Advertisement

Population Research and Policy Review

, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp 305–325 | Cite as

Economic and Institutional Context and Second Births in Seven European Countries

  • Jonas Wood
  • Karel Neels
  • Jorik Vergauwen
Article

Abstract

The extent to which mothers progress to a second child varies greatly between European countries. Although both institutional and economic context are believed to be partly responsible for these differences, available research on economic conditions and fertility mostly focuses on first births and studies on family policy and fertility have hitherto insufficiently addressed population heterogeneity. Combining longitudinal microdata from the Harmonized Histories with contextual data on labour market uncertainty and family policy, this paper uses discrete-time hazard models to analyse the impact of economic and institutional context on second birth hazards of 22,298 women in 7 European countries between 1970 and 2002. Particular attention is paid to variation in the contextual effects by level of education. We find that aggregate-level unemployment and temporary employment reduce second birth hazards, particularly for low- and medium-level educated women. Family policies are positively related to second birth hazards. Whereas family allowances stimulate second births particularly among low educated mothers, the positive effect of childcare is invariant by level of education.

Keywords

Family formation Second birth Family policy Unemployment Labour market Europe 

References

  1. Adsera, A. (2004). Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions. Journal of Population Economics, 17(1), 17–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Adsera, A. (2011). The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe. Demographic Research, 25(16), 513–544.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Anderson, C. J., & Pontusson, J. (2007). Workers, worries and welfare states: Social protection and job insecurity in 15 OECD countries. European Journal of Political Research, 46, 211–235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Andersson, G., Duvander, A.-Z., & Hank, K. (2003). Do child care characteristics influence continued childbearing in Sweden? An investigation of the quantity, quality, and price dimension. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper WP 2003-013.Google Scholar
  5. Baizan, P. (2009). Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in spain. Demographic Research, 21(27), 803–842.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Becker, G. (1991). A treatise on the family. London: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
  7. Becker, G., & Lewis, H. G. (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. The Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), 279–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bell, D., & Blanchflower, D. (2009). What should be done about rising unemployment in the UK? Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Paper No. 4040.Google Scholar
  9. Billari, F., & Kohler, H.-P. (2004). Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe. Population Studies, 58(2), 161–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Blossfeld, H.-P., Klijzing, E., Mills, M., & Kurz, K. (2005). Globalization, uncertainty and youth in society. Oxford: Routledge.Google Scholar
  11. Cigno, A. (1986). Fertility and the tax-benefit system: A reconsideration of the theory of family taxation. The Economic Journal, 96(384), 1035–1051.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Cigno, A. (1991). Economics of the family. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
  13. De Wachter, D., & Neels, K. (2011). Educational differentials in fertility intentions and outcomes: Family formation in Flanders in the early 1990s. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 9, 227–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Del Boca, D. (2002). The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy. Journal of Population Economics, 15(3), 549–573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Dex, S., Joshi, H., Macran, S., & McCulloch, A. (1998). Women’s employment transitions around child bearing. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 60(1), 79–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Durkheim, E. (1960). The division of labour in society. Glencoe: The Free Press.Google Scholar
  17. Ermisch, J. (1988). The econometric analysis of birth rate dynamics in Britain. The Journal of Human Resources, 23(4), 563–576.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Fagnani, J. (2002). Why do French women have more children than German women? Family policies and attitudes towards child care outside the home. Community, Work & Family, 5(1), 103–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Friedman, D., Hechter, M., & Kanawaza, S. (1994). A theory of the value of children. Demography, 31(3), 375–401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gauthier, A. H. (2002). Family policies in industrialized countries: Is there convergence? Population, 57(3), 447–474.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Gauthier, A. H. (2007). The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: A review of the literature. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(3), 323–346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Gauthier, A. H. (2010). Comparative Family Policy Database, Version 3 [computer file]. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (distributors). Retrieved from www.demogr.mpg.de.
  23. Gauthier, A. H., & Hatzius, J. (1997). Family benefits and fertility: An econometric analysis. Population Studies, 51(3), 295–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Gauthier, A. H., & Tézli, A. (2010). Documentation for the comparative family benefits database 1960-2008. Retrieved from www.demogr.mpg.de.
  25. Ghysels, J., & Van Lancker, W. (2009). Het Mattheüseffect onder de loep: over het ongelijke gebruik van kinderopvang in Vlaanderen. Berichten Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid Herman Deleeck.Google Scholar
  26. Goldstein, J. R., Kreyenfeld, M., Jasilioniene, A., & Örsal, D. K. (2013). Fertility reactions to the ‘Great Recession’ in Europe: recent evidence from order-specific data. Demographic Research, 29(4), 85–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Goldstein, H., Lutz, W., & Testa, M. R. (2003). The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe. Population Research and Policy Review, 22(5–6), 479–496.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Gutiérrez-Domènech, M. (2005). Employment after motherhood: A European comparison. Labour Economics, 12(1), 99–123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Human Fertility Database. (2012). Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany) and Vienna Institute of Demography (Austria). Retrieved from www.humanfertility.org (data downloaded in 2012).
  30. Kamaran, D. D., & Goldstein, J. R. (2010). The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper WP 2010-014.Google Scholar
  31. Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641–680.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Köppen, K. (2006). Second births in western Germany and France. Demographic Research, 14(14), 295–330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kravdal, Ø. (2001). The high fertility of college educated women in Norway: An artefact of the separate modelling of each parity transition. Demographic Research, 5(6), 187–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Kravdal, Ø. (2002). The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway. Demographic Research, 6(10), 263–294.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Kravdal, Ø. (2007). Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues. Demographic Research, 17(9), 211–246.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Kreyenfeld, M. (2002). Time-squeeze, partner effect or selfselection? An investigation into the positive effect of women’s education on second birth risks in West Germany. Demographic Research, 7(2), 15–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Kreyenfeld, M. (2009). Uncertainties in female employment careers and the postponement of parenthood in Germany. European Sociological Review, 26(3), 351–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Kreyenfeld, M., & Andersson, G. (2013). Socioeconomic differences in the unemployment and fertility nexus: A comparison of Denmark and Germany. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper WP 2013-008.Google Scholar
  39. Kreyenfeld, M., Andersson, G., & Pailhé, A. (2012). Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper WP 2012-006.Google Scholar
  40. Kreyenfeld, M., & Hank, K. (2000). Does the availability of childcare influence the employment of mothers? Findings from western Germany. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper WP 2000-003.Google Scholar
  41. Kreyenfeld, M., Hornung, A., & Kubisch, K. (2013). The German generations and gender survey: Some critical reflections on the validity of fertility histories. Comparative Population Studies, 38(1), 3–28.Google Scholar
  42. Lappegård, T. (2002). Education attainment and fertility pattern among Norwegian women. Statistics Norway Department of Social Statistics. Document 2002/18.Google Scholar
  43. Lappegård, T., & Ronsen, M. (2005). The multifaceted impact of education on entry into motherhood. European Journal of Population, 21(1), 31–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Liefbroer, A. C., & Corijn, M. (1999). Who, what, where and when? Specifying the impact of educational attainment and labour force participation on family formation. European Journal of Population, 15(1), 45–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Luci, A., & Thévenon, O. (2012). The impact of family policy packages on fertility trends in developed countries. Institut national d’études démographiques (Ined) Documents de Travail. Document 174.Google Scholar
  46. Macunovich, D. J. (1996). Relative income and price of time: Exploring their effects on US fertility and female labor force participation. Population and Development Review, 22(Supplement), 223–257.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. McDonald, P. (2006). Low fertility and the state: The efficicacy of policy. Population and Development Review, 32(3), 485–510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Mills, M., Rindfuss, R. R., McDonald, P., & Te Velde, E. R. (2011). Why do people postpone parenthood? Reasons and social policy incentives. Human Reproduction Update, 17(6), 848–860.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Neels, K. (2010). Temporal variation in unemployment rates and their association with tempo and quantum of fertility: Some evidence for Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Dallas, Texas.Google Scholar
  50. Neels, K., & De Wachter, D. (2010). Postponement and recuperation of Belgian fertility: how are they related to rising female educational attainment? Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 8, 77–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Neels, K., & Theunynck, Z. (2012a). The educational gradient and the gender differential of parental employment in Norway, France, Belgium, Austria, West-Germany, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Georgia. Paper presented at the European Population Conference 2012, Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar
  52. Neels, K., & Theunynck, Z. (2012b). Gezinsvorming en vrouwelijke arbeidsparticipatie: de opleidingsgradiënt van voltijds werk en attitudes ten aanzien van gezin en werk in 10 Europese landen. Tijdschrift voor Sociologie, 33(3–4), 428–461.Google Scholar
  53. Neels, K., Theunynck, Z., & Wood, J. (2013). Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and subsequent recuperation of fertility in 14 EU countries. International Journal of Public Health, 58(1), 43–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Neels, K., & Wood, J. (2013). Postponement of recuperation of first births in Europe: The effect of economic and institutional contexts over the life-course. Paper presented at the PAA 2013, New Orleans, Louisiana.Google Scholar
  55. Neyer, G., & Andersson, G. (2008). Consequences of family policies on childbearing behavior: Effects or artifacts? Population and Development Review, 34(4), 699–724.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. OECD. (2016). The organisation for economic co-operation and development database: Jobs. Retrieved from https://data.oecd.org/jobs.htm
  57. Özcan, B., Mayer, K. U., & Luedicke, J. (2010). The impact of unemployment on the transition to parenthood. Demographic Research, 23(29), 807–846.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Perelli-Harris, B., Kreyenfeld, M., & Kubisch, K. (2010). Harmonized histories manual for the preparation of comparative fertility and union histories (as part of the Nonmarital Childbearing Project). Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper WP 2010-011.Google Scholar
  59. Polavieja, J. G. (2005). Flexibility or polarization? Temporary employment and job tasks in Spain. Socio-Economic Review, 3(2), 233–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Rindfuss, R. R., & Brewster, K. L. (1996). Childrearing and fertility. Population and Development Review, 22, 258–289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Rindfuss, R. R., Guilkey, D. K., Morgan, S. P., Kravdal, O., & Guzzo, K. B. (2007). Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway. Demography, 44(2), 345–372.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Sobotka, T. (2008). Does persistent low fertility threaten the future of European populations. In J. Surkeyn, P. Deboosere, & B. Van Bavel (Eds.), Demographic challenges for the 21st century. A state of the art in demography (pp. 27–89). Brussels: VUB/Academia Press.Google Scholar
  63. Sobotka, T., & Beaujouan, E. (2014). Two is best? The persistence of a two-child family ideal in Europe. Population and Development Review, 40(3), 391–419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., & Philipov, D. (2011). Economic recession and fertility in the developed world. Population and Development Review, 37(2), 267–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Tausig, M., & Fenwick, R. (1999). Recession and well-being. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 40, 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Testa, M. R. (2007). Childbearing preferences and family issues in Europe: evidence from the Eurobarometer 2006 survey. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 5, 357–379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. UNECE. (2012). Generations and Gender Programme—Contextual Database. Retrieved from http://www.ggp-i.org/contextual-database.html.
  68. UNPD. (2011). World population policies 2011. New York: United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/policy/world-population-policies-2011.shtml.
  69. Van Bavel, B., & Rozanska-Putek, J. (2010). Second birth rates across Europe: interactions between women’s level of education and child care enrolment. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 8, 107–138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Vergauwen, J., Wood, J., De Wachter, D., & Neels, K. (2015). Quality of demographic data in GGS Wave 1. Demographic Research, 32(24), 723–774.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Verick, S. (2009). Who is hit hardest during a financial crisis. The vulnerability of young men and women to unemployment in an economic downturn. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Paper No. 4359, Bonn.Google Scholar
  72. Viitanen, T. K. (2005). Cost of childcare and female employment in the UK. LABOUR, 19(Supplement s1), 149–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Vikat, A. (2004). Women’s labor force attachment and childbearing in Finland. Demographic Research, Special Collection, 3(8), 177–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Wienke, A. (2003). Frailty models. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Working Paper WP 2003-032.Google Scholar
  75. Wienke, A. (2010). Frailty models in survival analysis. Boca Raton, Florida: Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Wood, J., Neels, K., & Kil, T. (2014). The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries. Demographic Research, 31(46), 1365–1416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Wood, J., Vergauwen, J., & Neels, K. (2015). Economic conditions and variation in First Birth Hazards in 22 European Countries between 1970 and 2005. In K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman, J. Haers, & S. Mels (Eds.), Population change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide. Farnham: Ashgate.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Centre for Longitudinal and Life-Course StudiesUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium

Personalised recommendations