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Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share

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Abstract

Young people appear to be using public transit more than their predecessors, reversing twentieth century trends, but the importance of such findings depends on whether high transit use persists as these riders age. This paper examines whether transit mode share for commuting trips is increasing; socio-economic and geographic trends are also explored to attempt to determine whether these trends are likely to continue. The study uses repeated cross-sectional origin–destination surveys of Greater Montreal (1998, 2003 and 2008). Over 45,000 home-to-work and home-to-school trips are studied for each survey year. A general lifecycle pattern of decreasing transit share with age is apparent within cohorts until individuals reach their early 30s, followed by decades of stability. This pattern appears to hold in recent years, but with higher youth use rates, and it is argued that the higher use will continue as current younger cohorts mature. Suburbanization by those in their early 30s is evident and, along with household composition changes, appears to explain much of the final within-cohort mode share declines before equilibrium. Transit providers might see lasting ridership gains, as those currently in their early 30s and younger replace lower-use cohorts in the workforce, provided service provision keeps pace. Addressing the needs of young people, whose mode choices are comparatively unsettled, should be a priority for transit agencies to ensure higher transit usage in the future.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Daniel Bergeron and AMT for access to Montreal Origin–Destination survey data analyzed in this paper (2003 and 2008). Thanks to Mr. Pierre Tremblay from the Quebec Ministry of transport for providing the 1998 Montreal Origin–Destination survey. This research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. We would also like to acknowledge the members of TRAM research group for their feedback, especially Kevin Manaugh for conceptual input, Ehab Diab for technical advice and Cynthia Jacques for editing. Thanks also to Edwin Horton, Julien Surprenant-Legault, and Sébastien Gagné for their insights regarding changes in Montreal region in the past fifteen years. Last but not least we would like to thank the four anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

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  1. School of Urban Planning, McGill University, Suite 400, 815 Sherbrooke St. W, Montréal, QC, H3A 2K6, Canada

    Michael Grimsrud & Ahmed El-Geneidy

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  1. Michael Grimsrud
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  2. Ahmed El-Geneidy
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Correspondence to Ahmed El-Geneidy.

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Grimsrud, M., El-Geneidy, A. Transit to eternal youth: lifecycle and generational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share. Transportation 41, 1–19 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9454-9

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