Skip to main content

Changing demographics and young adult driver license decline in Melbourne, Australia (1994–2009)

Transportation volume 41, pages 529–542 (2014)Cite this article

Abstract

In the last decade young people in North America, Australia and much of Europe are becoming less likely to hold a driver’s license and, if they can drive, they are driving less. This is a remarkable trend which is not yet well understood. This paper is an empirical analysis exploring the relationship between young adult driver licensing and young adult demographics and living arrangements. In many developed countries, young adults are becoming increasingly less likely to be in full-time work, more likely to be in part-time work or studying, more likely to be living at home with parents and they are getting married and having children later in life. Against the background of these trends, a binary logistic regression model of travel survey data (1994–2009) for Melbourne, Australia is used to explore the association between these demographics and young adult license-holding. The model established that full-time employment and child-rearing are associated with higher young adult licensing rates whereas part-time work and studying were associated with lower licensing rates. However the impact of living at home with parents was not clear and requires further study. Together it is theorised that these changes in living arrangements may be restricting the disposable income of some young adults and reducing or postponing license take-up. The paper concludes with the implications of findings for policy and opportunities for future research.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price includes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Notes

  1. Other age cut-offs were considered but did not significantly change descriptive outcomes.

  2. Pseudo R2 statistics are applied in logistic regression, logit and probit models and are interpreted in a similar fashion to the R2 values reported with linear regression models.

  3. To test whether this factor has a further effect on other variables, models were run to test for an interaction effect with survey year. There were no significant interaction effects.

References

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics: Home and away: the living arrangements of young people. Australian Social Trends. Report 4102.0 (2009a)

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics: Household income and income distribution, 2007–2008 (2009b)

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics: Population by age and sex, Victoria. 3101.0 (2010)

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics: Education and work, Australia (1991–2011). Report 6227.0 (2011)

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics: Australian social trends 2012: locve me do, commonwealth of Australia. Report 4102.0 (2012)

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics: Labour force, Australia. Report 6202.0 (2013)

  • Berg, H.-Y.: Understanding Subgroups of Novice Drivers: A Basis for Increased Safety and Health. Linköping University, Linköping (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics: “School’s out”. Spotlight on statistics Retrieved 10 October 2012, from http://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2011/schools_out/ (2011)

  • Cobb-Clark, D.A.: Leaving home: what economics has to say about the living arrangements of young Australians. Aust. Econ. Rev. 41(2), 160–176 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis, B., Dutzik, T., Baxandall, P.: Transportation and the New Generation: Why Young People Are Driving Less and What It Means for Transportation Policy. Frontier Group, Santa Barbara (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Delbosc, A., Currie, G.: Using online discussion forums to study attitudes toward cars and transit among young people in Victoria. 35th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Perth (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Delbosc, A., Currie, G.: Are changed living arrangements influencing youth driver license decline? Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting, Washington, DC (2013a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Delbosc, A., Currie, G.: Causes of youth licensing decline: a synthesis of evidence. Transp. Rev. 33(3), 271–290 (2013b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Federal Highway Administration: Licensed drivers, by sex and age group, 1963–1995 (Table DL-220) (2011)

  • Gray, M., Qu, L., Weston, R.: Fertility and Family Policy in Australia. Australian Institue of Family Studies, Melbourne (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalmbach, R., Bernhart, W., Kleimann, P.G., Hoffman, M.: Automotive Landscape 2025: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead. Roland Berger, Munich (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuhnimhof, T., Armoogum, J., Buehler, R., Dargay, J., Denstadli, J.M., Yamamoto, T.: Men shape a downward trend in car use among young adults—evidence from six industrialized countries. Transp. Rev. 32(6), 761–779 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuhnimhof, T., Buehler, R., Dargay, J.: A new generation: travel trends for young Germans and Britons. Transp. Res. Rec. 2230, 58–67 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Vine, S., Jones, P.: On the Move: Making Sense of Car and Train Travel Trends in Britain. RAC Foundation, London (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Le Vine, S.E., Jones, P.M., Polak, J.W.: Has the historical growth in car use come to an end in great britain? 37th European Transport Conference. Leeuwenhorst, Netherlands (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Licaj, I., Haddak, M., Pochet, P., Chiron, M.: Individual and contextual socioeconomic disadvantages and car driving between 16 and 24 years of age: a multilevel study in the Rhône Département (France). J. Transp. Geogr. 22, 19–27 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McDonald, N., Trowbridge, M.: Does the built environment affect when American teens become drivers? Evidence from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey. J. Saf. Res. 40, 177–183 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newman, P., Kenworthy, J.: ‘Peak car use’: understanding the demise of automobile dependence. World Transp. Policy Pract. 17(2), 31–42 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  • Noble, B.: Why are some young people choosing not to drive? European Transport Conference, Strasbourg (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  • Office for National Statistics: Young people in the labour market—2011. London (2011)

  • Preusser, D.F., Ferguson, S.A., Williams, A.F., Leaf, W.A., Farmer, C.M.: Teenager driver licensure rates in four states. J. Saf. Res. 29(2), 97–105 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prevedouros, P.D., Schofer, J.L.: Factors affecting automobile ownership and use. Transp. Res. Rec. 1364, 152–160 (1992)

    Google Scholar 

  • Puentes, R., Tomer, A.: The Road… Less Traveled: An Analysis of Vehicle Miles Traveled Trends in the U.S. Metropolitan Infrastructure Initiatives Series. Brookings Institution, Washington DC (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  • Raimond, T., Milthorpe, F.: Why are young people driving less? trends in license-holding and travel behaviour. Australasian Transport Research Forum, Canberra (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, J.M., Han, G.: Vehicle-ownership model using family structure and accessibility application to Honolulu, Hawaii. Transp. Res. Rec. 1676, 1–10 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheiner, J., Holz-Rau, C.: Travel mode choice: affected by objective or subjective determinants? Transportation 34(4), 487–511 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Senserrick, T.M.: Recent developments in young driver education, training and licensing in Australia. J. Saf. Res. 38(2), 237–244 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sivak, M., Schoettle, B.: Recent changes in the age composition of U.S. drivers: implications for the extent, safety, and environmental consequences of personal transportation. Traffic Inj. Prev. 12, 588–592 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sivak, M., Schoettle, B.: Recent changes in the age composition of drivers in 15 countries. Traffic Inj. Prev. 13, 126–132 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, P., Parker, K., Kochhar, R., Fry, R., Funk, C., Patten, E., Motel, S.: Young, Underemployed and Optimistic: Coming of Age, Slowly, in a Tough Economy. Pew Research Center, Washington, D.C (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Census: National estimates by age, sex, race: 1900–1979 (2004)

  • VicRoads: VicRoads license breakdown by age, 2001–2011 (2012)

  • Woldeamanuel, M.G., Cyganski, R., Schulz, A., Justen, A.: Variation of households’ car ownership across time: application of a panel data model. Transportation 36, 371–387 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zumkeller, D., Chlond, B., Manz, W.: Infrastructure development in Germany under stagnating demand conditions: a new paradigm? Transp. Res. Rec. 1864, 121–128 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Victorian Department of Transport for making the VATS and VISTA data available for analysis. An earlier form of this paper was presented at the 92nd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting (Delbosc and Currie 2013a). Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Transport Studies, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Building 60, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia

    Alexa Delbosc & Graham Currie

Authors
  1. Alexa Delbosc
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Graham Currie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alexa Delbosc.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Delbosc, A., Currie, G. Changing demographics and young adult driver license decline in Melbourne, Australia (1994–2009). Transportation 41, 529–542 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9496-z

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9496-z

Keywords

  • Car licensing
  • Young adults
  • Demographic trends