, Volume 35, Issue 2, pp 219–235 | Cite as

An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois



There have been a number of studies of the effectiveness of vehicle scrappage programs, which offer incentives to accelerated scrappage of older vehicles often thought to be high emitters. These programs are voluntary and aimed at replacement of household vehicles. In contrast, there is a gap in knowledge related to the emissions benefits of government fleet replacement (retirement) programs. In this study, the efficacy of a fleet replacement program for a local government agency in Northern Illinois, the Forest Preserve of DuPage County (FPDC), is examined using a probabilistic vehicle survival model that accounts for time-varying covariates such as vehicle age and gasoline price. The vehicle lifetime operating emissions are calculated based on the estimated vehicle survival probabilities from the survival model and compared with those derived using the EPA default fleet used in MOBILE6 and the fleet represented by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) survival curve. The results suggest that while there may be short term emission benefits of the FPDC fleet replacement plan, the long-term emission benefits are highly sensitive to economic factors (e.g., future gasoline price) and exhibit a decreasing trend. This indicates that an adaptive multi-stage replacement strategy as opposed to a fixed one is preferable to achieve optimal cost effectiveness.


Vehicle scrappage Local government fleet Light duty vehicle Survival probability Lifetime emissions 



We thank the FPDC for providing the fleet inventory data and Sam Long at IEPA for his inputs to MOBILE6.2. We also thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their insightful comments that helped improve the paper.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, Institute for Environmental Science and PolicyUniversity of Illinois at ChicagoChicagoUSA
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringCity College of New YorkNew YorkUSA
  3. 3.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of California at DavisDavisUSA

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