We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Only temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which highlights the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.
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We exclude individuals at older ages in which age-specific migration rates are extremely low.
In preliminary analyses, we estimated our overall model (Table 2, Specification A) with age and household wealth modeled as quadratic functions, since prior research suggests a nonlinear relationship between migration odds and these variables exists in some contexts. We did not find evidence of a nonlinear relationship in either case, so we proceed with the more parsimonious model.
If data for the household head were not present, the characteristics of the oldest present adult were used.
According to Makarim (2000), the rice yield in 1996, near the time IFLS2 was fielded, was 5.36 tones per hectare (t/ha) on Java. This figure is more than 0.6 t/ha higher than the yield across Indonesia (4.7 t/ha). For reference, also note that with the exception of Bali (5.36 t/ha), the highest rice yield among the provinces outside of Java was 4.77 t/ha (South Sulawesi), and the lowest was 2.63 t/ha (Central Kalimantan).
This figure compares irrigated farmland in 2007. On Java, the average size of dry land farms is 0.30 ha. In contrast, off Java the average dry land farm size is 0.99 ha for farms engaged in food/horticultural production and 1.20 ha for farms growing perennial crops (OECD 2012).
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An erratum to this article is available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0282-2.
An erratum to this article is available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0280-4.
See Table 6.
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Thiede, B.C., Gray, C.L. Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia. Popul Environ 39, 147–172 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0265-8
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