ABSTRACT
Among disaggregate vehicle ownership models, which model the number and/or type of vehicles owned at the household level, one can distinguish holdings models, which deal with the (optimal) household fleet at a single point in time, and transactions models. The latter type of model explains changes to the household fleet, such as replacement and disposal. The paper describes previous attempts at such dynamic models and sketches how a vehicle transactions model could look (as an example we discuss an application to The Netherlands). This includes discussions of transaction probabilities, two-stage budgeting, introducing vehicle quality in the utility functions, and the envisaged model structure and data it could use.
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Notes
Vehicle transaction behavior can be represented by either specifying the frequency and types of transaction events per unit time interval, or measuring the duration between successive events and specifying their types. The latter approach is more suitable if the holding duration of a vehicle tends to be predetermined at the time of its acquisition. A duration model will facilitate appropriate prorating of fixed costs. It is also logical to adopt if vehicle transaction behavior is an "optimum stopping" behavior. These assumptions, however, may not be an appropriate characterization of household behavior. Unfortunately, most available data are cross-sectional, precluding the possibility of empirical examination of the two alternative modeling approaches to household vehicle transaction.
Update by Gerard de Jong, 2009: This proposal was not carried out as such. Instead, in The Netherlands a dynamic vehicle transactions model, based on duration modelling, was developed. This was estimated on new data collected among members of the panel of the Consumentenbond. The model, estimation and simulation results are described in ‘A disaggregate model system of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use’, by Gerard de Jong, published in Transportation Research B, Vol. 30, No. 4 (1996), pp. 263-276.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research is part of a project undertaken for the Transportation and Traffic Research Division (DVK) of Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Transport and Public Works in The Netherlands. Valuable advice has been given by Jeroen Klooster of DVK, Tom Golob of the Institute of Transportation Studies of the University of California, Irvine, and Hugh Gunn and Moshe Ben-Akiva of the Hague Consulting Group.
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Originally appeared as:
de Jong, Gerard C. and Ryuichi Kitamura (1992) A review of household dynamic vehicle ownership models: holdings models versus transactions models. Proceedings of Seminar E, 20th PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, PTRC Education and Research Services Ltd., London, pp. 141–152
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de Jong, G.C., Kitamura, R. A review of household dynamic vehicle ownership models: holdings models versus transactions models. Transportation 36, 733–743 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-009-9243-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-009-9243-7