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Housing Instability in an Era of Mass Deportations

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Abstract

The current era of mass deportation has disrupted a record number of families and households in immigrant communities. In most cases, when a parent is deported, the rest of the family stays in the United States. Among those who remain in the US, deportations can have broad ramifications for housing stability. I use linear regression models with metro area and year-fixed effects to examine metro residents responding to the Current Population Survey (2013–2016) and merge these observations with contextual, administrative data from the implementation of a national immigration enforcement program (Secure Communities). I find metro residents in shared households (i.e., households with multiple families) are more likely to experience housing instability in high deportation areas. The positive association between instability and deportations holds only among residents in Hispanic households where noncitizens are present. By contrast, other residents—including those living with non-Hispanic noncitizens, Hispanic U.S. citizens, or non-Hispanic U.S. citizens—are not more likely to report instability in high deportation metros. I discuss possible explanations for these findings and the implications of this study for housing inequality.

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Notes

  1. Figures in this section refer to unweighted CPS respondents included in analyses: residents who are civilians ages one year and over, who lived in the U.S. during the preceding year, were not living in group quarters, living in a county or state with an activated Secure Communities program, and in one of the comparison groups in Tables 2 through 5.

  2. Among metro residents living with both Hispanics and noncitizens, the estimate equals the main coefficient for deportations (\(\beta\) = − 0.029) from model 3 (Table 4) multiplied by the average change in deportation rates during the study period (mean: 0.12) and then divided by the housing instability rate for the group (mean: 0.02): (0.12*− 0.029)/0.02 = (change in enforcement *\(\beta\)) / mean instability = − 0.174 or -17.4%. Results across all models exclude residents in unidentifiable metros, non-metro residents, residents with an unknown metro area status, and a small share of residents surveyed in 2013 where Secure Communities had yet to be activated.

  3. Among metro residents living with both Hispanics and noncitizens, the estimate equals the interaction coefficient (\(\beta\) = 0.014) from model 3 (Table 4) multiplied by the average change in deportation rates during the study period (mean: 0.12) and then divided by the housing instability rate for the group (mean: 0.02): (0.12*0.0142)/0.02 = 8.5%.

  4. In model 6 (Table 4), the product of an annual change in deportations for residents in households with no Hispanic or noncitizen members (0.08) and the coefficient for the interaction term (0.001) is then divided by this group’s instability rate (0.01); or (0.08*0.002)/0.011 = 0.015 (or 1.5%).

  5. In model 3 (Table 5), we recover this estimate as the product of a rise in deportations (0.12) and the interaction term (0.022) – deportation rate x non-family householder – which is then divided by this group’s instability rate (0.02); or (0.12*0.022)/0.02 = 0.132 (or 13.2%).

  6. State-level deportation rates among residents without a metro or county identifier (1.4) are similar and slightly higher than residents with a local identifier (1.3). The largest source of state-level variation among these residents stems from non-metro residents, which suggests caution when interpreting the results beyond metro residents. Excluding residents without a local deportation rate, who are mostly non-metro residents, the results are substantively the same: the likelihood of instability increases in high deportation contexts by 7.5% (p < 0.01). Excluding residents without a local geographic identifier in states with the most sizeable intra-state variation in deportation rates (West Virginia, New Mexico, Mississippi, Indiana, California, Vermont, Utah, and Illinois) yields similar results: the likelihood of instability increases by 7.2% (p < 0.01).

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Funding

Funding was provided by University of California, Santa Cruz Hellman Fellows Program, JPB Foundation and Institute for Research on Poverty. I also acknowledge valuable feedback from Margot Jackson, Jamie Longazel, Pia Orrenius, and participants at the annual meetings of the Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management, the Law and Society Association, and the Population Association of America. Michael Rosenfeld, Aliya Saperstein, Tomás Jiménez, Florencia Torche, Ariela Schachter, Amanda Mireles, Emily Carian, Catherine Sirois, and other participants in Stanford University sociology department workshops also provided valuable feedback. Alexandra Filindra, Molly Scott, and Angela García provided early guidance in this research area. Elena Losada provided helpful feedback on revisions, and anonymous reviewers also helped improve the paper. The usual disclaimers apply.

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    Juan Manuel Pedroza

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Pedroza, J.M. Housing Instability in an Era of Mass Deportations. Popul Res Policy Rev 41, 2645–2681 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-022-09719-1

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