Abstract
The effect of travel time variability (TTV) on route choice behavior is explored in this study. A stated preference survey is conducted to collect behavioral data on Shanghai drivers’ choice between a slow but stable route and a fast but unreliable route. Travel time and TTV are respectively measured by mean and standard deviation of random travel time. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is applied to quantify trade-offs between travel time and TTV. The GLMM based route choice model effectively accounts for correlations among repeated observations from the same respondent, and captures heterogeneity in drivers’ values of TTV. Model estimation results show that, female drivers and drivers with rich driving experience are less likely to choose a route with high TTV; smaller expected travel time of a route increase the probability of its being chosen; all drivers have intrinsic preference for a route with smaller expected travel time, but the degree of preference may vary within the population; TTV on average has negative effects on route choice decision, but a small portion of drivers are risk-prone to choose a fast but unreliable route despite high TTV.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdel-Aty, M., Abdalla, P.: Examination of multiple mode/route-choice paradigms under ATIS. IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst. 7(3), 332–348 (2006)
Abdel-Aty, M., Kitamura, R., Jovanis, P.: Investigating effect of travel time variability on route choice using repeated measurement stated preference data. Transp. Res. Rec. 1493, 39–45 (1995)
Abdel-Aty, M., Kitamura, R., Jovanis, P.: Using Stated preference data for studying the effect of advanced traffic information on drivers’ route choice. Transp. Res. Part C 5(1), 39–50 (1997)
Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 19(6), 716–723 (1974)
Akaike, H.: Likelihood and the Bayes procedure. In: Bernardo, J.M. (ed.) Bayesian Statistics 31 (1), pp. 143–166. University Press, Valencia (1980)
Avineri, E., Prashker, J.N.: Sensitivity to travel time variability: travelers’ learning perspective. Transp. Res. Part C 13(2), 157–183 (2005)
Bates, J., Polak, J., Jones, P., Cook, A.: The valuation of reliability for personal travel. Transp. Res. Part E 37(2–3), 191–229 (2001)
Bovy, P.H.L., Stern, E.: Route Choice: Wayfinding in Transport Networks. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands (1990)
Brownstone, D., Small, K.: Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations. Transp. Res. Part A 39(4), 279–293 (2005)
Carrion, C., Levinson, D.: Value of reliability: high occupancy toll lanes, general purpose lanes, and arterials. In: Conference Proceedings of 4th International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability, Minneapolis (2010)
Carrion, C., Levinson, D.: Value of travel time reliability: a review of current evidence. Transp. Res. Part A 46(4), 720–741 (2012)
de Palma, A., Picard, N.: Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty. Transp. Res. Part A 39(4), 295–324 (2005)
Diggle, P., Heagerty, P., Liang, K.-Y., Zeger, S.L.: Analysis of Longitudinal Data, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press, New York (2002)
Gan, H.C., Ye, X., Wang, Q.: Investigating the effect of travel time variability on drivers’ route choice decisions in Shanghai, China. Transp Plan Technol 33(8), 657–669 (2010)
Laird, N.M., Ware, J.H.: Random-effects models for longitudinal data. Biometrics 38(4), 963–974 (1982)
Lam, T.C., Small, K.A.: The value of time and reliability: measurement from a value pricing experiment. Transp. Res. Part E 37(2–3), 231–251 (2001)
Liang, K.-Y., Zeger, S.L.: Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models. Biometrika 73(1), 13–22 (1986)
Liu, H.X., Recker, W., Chen, A.: Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data. Transp. Res. Part A 38(6), 435–453 (2004)
Liu, H.X., He, X.Z., Recker, W.: Estimation of the time-dependency of values of travel time and its reliability from loop detector data. Transp. Res. Part B 41(4), 448–461 (2007)
McCulloch, C.E., Searle, S.R.: Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models. Wiley, New York (2001)
Nelder, J.A., Wedderburn, R.W.M.: Generalized linear models. J R Stat Soc Series A 135, 370–384 (1972)
Noland, R.B., Polak, J.W.: Travel time variability: a review of theoretical and empirical issues. Transp Rev 22(1), 39–54 (2002)
Pendergast, J.F., Gange, S.J., Newton, M.A., Lindstrom, M.J., Palta, M., Fisher, M.R.: A survey of methods for analyzing clustered binary response data. Int Stat Rev 64(1), 89–118 (1996)
Small, K.A., Winston, C., Yan, J.: Uncovering the distribution of motorists’ preferences. Working paper 01-02-10, Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine (2002)
Tilahun, N.Y., Levinson, D.: A moment of time: reliability in route choice using stated preference. J Intell Transp Syst 14(3), 179–187 (2010)
Acknowledgments
This study was partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51008195, 11001162), a Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project (No. S30504) and a Shanghai First-Class Academic Discipline Project (No. S1201YLXK). Opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of road authorities.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gan, H., Bai, Y. The effect of travel time variability on route choice decision: a generalized linear mixed model based analysis. Transportation 41, 339–350 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9481-6
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9481-6