environment to the trends in commuting journeys in the Netherlands. Transportation 34, 589–609 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Susilo, Y.O., Kitamura, R.: Structural changes in commuters’ daily travel: the case of auto and transit commuters in the Osaka metropolitan area of Japan, 1980–2000. Transp. Res. A 42(1), 95–115 (2008)Google Scholar
  36. Schmöcker, J.D., Su, F., Noland, R.B.: An analysis of trip chaining among older London residents. Transportation 37, 105–123 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Sabir, M.: Weather and travel behaviour. VU University, Amsterdam. (2011). Accessed 20 Oct 2012
  38. Saneinejad, S., Roorda, M.J., Kennedy, C.: Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour. Transp. Res. D 17(2), 129–137 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. SMHI: Historical weather data from 1961 to 2011. (2012). Accessed in 12 Sep 2012
  40. Susilo, Y.O., Avineri, A.: The impacts of household structure to the day-to-day variability of individual and household stochastic travel time budget. J. Adv. Transportation. 48, 454–470 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. UTCI website: Accessed in 10 Oct 2014
  42. Winters, M., Friesen, M.C., Koehoorn, M., Teschke, K.: Utilitarian bicycling: a multilevel analysis of climate and personal influences. Am. J. Prev. Med. 32(1), 52–58 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Ye, X., Pendyala, R.M., Gottardi, G.: An exploration of the relationship between mode choice and complexity of trip chaining patterns. Transp. Res. B 41(1), 96–113 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Yun, M.P., Chen, Z.H., Liu, J.Y.: Comparison of mode choice behavior for work tours and non-work tours considering trip chain complexity. Presented at the 93rd annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington (2014)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Chengxi Liu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Yusak O. Susilo
    • 1
  • Anders Karlström
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Transport ScienceKTH Royal Institute of TechnologyStockholmSweden

Personalised recommendations